为了提高对比度,用一种化学制剂处理了一卷旧胶片。下表显示了从该胶片中提取的九个样本中,化学制剂的使用量 xx ml 与对比度指数 yy(取值在 0(无对比度)和 100(最大对比度)之间)的数据。
xx1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
yy194664738055889395

  1. (i)

    绘制该数据的散点图。

  2. (ii)

    现发现其中一个胶片样本损坏并产生了错误的结果。

    在你的散点图上标注该对应点为 PP。

  3. (iii)

    在所有后续计算中,省略数据点 PP。

    计算 yy 关于 xx 的回归方程。

  4. (iv)

    估计当 x=5.0x = 5.0 时 yy 的值,并评价线性模型的适用性。

  5. (v)

    有建议认为 xx 与 yy 之间的关系可以用以下模型建模:

    A:y=a+bx,B:y=axb.\begin{aligned} &\text{A:} \quad y = a + \frac{b}{x}, \\ &\text{B:} \quad y = ax^b. \end{aligned}

    求模型 A 和 B 的积矩相关系数的值,并确定哪一个是更好的模型。

  6. (vi)

    使用回归线对对比度指数为 75 时所使用的化学制剂用量给出尽可能最好的估计。评价你的估计的可靠性。

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完整解法

11(i)

1. Set up and label the axes with appropriate scales.

Draw a horizontal xx-axis covering the range 1.01.0 to 5.05.0 and a vertical yy-axis covering the range 00 to 100100. Label the axes xx and yy respectively.

2. Plot the given data points.

Plot the following coordinates as points or small crosses on the grid:
(1.0,19)(1.0, 19), (1.5,46)(1.5, 46), (2.0,64)(2.0, 64), (2.5,73)(2.5, 73), (3.0,80)(3.0, 80), (3.5,55)(3.5, 55), (4.0,88)(4.0, 88), (4.5,93)(4.5, 93), (5.0,95)(5.0, 95).

答案

A scatter diagram with xx on the horizontal axis (from 0 to 5) and yy on the vertical axis (from 0 to 100), showing the 9 data points accurately plotted.

11(ii)

1. Identify the data point that does not follow the general trend.

By observing the table or the scatter diagram, the value of yy generally increases as xx increases. However, at x=3.5x = 3.5, the value y=55y = 55 is significantly lower than the surrounding points (e.g., y=80y = 80 at x=3.0x = 3.0 and y=88y = 88 at x=4.0x = 4.0). Therefore, (3.5,55)(3.5, 55) is the damaged sample.

答案

The point (3.5,55)(3.5, 55) is identified as the outlier and should be labelled as PP on the scatter diagram.

11(iii)

1. Identify the damaged point $P$ from the earlier part

From the data table, the point at x=3.5x=3.5 has a contrast index y=55y=55, which is anomalously low compared to the increasing trend of the surrounding points. Thus, PP is (3.5,55)(3.5, 55).

2. Calculate the regression line of $y$ on $x$ using the graphing calculator

Omitting P(3.5,55)P(3.5, 55), we input the remaining 88 data pairs into the graphing calculator to find the linear regression equation:
y=a+bxy = a + bx
a=20.8789…a = 20.8789\dots
b=16.6369…b = 16.6369\dots
⇒y=16.6369x+20.8789\Rightarrow y = 16.6369x + 20.8789
y=16.6x+20.9 (to 3 s.f.)y = 16.6x + 20.9 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

y=16.6x+20.9y = 16.6x + 20.9

11(iv)

1. Find the equation of the regression line of $y$ on $x$ from the earlier part (omitting point $P$).

From part (iii), the damaged sample point is clearly P(3.5,55)P(3.5, 55) since it does not follow the overall trend. Omitting PP, we input the remaining 8 data points into a graphing calculator to calculate the regression line of yy on xx:
y=16.637x+20.879y = 16.637x + 20.879

2. Substitute $x = 5.0$ to estimate the value of $y$.

Substitute x=5.0x = 5.0 into the regression equation:
y=16.637(5.0)+20.879y = 16.637(5.0) + 20.879
y≈104.06≈104 (to 3 s.f.)y \approx 104.06 \approx 104 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the suitability of the linear model based on the estimated value and the given context.

