收集了关于学生每周学习数学的小时数 x 与考试成绩 y 如何变化的数据。7 名学生的数据如下表所示:
学习时间, x1236122436
考试成绩, y41617186929395

  1. ((i))

    绘制该数据的散点图,并确定线性积矩相关系数。评述在此处使用线性模型是否合适。

  2. ((ii))

    以下是上述数据的两个可能模型:

    模型 A: y=a+bx2y = a + \frac{b}{x^2}

    模型 B: y=c+dxy = c + \frac{d}{\sqrt{x}},其中 a, b, c 和 d 是实常数。

    指出哪一个是更好的模型,并说明理由。

  3. ((iii))

    对于你在 (ii) 中选择的模型,求出相应的最小二乘回归线方程。使用你的方程估计当 x = 65 时 y 的值。评述你所得答案的可靠性。

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完整解法

9((i))

1. Sketch the scatter diagram for the given data.

Let the horizontal axis be xx (Study hours) and the vertical axis be yy (Exam score).
Plot the coordinates (1,41)(1, 41), (2,61)(2, 61), (3,71)(3, 71), (6,86)(6, 86), (12,92)(12, 92), (24,93)(24, 93), and (36,95)(36, 95).
The sketch should show the points forming a curve that is concave downwards, steep at first and tapering off as xx increases.

2. Determine the linear product-moment correlation coefficient using a graphing calculator.

Entering the data lists into a graphing calculator and computing the linear regression statistics:
r=0.729355...r = 0.729355...
r≈0.729 (to 3 s.f.)r \approx 0.729 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the appropriateness of a linear model.

A linear model is not appropriate here.
Even though rr indicates some positive correlation, the scatter diagram reveals a clear non-linear (curved) trend where the exam score yy increases at a decreasing rate as study hours xx increase.

答案

r≈0.729r \approx 0.729. A linear model is not appropriate as the scatter diagram exhibits a clear non-linear trend.

9((ii))

1. Calculate the product-moment correlation coefficient ($r$) for both linearised models using a graphing calculator.

For Model A (yy against 1x2\frac{1}{x^2}), using a graphing calculator:
rA≈−0.907r_A \approx -0.907

For Model B (yy against 1x\frac{1}{\sqrt{x}}), using a graphing calculator:
rB≈−0.992r_B \approx -0.992

2. Compare the correlation coefficients to conclude which model is better.

Comparing the values of rr:
∣−0.992∣>∣−0.907∣|-0.992| > |-0.907|

Since the product-moment correlation coefficient for Model B is closer to −1-1 (a perfect negative linear correlation), the linearised data points for Model B lie closer to a straight line.

Hence, Model B is a better model.

答案

Model B is a better model because its product-moment correlation coefficient rr (r≈−0.992r \approx -0.992) is closer to −1-1 than that of Model A (r≈−0.907r \approx -0.907).

9((iii))

1. State the regression line for Model B using a graphing calculator.

From part (ii), Model B (y=c+dxy = c + \frac{d}{\sqrt{x}}) is chosen since its product-moment correlation coefficient (∣r∣≈0.992|r| \approx 0.992) is closer to 11 than that of Model A (∣r∣≈0.907|r| \approx 0.907).

Using a graphing calculator to find the linear regression of yy on 1x\frac{1}{\sqrt{x}}:
c≈108.92c \approx 108.92
d≈−66.664d \approx -66.664

The equation of the least squares regression line is
y=108.92−66.664xy = 108.92 - \frac{66.664}{\sqrt{x}}
y=109−66.7x (to 3 s.f.)y = 109 - \frac{66.7}{\sqrt{x}} \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

2. Substitute $x = 65$ into the regression equation to estimate $y$.

When x=65x = 65, substitute into the unrounded equation:
y=108.924−66.663965y = 108.924 - \frac{66.6639}{\sqrt{65}}
y≈100.65y \approx 100.65
y=101 (to 3 s.f.)y = 101 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.

The estimate is unreliable because x=65x = 65 lies outside the given data range of 1≤x≤361 \le x \le 36. Making an estimate outside the data range is an extrapolation.

(Note: Furthermore, an exam score of 101 may exceed the maximum possible score, adding another real-world reason for its unreliability.)

答案

Equation: y=109−66.7xy = 109 - \frac{66.7}{\sqrt{x}}
Estimate: y≈101y \approx 101
Reliability: The estimate is unreliable as it involves extrapolation.

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