一个均匀的正方体骰子,其各个面上分别标有四个数字 1、2、3 和 4 之一。投掷该骰子一次,朝上的面上的数字为得分 。已知 的众数是 2,且 。求 的概率分布。
- (i)
在嘉年华的一个游戏中,玩家重复投掷一个正方体骰子。如果 是一个奇数,玩家输掉游戏且游戏结束。否则,玩家继续投掷骰子,直到掷出 '4' 且游戏结束。设 为玩家投掷出第一个 '4' 所需的投掷次数。如果玩家输掉了游戏,则 。
证明 。
- (ii)
已知对于 ,。
若 ,求 。
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完整解法
11(i)
1. Deduce the probability distribution of $T$ from the main stem.
From the main stem, the fair cubical die has 6 faces, so probabilities are multiples of .
Given , there is 1 face labelled '1' and 1 face labelled '4'.
This leaves faces for '2' and '3'.
Since the die contains all four numbers and the mode is 2, '2' must appear on more faces than '3'.
Thus, there are 3 faces for '2' and 1 face for '3'.
Therefore:
2. Find the probability of throwing an odd number and the probability of throwing a '2'.
The player throws an odd number if or .
The player continues to throw if , which has probability .
3. Formulate the probability $\text{P}(Y=0)$ as an infinite series.
The event occurs if the player loses the game. This happens if an odd number is thrown before a '4'.
This corresponds to throwing a sequence of consecutive '2's followed by an odd number, for any .
Summing these probabilities for all possible values of :
4. Evaluate the sum to infinity to prove the given result.
This is an infinite geometric series with first term and common ratio .
Using the sum to infinity formula :
11(ii)
1. Deduce the probability $\text{P}(T=2)$ from the initial context.
A cubical die has 6 faces. Given , these outcomes account for 2 faces.
The remaining 4 faces are labelled with 2 and 3, meaning .
Since 2 is the mode, it must appear on more faces than any other number. Hence, 2 is on 3 faces and 3 is on 1 face.
2. Determine the general formula for $\text{P}(Y=y)$ when $y \ge 1$.
For the player to win and end the game on the -th throw, they must roll a '2' for the first throws and a '4' on the -th throw.
Since the throws are independent:
3. Express $\text{E}(Y^2)$ as an infinite series.
The definition of the expected value of is:
Substituting the expression for :
4. Evaluate $\text{E}(Y^2)$ using the given identity.
The given identity is , which can be written as .
Substituting :
Thus, .
5. Compute $\text{Var}(Y)$ using the standard variance formula.
Using the variance formula and the given :
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