An old film roll is treated with a chemical in order to improve the contrast. The table below shows the amount of chemical applied, xx ml, and the contrast index, yy, which takes values between 0 (no contrast) and 100 (maximum contrast), for nine samples drawn from the film.
xx1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
yy194664738055889395

  1. (i)

    Draw a scatter diagram for the data.

  2. (ii)

    It is discovered that one of the samples of film was damaged and produced an incorrect result.

    Indicate the corresponding point on your scatter diagram by labelling it as PP.

  3. (iii)

    In all subsequent calculations, data point PP is omitted.

    Calculate the equation of the regression line of yy on xx.

  4. (iv)

    Estimate the value of yy when x=5.0x = 5.0, and comment on the suitability of the linear model.

  5. (v)

    It is suggested that the relationship between xx and yy can be modelled by

    A:y=a+bx,B:y=axb.\begin{aligned} &\text{A:} \quad y = a + \frac{b}{x}, \\ &\text{B:} \quad y = ax^b. \end{aligned}

    Find the value of the product moment correlation coefficient for models A and B, and determine which is the better model.

  6. (vi)

    Use a regression line to give the best estimate that you can of the amount of chemical applied when the contrast index is 75. Comment on the reliability of your estimate.

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Worked solution

11(i)

1. Set up and label the axes with appropriate scales.

Draw a horizontal xx-axis covering the range 1.01.0 to 5.05.0 and a vertical yy-axis covering the range 00 to 100100. Label the axes xx and yy respectively.

2. Plot the given data points.

Plot the following coordinates as points or small crosses on the grid:
(1.0,19)(1.0, 19), (1.5,46)(1.5, 46), (2.0,64)(2.0, 64), (2.5,73)(2.5, 73), (3.0,80)(3.0, 80), (3.5,55)(3.5, 55), (4.0,88)(4.0, 88), (4.5,93)(4.5, 93), (5.0,95)(5.0, 95).

Answer

A scatter diagram with xx on the horizontal axis (from 0 to 5) and yy on the vertical axis (from 0 to 100), showing the 9 data points accurately plotted.

11(ii)

1. Identify the data point that does not follow the general trend.

By observing the table or the scatter diagram, the value of yy generally increases as xx increases. However, at x=3.5x = 3.5, the value y=55y = 55 is significantly lower than the surrounding points (e.g., y=80y = 80 at x=3.0x = 3.0 and y=88y = 88 at x=4.0x = 4.0). Therefore, (3.5,55)(3.5, 55) is the damaged sample.

Answer

The point (3.5,55)(3.5, 55) is identified as the outlier and should be labelled as PP on the scatter diagram.

11(iii)

1. Identify the damaged point $P$ from the earlier part

From the data table, the point at x=3.5x=3.5 has a contrast index y=55y=55, which is anomalously low compared to the increasing trend of the surrounding points. Thus, PP is (3.5,55)(3.5, 55).

2. Calculate the regression line of $y$ on $x$ using the graphing calculator

Omitting P(3.5,55)P(3.5, 55), we input the remaining 88 data pairs into the graphing calculator to find the linear regression equation:
y=a+bxy = a + bx
a=20.8789…a = 20.8789\dots
b=16.6369…b = 16.6369\dots
⇒y=16.6369x+20.8789\Rightarrow y = 16.6369x + 20.8789
y=16.6x+20.9 (to 3 s.f.)y = 16.6x + 20.9 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

y=16.6x+20.9y = 16.6x + 20.9

11(iv)

1. Find the equation of the regression line of $y$ on $x$ from the earlier part (omitting point $P$).

From part (iii), the damaged sample point is clearly P(3.5,55)P(3.5, 55) since it does not follow the overall trend. Omitting PP, we input the remaining 8 data points into a graphing calculator to calculate the regression line of yy on xx:
y=16.637x+20.879y = 16.637x + 20.879

2. Substitute $x = 5.0$ to estimate the value of $y$.

Substitute x=5.0x = 5.0 into the regression equation:
y=16.637(5.0)+20.879y = 16.637(5.0) + 20.879
y≈104.06≈104 (to 3 s.f.)y \approx 104.06 \approx 104 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the suitability of the linear model based on the estimated value and the given context.

