一个均匀的正方体骰子,其各个面上分别标有四个数字 1、2、3 和 4 之一。投掷该骰子一次,朝上的面上的数字为得分 TT。已知 TT 的众数是 2,且 P(T=1)=P(T=4)=16\text{P}(T = 1) = \text{P}(T = 4) = \frac{1}{6}。求 TT 的概率分布。

  1. (i)

    在嘉年华的一个游戏中,玩家重复投掷一个正方体骰子。如果 TT 是一个奇数,玩家输掉游戏且游戏结束。否则,玩家继续投掷骰子,直到掷出 '4' 且游戏结束。设 YY 为玩家投掷出第一个 '4' 所需的投掷次数。如果玩家输掉了游戏,则 Y=0Y = 0。

    证明 P(Y=0)=23\text{P}(Y = 0) = \frac{2}{3}。

  2. (ii)

    已知对于 ∣x∣<1|x| < 1,12+22x+32x2+42x3+⋯=1+x(1−x)31^2 + 2^2 x + 3^2 x^2 + 4^2 x^3 + \dots = \frac{1 + x}{(1 - x)^3}。

    若 E(Y)=23\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2}{3},求 Var(Y)\text{Var}(Y)。

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完整解法

11(i)

1. Deduce the probability distribution of $T$ from the main stem.

From the main stem, the fair cubical die has 6 faces, so probabilities are multiples of 16\frac{1}{6}.
Given P(T=1)=P(T=4)=16\text{P}(T=1) = \text{P}(T=4) = \frac{1}{6}, there is 1 face labelled '1' and 1 face labelled '4'.
This leaves 6−1−1=46 - 1 - 1 = 4 faces for '2' and '3'.
Since the die contains all four numbers and the mode is 2, '2' must appear on more faces than '3'.
Thus, there are 3 faces for '2' and 1 face for '3'.
Therefore:
P(T=1)=16\text{P}(T=1) = \frac{1}{6}
P(T=2)=36=12\text{P}(T=2) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2}
P(T=3)=16\text{P}(T=3) = \frac{1}{6}
P(T=4)=16\text{P}(T=4) = \frac{1}{6}

2. Find the probability of throwing an odd number and the probability of throwing a '2'.

The player throws an odd number if T=1T=1 or T=3T=3.
P(odd)=P(T=1)+P(T=3)=16+16=13\text{P}(\text{odd}) = \text{P}(T=1) + \text{P}(T=3) = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{1}{3}
The player continues to throw if T=2T=2, which has probability P(T=2)=12\text{P}(T=2) = \frac{1}{2}.

3. Formulate the probability $\text{P}(Y=0)$ as an infinite series.

The event Y=0Y=0 occurs if the player loses the game. This happens if an odd number is thrown before a '4'.
This corresponds to throwing a sequence of k−1k-1 consecutive '2's followed by an odd number, for any k≥1k \ge 1.
P(lose on k-th throw)=[P(T=2)]k−1×P(odd)=(12)k−1(13)\text{P}(\text{lose on } k\text{-th throw}) = \left[ \text{P}(T=2) \right]^{k-1} \times \text{P}(\text{odd}) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{k-1} \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)
Summing these probabilities for all possible values of kk:
P(Y=0)=∑k=1∞(12)k−1(13)\text{P}(Y=0) = \sum_{k=1}^\infty \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{k-1} \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)
P(Y=0)=13+(12)(13)+(12)2(13)+…\text{P}(Y=0) = \frac{1}{3} + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) + \dots

4. Evaluate the sum to infinity to prove the given result.

This is an infinite geometric series with first term a=13a = \frac{1}{3} and common ratio r=12r = \frac{1}{2}.
Using the sum to infinity formula S∞=a1−rS_\infty = \frac{a}{1 - r}:
P(Y=0)=131−12\text{P}(Y=0) = \frac{\frac{1}{3}}{1 - \frac{1}{2}}
P(Y=0)=1312=23 (shown)\text{P}(Y=0) = \frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{1}{2}} = \frac{2}{3} \text{ (shown)}

答案

P(Y=0)=23 (shown)\text{P}(Y=0) = \frac{2}{3} \text{ (shown)}

11(ii)

1. Deduce the probability $\text{P}(T=2)$ from the initial context.

A cubical die has 6 faces. Given P(T=1)=P(T=4)=16\text{P}(T=1) = \text{P}(T=4) = \frac{1}{6}, these outcomes account for 2 faces.
The remaining 4 faces are labelled with 2 and 3, meaning P(T=2)+P(T=3)=1−26=46\text{P}(T=2) + \text{P}(T=3) = 1 - \frac{2}{6} = \frac{4}{6}.
Since 2 is the mode, it must appear on more faces than any other number. Hence, 2 is on 3 faces and 3 is on 1 face.
P(T=2)=36=12\text{P}(T=2) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2}

2. Determine the general formula for $\text{P}(Y=y)$ when $y \ge 1$.

For the player to win and end the game on the yy-th throw, they must roll a '2' for the first y−1y-1 throws and a '4' on the yy-th throw.
Since the throws are independent:
P(Y=y)=[P(T=2)]y−1⋅P(T=4)=(12)y−1(16)for y≥1\text{P}(Y = y) = [\text{P}(T=2)]^{y-1} \cdot \text{P}(T=4) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{y-1} \left(\frac{1}{6}\right) \quad \text{for } y \ge 1

3. Express $\text{E}(Y^2)$ as an infinite series.

The definition of the expected value of Y2Y^2 is:
E(Y2)=02⋅P(Y=0)+∑y=1∞y2P(Y=y)\text{E}(Y^2) = 0^2 \cdot \text{P}(Y=0) + \sum_{y=1}^{\infty} y^2 \text{P}(Y=y)
Substituting the expression for P(Y=y)\text{P}(Y=y):
E(Y2)=0+∑y=1∞y2(16)(12)y−1=16∑y=1∞y2(12)y−1\text{E}(Y^2) = 0 + \sum_{y=1}^{\infty} y^2 \left(\frac{1}{6}\right) \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{y-1} = \frac{1}{6} \sum_{y=1}^{\infty} y^2 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{y-1}

4. Evaluate $\text{E}(Y^2)$ using the given identity.

The given identity is 12+22x+32x2+42x3+⋯=1+x(1−x)31^2 + 2^2 x + 3^2 x^2 + 4^2 x^3 + \dots = \frac{1+x}{(1-x)^3}, which can be written as ∑y=1∞y2xy−1=1+x(1−x)3\sum_{y=1}^{\infty} y^2 x^{y-1} = \frac{1+x}{(1-x)^3}.
Substituting x=12x = \frac{1}{2}:
∑y=1∞y2(12)y−1=1+12(1−12)3=32(12)3=3218=12\sum_{y=1}^{\infty} y^2 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{y-1} = \frac{1 + \frac{1}{2}}{\left(1 - \frac{1}{2}\right)^3} = \frac{\frac{3}{2}}{\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3} = \frac{\frac{3}{2}}{\frac{1}{8}} = 12
Thus, E(Y2)=16(12)=2\text{E}(Y^2) = \frac{1}{6}(12) = 2.

5. Compute $\text{Var}(Y)$ using the standard variance formula.

Using the variance formula Var(Y)=E(Y2)−[E(Y)]2\text{Var}(Y) = \text{E}(Y^2) - [\text{E}(Y)]^2 and the given E(Y)=23\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2}{3}:
Var(Y)=2−(23)2=2−49=149\text{Var}(Y) = 2 - \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^2 = 2 - \frac{4}{9} = \frac{14}{9}

答案

149\frac{14}{9}

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