An old film roll is treated with a chemical in order to improve the contrast. The table below shows the amount of chemical applied, ml, and the contrast index, , which takes values between 0 (no contrast) and 100 (maximum contrast), for nine samples drawn from the film.
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 19 46 64 73 80 55 88 93 95
| 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 46 | 64 | 73 | 80 | 55 | 88 | 93 | 95 |
- (i)
Draw a scatter diagram for the data.
- (ii)
It is discovered that one of the samples of film was damaged and produced an incorrect result.
Indicate the corresponding point on your scatter diagram by labelling it as .
- (iii)
In all subsequent calculations, data point is omitted.
Calculate the equation of the regression line of on .
- (iv)
Estimate the value of when , and comment on the suitability of the linear model.
- (v)
It is suggested that the relationship between and can be modelled by
Find the value of the product moment correlation coefficient for models A and B, and determine which is the better model.
- (vi)
Use a regression line to give the best estimate that you can of the amount of chemical applied when the contrast index is 75. Comment on the reliability of your estimate.
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Worked solution
11(i)
1. Set up and label the axes with appropriate scales.
Draw a horizontal -axis covering the range to and a vertical -axis covering the range to . Label the axes and respectively.
2. Plot the given data points.
Plot the following coordinates as points or small crosses on the grid:
, , , , , , , , .
A scatter diagram with on the horizontal axis (from 0 to 5) and on the vertical axis (from 0 to 100), showing the 9 data points accurately plotted.
11(ii)
1. Identify the data point that does not follow the general trend.
By observing the table or the scatter diagram, the value of generally increases as increases. However, at , the value is significantly lower than the surrounding points (e.g., at and at ). Therefore, is the damaged sample.
The point is identified as the outlier and should be labelled as on the scatter diagram.
11(iii)
1. Identify the damaged point $P$ from the earlier part
From the data table, the point at has a contrast index , which is anomalously low compared to the increasing trend of the surrounding points. Thus, is .
2. Calculate the regression line of $y$ on $x$ using the graphing calculator
Omitting , we input the remaining data pairs into the graphing calculator to find the linear regression equation:
11(iv)
1. Find the equation of the regression line of $y$ on $x$ from the earlier part (omitting point $P$).
From part (iii), the damaged sample point is clearly since it does not follow the overall trend. Omitting , we input the remaining 8 data points into a graphing calculator to calculate the regression line of on :
2. Substitute $x = 5.0$ to estimate the value of $y$.
Substitute into the regression equation:
3. Comment on the suitability of the linear model based on the estimated value and the given context.
The problem states that the contrast index takes values between 0 and a maximum of 100.
The estimated value of exceeds this maximum possible value. Therefore, the linear model is not suitable for predicting at higher values of (it does not reflect the tapering effect observed in the real data).
The linear model is not suitable as the estimated value exceeds the maximum possible contrast index of 100.
11(v)
1. Transform model A to a linear form and calculate its product moment correlation coefficient using a graphing calculator.
For Model A, , the relationship is linear between and .
Omitting the damaged data point , we input the remaining pairs of into the graphing calculator:
:
:
The PMCC for model A is:
(to 3 s.f.)
2. Transform model B to a linear form and calculate its product moment correlation coefficient.
For Model B, , taking the natural logarithm on both sides gives . The relationship is linear between and .
Inputting the pairs of into the graphing calculator:
(to 3 s.f.)
3. Compare the absolute values of the correlation coefficients to choose the better model.
To determine the strength of the linear correlation, we compare the magnitudes and .
Since is closer to than , the linearised fit for Model A is stronger.
Thus, Model A is the better model.
PMCC for A is , PMCC for B is . Model A is the better model.
11(vi)
1. Identify the appropriate regression model and obtain the regression line equation.
From part (v), Model A () is the better model as its product moment correlation coefficient () is closer to .
Since (amount of chemical applied) is a controlled variable, we use the regression line of on .
Using a graphing calculator with the data (excluding outlier point ):
2. Substitute $y=75$ to estimate the amount of chemical applied ($x$).
Substitute into the regression line equation:
3. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.
The estimate is reliable because lies within the range of given data values for (), meaning this is a case of interpolation.
Additionally, the correlation coefficient for Model A () is very close to , indicating a very strong linear relationship.
Estimate: ml. The estimate is reliable because is within the data range (interpolation) and the model has a strong linear correlation ().
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