The problem states that the contrast index yy takes values between 0 and a maximum of 100.

The estimated value of y=104y = 104 exceeds this maximum possible value. Therefore, the linear model is not suitable for predicting yy at higher values of xx (it does not reflect the tapering effect observed in the real data).

答案

y≈104y \approx 104

The linear model is not suitable as the estimated value exceeds the maximum possible contrast index of 100.

11(v)

1. Transform model A to a linear form and calculate its product moment correlation coefficient using a graphing calculator.

For Model A, y=a+bxy = a + \frac{b}{x}, the relationship is linear between 1x\frac{1}{x} and yy.

Omitting the damaged data point P(3.5,55)P(3.5, 55), we input the 88 remaining pairs of (1x,y)\left(\frac{1}{x}, y\right) into the graphing calculator:
xx: 1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,4.0,4.5,5.01.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 4.0, 4.5, 5.0
yy: 19,46,64,73,80,88,93,9519, 46, 64, 73, 80, 88, 93, 95

The PMCC for model A is:
rA=−0.99786≈−0.998r_A = -0.99786 \approx -0.998 (to 3 s.f.)

2. Transform model B to a linear form and calculate its product moment correlation coefficient.

For Model B, y=axby = ax^b, taking the natural logarithm on both sides gives ln⁡y=ln⁡a+bln⁡x\ln y = \ln a + b \ln x. The relationship is linear between ln⁡x\ln x and ln⁡y\ln y.

Inputting the 88 pairs of (ln⁡x,ln⁡y)(\ln x, \ln y) into the graphing calculator:
rB=0.92370≈0.924r_B = 0.92370 \approx 0.924 (to 3 s.f.)

3. Compare the absolute values of the correlation coefficients to choose the better model.

To determine the strength of the linear correlation, we compare the magnitudes ∣rA∣|r_A| and ∣rB∣|r_B|.

Since ∣rA∣≈0.998|r_A| \approx 0.998 is closer to 11 than ∣rB∣≈0.924|r_B| \approx 0.924, the linearised fit for Model A is stronger.

Thus, Model A is the better model.

答案

PMCC for A is −0.998-0.998, PMCC for B is 0.9240.924. Model A is the better model.

11(vi)

1. Identify the appropriate regression model and obtain the regression line equation.

From part (v), Model A (y=a+bxy = a + \frac{b}{x}) is the better model as its product moment correlation coefficient (r≈−0.998r \approx -0.998) is closer to ±1\pm 1.
Since xx (amount of chemical applied) is a controlled variable, we use the regression line of yy on 1x\frac{1}{x}.
Using a graphing calculator with the data (excluding outlier point PP):
y=112.4608−95.6510xy = 112.4608 - \frac{95.6510}{x}

2. Substitute $y=75$ to estimate the amount of chemical applied ($x$).

Substitute y=75y = 75 into the regression line equation:
75=112.4608−95.6510x75 = 112.4608 - \frac{95.6510}{x}
95.6510x=37.4608\frac{95.6510}{x} = 37.4608
x=2.5533≈2.55 ml (to 3 s.f.)x = 2.5533 \approx 2.55 \text{ ml (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.

The estimate is reliable because y=75y = 75 lies within the range of given data values for yy (19≤y≤9519 \le y \le 95), meaning this is a case of interpolation.
Additionally, the correlation coefficient for Model A (r≈−0.998r \approx -0.998) is very close to −1-1, indicating a very strong linear relationship.

答案

Estimate: 2.552.55 ml. The estimate is reliable because y=75y = 75 is within the data range (interpolation) and the model has a strong linear correlation (∣r∣≈0.998|r| \approx 0.998).

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