A fair cubical die has faces each labelled with one of the four numbers: 1, 2, 3 and 4. The die is thrown once and the number on the uppermost face is the score . It is given that the mode of is 2 and that . Determine the probability distribution of .
- (i)
In a game at a carnival, a player repeatedly throws the cubical die. If is an odd number, the player loses and the game ends. Otherwise, the player continues to throw the die until a '4' is shown and the game ends. Let be the number of throws that it takes for the player to throw the first '4'. If the player loses the game, then .
Show that .
- (ii)
It is given that for , .
If , find .
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Worked solution
11(i)
1. Deduce the probability distribution of $T$ from the main stem.
From the main stem, the fair cubical die has 6 faces, so probabilities are multiples of .
Given , there is 1 face labelled '1' and 1 face labelled '4'.
This leaves faces for '2' and '3'.
Since the die contains all four numbers and the mode is 2, '2' must appear on more faces than '3'.
Thus, there are 3 faces for '2' and 1 face for '3'.
Therefore:
2. Find the probability of throwing an odd number and the probability of throwing a '2'.
The player throws an odd number if or .
The player continues to throw if , which has probability .
3. Formulate the probability $\text{P}(Y=0)$ as an infinite series.
The event occurs if the player loses the game. This happens if an odd number is thrown before a '4'.
This corresponds to throwing a sequence of consecutive '2's followed by an odd number, for any .
Summing these probabilities for all possible values of :
4. Evaluate the sum to infinity to prove the given result.
This is an infinite geometric series with first term and common ratio .
Using the sum to infinity formula :
11(ii)
1. Deduce the probability $\text{P}(T=2)$ from the initial context.
A cubical die has 6 faces. Given , these outcomes account for 2 faces.
The remaining 4 faces are labelled with 2 and 3, meaning .
Since 2 is the mode, it must appear on more faces than any other number. Hence, 2 is on 3 faces and 3 is on 1 face.
2. Determine the general formula for $\text{P}(Y=y)$ when $y \ge 1$.
For the player to win and end the game on the -th throw, they must roll a '2' for the first throws and a '4' on the -th throw.
Since the throws are independent:
3. Express $\text{E}(Y^2)$ as an infinite series.
The definition of the expected value of is:
Substituting the expression for :
4. Evaluate $\text{E}(Y^2)$ using the given identity.
The given identity is , which can be written as .
Substituting :
Thus, .
5. Compute $\text{Var}(Y)$ using the standard variance formula.
Using the variance formula and the given :
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