种植并研究了一批植物,以检查它们的生长状况。对于每株植物,收集了两个指标的数据:平均根毛长度 x mm 以及根部含钾量 y mg。下表显示了来自 8 株植物随机样本的数据。

  1. (a)
    1. (i)

      计算平均根毛长度总体方差的无偏估计。

    2. (ii)

      求根部钾含量的总体方差的无偏估计的表达式,其形式为

      1A[(B+t2)−(C+t)2D],\frac{1}{A}\left[(B+t^2)-\frac{(C+t)^2}{D}\right],

      其中 AA、BB、CC 和 DD 是待确定的正整数。

    3. 现在已知 t=17t=17。

  2. (b)

    绘制 y 关于 x 的散点图。写出 y 与 x 之间的积矩相关系数的值。

  3. (c)

    结合你在第 (b) 问中的解答,解释形如 y=mx+ky = m x + k(其中 mm 和 kk 为常数)的方程是否能准确地刻画 x 和 y 之间的关系。

  4. (d)

    该数据改用回归方程 y=pln⁡x+qy = p \ln x + q 进行建模。求 p 和 q 的值,以及相应积矩相关系数的值。

  5. (e)

    给出第 (d) 问中求得的 p 值的实际情境解释。

  6. (f)

    由此,求一株平均根毛长度为 30.0 mm 的植物根部中钾含量的估计值。说明你的估计是否可靠。

  7. (g)

    现在需要估算一株根部含有 28 mg 钾的植物的平均根毛长度。解释使用第 (d) 问中的方程来获得这一估算值是否合适。

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完整解法

10(a)(i)

1. Calculate the sum and sum of squares of the given data values.

∑x=3.3+3.9+7.5+8.1+13.3+22.1+32.2+36.1=126.5\sum x = 3.3 + 3.9 + 7.5 + 8.1 + 13.3 + 22.1 + 32.2 + 36.1 = 126.5
∑x2=3.32+3.92+7.52+8.12+13.32+22.12+32.22+36.12=3153.31\sum x^2 = 3.3^2 + 3.9^2 + 7.5^2 + 8.1^2 + 13.3^2 + 22.1^2 + 32.2^2 + 36.1^2 = 3153.31
n=8n = 8

2. Apply the formula for the unbiased estimate of the population variance (or obtain directly via a graphing calculator).

s2=1n−1(∑x2−(∑x)2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n} \right)
s2=17(3153.31−126.528)s^2 = \frac{1}{7} \left( 3153.31 - \frac{126.5^2}{8} \right)
s2=1153.028757s^2 = \frac{1153.02875}{7}
s2=164.718...≈165 (to 3 s.f.)s^2 = 164.718... \approx 165 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

165 (to 3 s.f.)

10(a)(ii)

1. Calculate the sum of $y$ and the sum of $y^2$ in terms of $t$.

∑y=9+t+25+27+33+37+41+44=216+t\sum y = 9 + t + 25 + 27 + 33 + 37 + 41 + 44 = 216 + t
∑y2=92+t2+252+272+332+372+412+442\sum y^2 = 9^2 + t^2 + 25^2 + 27^2 + 33^2 + 37^2 + 41^2 + 44^2
∑y2=81+t2+625+729+1089+1369+1681+1936=7510+t2\sum y^2 = 81 + t^2 + 625 + 729 + 1089 + 1369 + 1681 + 1936 = 7510 + t^2

2. Substitute the sums into the formula for the unbiased estimate of population variance.

sy2=1n−1[∑y2−(∑y)2n]s_y^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left[ \sum y^2 - \frac{(\sum y)^2}{n} \right]
sy2=18−1[(7510+t2)−(216+t)28]s_y^2 = \frac{1}{8-1} \left[ (7510 + t^2) - \frac{(216 + t)^2}{8} \right]
sy2=17[(7510+t2)−(216+t)28]s_y^2 = \frac{1}{7}\left[(7510+t^2)-\frac{(216+t)^2}{8}\right]

答案

17[(7510+t2)−(216+t)28]\frac{1}{7}\left[(7510+t^2)-\frac{(216+t)^2}{8}\right]
A=7A=7, B=7510B=7510, C=216C=216, D=8D=8

10(b)

1. Sketch the scatter diagram for the given data.

[Sketch of a scatter diagram with the horizontal axis labelled xx (average root hair length) and the vertical axis labelled yy (amount of potassium). The 8 points are plotted at approximately (3.3,9)(3.3, 9), (3.9,17)(3.9, 17), (7.5,25)(7.5, 25), (8.1,27)(8.1, 27), (13.3,33)(13.3, 33), (22.1,37)(22.1, 37), (32.2,41)(32.2, 41), and (36.1,44)(36.1, 44), showing a positive, non-linear trend with a decreasing gradient.]

2. Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient using a graphing calculator.

Entering the 8 pairs of (x,y)(x, y) values into the statistical application of a graphing calculator gives the product moment correlation coefficient rr.
r=0.90969…r = 0.90969\dots
r≈0.910 (to 3 s.f.)r \approx 0.910 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

[A valid scatter diagram showing yy plotted against xx with axes properly labelled and all 8 points correctly plotted]

r=0.910r = 0.910

10(c)

1. Evaluate the accuracy of a linear model by referencing the scatter diagram's shape and the value of the product moment correlation coefficient.

From part (b), the product moment correlation coefficient is r≈0.910r \approx 0.910. Although this indicates a fairly strong positive correlation, the scatter diagram visually demonstrates that the data points follow a distinct curvilinear path rather than a straight line. Thus, a linear equation y=mx+ky = mx + k is not appropriate.

答案

No. Although the product moment correlation coefficient (r≈0.910r \approx 0.910) is relatively high, the scatter diagram shows the points following a clear curvilinear trend. Therefore, a linear model y=mx+ky = mx + k does not provide an accurate representation of the relationship.

10(d)

1. Use a graphing calculator to find the coefficients for the regression line of $y$ on $\ln x$.

Substitute t=17t = 17 into the dataset. Define X=ln⁡xX = \ln x and Y=yY = y. Entering the data pairs (ln⁡x,y)(\ln x, y) into the graphing calculator:

p≈12.069p \approx 12.069
q≈−0.14806q \approx -0.14806

2. State the product moment correlation coefficient (PMCC) from the calculator.

r≈0.94972r \approx 0.94972

Rounding the values to 3 significant figures, we get:
p=12.1p = 12.1
q=−0.148q = -0.148
r=0.950r = 0.950

答案

p=12.1p = 12.1, q=−0.148q = -0.148, r=0.950r = 0.950

10(e)

1. Interpret the gradient $p$ in the context of the variables $x$ and $y$.

In the regression equation y=pln⁡x+qy = p \ln x + q, pp is the gradient of the regression line of yy on ln⁡x\ln x. Contextually, yy is the amount of potassium in mg, and xx is the average root hair length in mm. Thus, pp is the rate of change of yy with respect to ln⁡x\ln x.

答案

The value pp represents the estimated increase in the amount of potassium (in mg) for every 1 unit increase in the natural logarithm of the average root hair length, ln⁡x\ln x.

10(f)

1. Substitute $x = 30.0$ into the regression equation found in part (d) to estimate $y$.

From part (d), the regression line of yy on ln⁡x\ln x is y=14.773ln⁡x−6.712y = 14.773 \ln x - 6.712.
When x=30.0x = 30.0,
y=14.773ln⁡(30.0)−6.712y = 14.773 \ln(30.0) - 6.712
y=43.534...y = 43.534...
y≈43.5 mg (to 3 s.f.)y \approx 43.5\text{ mg (to 3 s.f.)}

2. Explain the reliability of the estimate based on the data range and goodness of fit.

Since x=30.0x = 30.0 lies within the given data range of xx (3.3≤x≤36.13.3 \le x \le 36.1), the prediction is an interpolation.
Furthermore, the product moment correlation coefficient calculated in part (d) is r≈0.998r \approx 0.998, which is very close to 11, indicating a strong linear fit for the model y=pln⁡x+qy = p \ln x + q.
Therefore, the estimate is reliable.

答案

Estimated amount of potassium ≈43.5 mg\approx 43.5\text{ mg}. The estimate is reliable because x=30.0x = 30.0 falls within the data range (interpolation) and the correlation coefficient is close to 11.

10(g)

1. State whether it is appropriate and explain why based on the choice of the dependent and independent variables for regression.

It is not appropriate. The equation in part (d) is the regression line of yy on ln⁡x\ln x, which is meant to estimate yy given xx.
To estimate xx given yy, the regression line of ln⁡x\ln x on yy should be used instead.

答案

No. To estimate xx given yy, the regression line of ln⁡x\ln x on yy should be used instead of yy on ln⁡x\ln x.

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