The problem states that the contrast index yy takes values between 0 and a maximum of 100.

The estimated value of y=104y = 104 exceeds this maximum possible value. Therefore, the linear model is not suitable for predicting yy at higher values of xx (it does not reflect the tapering effect observed in the real data).

Answer

y≈104y \approx 104

The linear model is not suitable as the estimated value exceeds the maximum possible contrast index of 100.

11(v)

1. Transform model A to a linear form and calculate its product moment correlation coefficient using a graphing calculator.

For Model A, y=a+bxy = a + \frac{b}{x}, the relationship is linear between 1x\frac{1}{x} and yy.

Omitting the damaged data point P(3.5,55)P(3.5, 55), we input the 88 remaining pairs of (1x,y)\left(\frac{1}{x}, y\right) into the graphing calculator:
xx: 1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,4.0,4.5,5.01.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 4.0, 4.5, 5.0
yy: 19,46,64,73,80,88,93,9519, 46, 64, 73, 80, 88, 93, 95

The PMCC for model A is:
rA=−0.99786≈−0.998r_A = -0.99786 \approx -0.998 (to 3 s.f.)

2. Transform model B to a linear form and calculate its product moment correlation coefficient.

For Model B, y=axby = ax^b, taking the natural logarithm on both sides gives ln⁡y=ln⁡a+bln⁡x\ln y = \ln a + b \ln x. The relationship is linear between ln⁡x\ln x and ln⁡y\ln y.

Inputting the 88 pairs of (ln⁡x,ln⁡y)(\ln x, \ln y) into the graphing calculator:
rB=0.92370≈0.924r_B = 0.92370 \approx 0.924 (to 3 s.f.)

3. Compare the absolute values of the correlation coefficients to choose the better model.

To determine the strength of the linear correlation, we compare the magnitudes ∣rA∣|r_A| and ∣rB∣|r_B|.

Since ∣rA∣≈0.998|r_A| \approx 0.998 is closer to 11 than ∣rB∣≈0.924|r_B| \approx 0.924, the linearised fit for Model A is stronger.

Thus, Model A is the better model.

Answer

PMCC for A is −0.998-0.998, PMCC for B is 0.9240.924. Model A is the better model.

11(vi)

1. Identify the appropriate regression model and obtain the regression line equation.

From part (v), Model A (y=a+bxy = a + \frac{b}{x}) is the better model as its product moment correlation coefficient (r≈−0.998r \approx -0.998) is closer to ±1\pm 1.
Since xx (amount of chemical applied) is a controlled variable, we use the regression line of yy on 1x\frac{1}{x}.
Using a graphing calculator with the data (excluding outlier point PP):
y=112.4608−95.6510xy = 112.4608 - \frac{95.6510}{x}

2. Substitute $y=75$ to estimate the amount of chemical applied ($x$).

Substitute y=75y = 75 into the regression line equation:
75=112.4608−95.6510x75 = 112.4608 - \frac{95.6510}{x}
95.6510x=37.4608\frac{95.6510}{x} = 37.4608
x=2.5533≈2.55 ml (to 3 s.f.)x = 2.5533 \approx 2.55 \text{ ml (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.

The estimate is reliable because y=75y = 75 lies within the range of given data values for yy (19≤y≤9519 \le y \le 95), meaning this is a case of interpolation.
Additionally, the correlation coefficient for Model A (r≈−0.998r \approx -0.998) is very close to −1-1, indicating a very strong linear relationship.

Answer

Estimate: 2.552.55 ml. The estimate is reliable because y=75y = 75 is within the data range (interpolation) and the model has a strong linear correlation (∣r∣≈0.998|r| \approx 0.998).

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