对于事件 AA、BB 和 CC,已知 P(A)=P(A∩B)=15P(A) = P(A \cap B) = \tfrac{1}{5} 且 P(B)=2P(A)P(B) = 2P(A)。还已知 P(B∩C)=310.P(B \cap C) = \tfrac{3}{10}.

  1. (a)

    求 P(A∩C)P(A \cap C) 的最大和最小可能值。

  2. (b)

    画一个显示所有 3 个事件的韦恩图,代表 P(A∩C)P(A \cap C) 的值达到最大时的情况。

  3. 现已知 P(A′∩B′∩C′)=112P(A' \cap B' \cap C') = \tfrac{1}{12}。

    1. (c)

      如果 AA 和 CC 是相互独立事件,计算 P(A∩C)P(A \cap C) 的值。

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完整解法

6(a)

1. Establish that $A$ is a subset of $B$ and find $P(A' \cap B)$.

Since P(A∩B)=15P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{5} and P(A)=15P(A) = \frac{1}{5}, we have P(A∩B)=P(A)P(A \cap B) = P(A), which means that event AA is entirely contained within event BB (A⊆BA \subseteq B).
P(B)=2P(A)=2(15)=25P(B) = 2P(A) = 2 \left(\frac{1}{5}\right) = \frac{2}{5}
The probability of the region in BB but not in AA is:
P(A′∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B)=25−15=15P(A' \cap B) = P(B) - P(A \cap B) = \frac{2}{5} - \frac{1}{5} = \frac{1}{5}

2. Find the greatest possible value of $P(A \cap C)$.

The probability of A∩CA \cap C cannot exceed the probability of AA itself.
P(A∩C)≤P(A)=15P(A \cap C) \le P(A) = \frac{1}{5}
Also, since A⊆BA \subseteq B, A∩CA \cap C must be a subset of B∩CB \cap C, so:
P(A∩C)≤P(B∩C)=310P(A \cap C) \le P(B \cap C) = \frac{3}{10}
Since 15≤310\frac{1}{5} \le \frac{3}{10}, the maximum possible overlap between AA and CC is bounded by P(A)P(A).
Greatest possible value = 15\frac{1}{5} (occurring if A⊆CA \subseteq C).

3. Relate $P(A \cap C)$ to $P(B \cap C)$ to set up finding the minimum bound.

Since A⊆BA \subseteq B, the intersection B∩CB \cap C can be exactly partitioned into the part inside AA and the part outside AA:
P(B∩C)=P(A∩C)+P(A′∩B∩C)P(B \cap C) = P(A \cap C) + P(A' \cap B \cap C)
Substituting the given value P(B∩C)=310P(B \cap C) = \frac{3}{10}:
P(A∩C)=310−P(A′∩B∩C)P(A \cap C) = \frac{3}{10} - P(A' \cap B \cap C)
To find the least value of P(A∩C)P(A \cap C), we must maximize P(A′∩B∩C)P(A' \cap B \cap C).

4. Maximize $P(A' \cap B \cap C)$ to calculate the least possible value of $P(A \cap C)$.

The intersection A′∩B∩CA' \cap B \cap C is a subset of A′∩BA' \cap B, so its probability is bounded by P(A′∩B)P(A' \cap B):
P(A′∩B∩C)≤P(A′∩B)=15P(A' \cap B \cap C) \le P(A' \cap B) = \frac{1}{5}
Therefore, the least possible value of P(A∩C)P(A \cap C) is:
P(A∩C)≥310−15=110P(A \cap C) \ge \frac{3}{10} - \frac{1}{5} = \frac{1}{10}

答案

Greatest value: 15\frac{1}{5}, Least value: 110\frac{1}{10}

6(b)

1. Deduce the subset relationship between A, B, and C for the greatest probability.

Since P(A∩B)=P(A)=15P(A \cap B) = P(A) = \frac{1}{5}, event AA is a subset of event BB (A⊆BA \subseteq B).
The greatest possible value for P(A∩C)P(A \cap C) is bounded by P(A)P(A), so the maximum is 15\frac{1}{5}. This occurs when event AA is also a subset of event CC (A⊆CA \subseteq C).
Thus, AA must be a subset of both BB and CC, meaning A⊆(B∩C)A \subseteq (B \cap C).

2. Describe the resulting Venn diagram.

To visually represent this, we draw events BB and CC as intersecting circles.
Since A⊆(B∩C)A \subseteq (B \cap C), circle AA is drawn entirely within the overlapping region of BB and CC.

答案

A Venn diagram with a rectangular boundary for the sample space, two overlapping circles representing events BB and CC, and a smaller circle representing event AA drawn completely inside the intersection region of BB and CC.

6[2](c)

1. Find the probability of the union of all three events using the complement rule.

P(A∪B∪C)=1−P(A′∩B′∩C′)=1−112=1112P(A \cup B \cup C) = 1 - P(A' \cap B' \cap C') = 1 - \frac{1}{12} = \frac{11}{12}

2. Recognise that $A$ is a subset of $B$ to simplify the union.

Since P(A)=P(A∩B)=15P(A) = P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{5}, all outcomes in AA are also in BB, so A⊂BA \subset B.
Therefore, A∪B∪C=B∪CA \cup B \cup C = B \cup C, which means P(B∪C)=1112P(B \cup C) = \frac{11}{12}.

3. Calculate $P(C)$ using the addition rule for $B$ and $C$.

P(B∪C)=P(B)+P(C)−P(B∩C)P(B \cup C) = P(B) + P(C) - P(B \cap C)
1112=25+P(C)−310\frac{11}{12} = \frac{2}{5} + P(C) - \frac{3}{10}
P(C)=1112−110=4960P(C) = \frac{11}{12} - \frac{1}{10} = \frac{49}{60}

4. Calculate $P(A \cap C)$ using the definition of independent events.

Since AA and CC are independent events,
P(A∩C)=P(A)P(C)P(A \cap C) = P(A)P(C)
P(A∩C)=15×4960=49300P(A \cap C) = \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{49}{60} = \frac{49}{300}

答案

49300\frac{49}{300}

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