Data is gathered on how exam scores, y, vary with the number of hours, x, students spent studying for Mathematics each week. The data for 7 students is shown below:
Study hours, x1236122436
Exam score, y41617186929395

  1. ((i))

    Sketch a scatter diagram for the data and determine the linear product-moment correlation coefficient. Comment on whether a linear model would be appropriate here.

  2. ((ii))

    The following are two possible models for the data above:

    Model A: y=a+bx2y = a + \frac{b}{x^2}

    Model B: y=c+dxy = c + \frac{d}{\sqrt{x}}, where a, b, c, and d are real constants.

    State, with a reason, which of the above is a better model.

  3. ((iii))

    For your choice of the model in (ii), find the corresponding equation of the least squares regression line. Use your equation to estimate the value of y when x = 65. Comment on the reliability of your answer.

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Worked solution

9((i))

1. Sketch the scatter diagram for the given data.

Let the horizontal axis be xx (Study hours) and the vertical axis be yy (Exam score).
Plot the coordinates (1,41)(1, 41), (2,61)(2, 61), (3,71)(3, 71), (6,86)(6, 86), (12,92)(12, 92), (24,93)(24, 93), and (36,95)(36, 95).
The sketch should show the points forming a curve that is concave downwards, steep at first and tapering off as xx increases.

2. Determine the linear product-moment correlation coefficient using a graphing calculator.

Entering the data lists into a graphing calculator and computing the linear regression statistics:
r=0.729355...r = 0.729355...
r≈0.729 (to 3 s.f.)r \approx 0.729 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the appropriateness of a linear model.

A linear model is not appropriate here.
Even though rr indicates some positive correlation, the scatter diagram reveals a clear non-linear (curved) trend where the exam score yy increases at a decreasing rate as study hours xx increase.

Answer

r≈0.729r \approx 0.729. A linear model is not appropriate as the scatter diagram exhibits a clear non-linear trend.

9((ii))

1. Calculate the product-moment correlation coefficient ($r$) for both linearised models using a graphing calculator.

For Model A (yy against 1x2\frac{1}{x^2}), using a graphing calculator:
rA≈−0.907r_A \approx -0.907

For Model B (yy against 1x\frac{1}{\sqrt{x}}), using a graphing calculator:
rB≈−0.992r_B \approx -0.992

2. Compare the correlation coefficients to conclude which model is better.

Comparing the values of rr:
∣−0.992∣>∣−0.907∣|-0.992| > |-0.907|

Since the product-moment correlation coefficient for Model B is closer to −1-1 (a perfect negative linear correlation), the linearised data points for Model B lie closer to a straight line.

Hence, Model B is a better model.

Answer

Model B is a better model because its product-moment correlation coefficient rr (r≈−0.992r \approx -0.992) is closer to −1-1 than that of Model A (r≈−0.907r \approx -0.907).

9((iii))

1. State the regression line for Model B using a graphing calculator.

From part (ii), Model B (y=c+dxy = c + \frac{d}{\sqrt{x}}) is chosen since its product-moment correlation coefficient (∣r∣≈0.992|r| \approx 0.992) is closer to 11 than that of Model A (∣r∣≈0.907|r| \approx 0.907).

Using a graphing calculator to find the linear regression of yy on 1x\frac{1}{\sqrt{x}}:
c≈108.92c \approx 108.92
d≈−66.664d \approx -66.664

The equation of the least squares regression line is
y=108.92−66.664xy = 108.92 - \frac{66.664}{\sqrt{x}}
y=109−66.7x (to 3 s.f.)y = 109 - \frac{66.7}{\sqrt{x}} \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

2. Substitute $x = 65$ into the regression equation to estimate $y$.

When x=65x = 65, substitute into the unrounded equation:
y=108.924−66.663965y = 108.924 - \frac{66.6639}{\sqrt{65}}
y≈100.65y \approx 100.65
y=101 (to 3 s.f.)y = 101 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.

The estimate is unreliable because x=65x = 65 lies outside the given data range of 1≤x≤361 \le x \le 36. Making an estimate outside the data range is an extrapolation.

(Note: Furthermore, an exam score of 101 may exceed the maximum possible score, adding another real-world reason for its unreliability.)

Answer

Equation: y=109−66.7xy = 109 - \frac{66.7}{\sqrt{x}}
Estimate: y≈101y \approx 101
Reliability: The estimate is unreliable as it involves extrapolation.

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