In this question you should state the parameters of any distributions you use. A snack company produces two types of potato chips, Rays and Luffles. The mass, in grams, of a regular packet of Rays follows the distribution N(100,σ2)\text{N}(100, \sigma^2) and the mass, in grams, of a regular packet of Luffles follows the distribution N(120,16)\text{N}(120, 16). The masses of all regular packets of potato chips are independent of one another.

  1. (a)

    If the probability of the mass of a randomly chosen packet of Rays not exceeding (100−σ2)(100 - \sigma^2) grams is less than 0.2, find the possible range of values of σ\sigma.

  2. (b)

    It is given that σ=3\sigma = 3 for the rest of this question.

    Find the probability that the total mass of 2 randomly chosen regular packets of Rays and 3 randomly chosen packets of Luffles is greater than 0.55 kg.

  3. (c)

    The snack company decides to launch a new product called Mega Jumbo Pack, which consists of (24−n)(24 - n) regular packets of Rays and nn regular packets of Luffles. It is given that the probability of the mass of a Mega Jumbo Pack exceeding 20 times the mass of a regular packet of Luffles by more than 500 g is at least 0.1. Find the minimum value of nn.

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Worked solution

7(a)

1. Set up the probability inequality and standardise to $Z$

Let RR be the mass of a packet of Rays, R∼N(100,σ2)R \sim \text{N}(100, \sigma^2).
Given the condition, we have:
P(R≤100−σ2)<0.2\text{P}(R \le 100 - \sigma^2) < 0.2
Standardising the variable to the standard normal ZZ:
P(Z≤(100−σ2)−100σ)<0.2\text{P}\left(Z \le \frac{(100 - \sigma^2) - 100}{\sigma}\right) < 0.2
P(Z≤−σ)<0.2\text{P}(Z \le -\sigma) < 0.2

2. Solve for $\sigma$ using the inverse normal function

From the standard normal distribution, the zz-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of 0.20.2 is found using a graphing calculator:
−σ<Φ−1(0.2)-\sigma < \Phi^{-1}(0.2)
−σ<−0.84162-\sigma < -0.84162
Multiplying by −1-1 and flipping the inequality sign:
σ>0.84162\sigma > 0.84162
σ>0.842 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma > 0.842 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

σ>0.842\sigma > 0.842

7(b)

1. Define the random variable for the total mass and compute its expected value.

Let T=R1+R2+L1+L2+L3T = R_1 + R_2 + L_1 + L_2 + L_3 be the total mass of the 5 packets.
E(T)=2E(R)+3E(L)\text{E}(T) = 2\text{E}(R) + 3\text{E}(L)
E(T)=2(100)+3(120)=560\text{E}(T) = 2(100) + 3(120) = 560

2. Compute the variance of the total mass, using the fact that the packets are independent.

Since the masses of all regular packets are independent,
Var(T)=2Var(R)+3Var(L)\text{Var}(T) = 2\text{Var}(R) + 3\text{Var}(L)
Var(T)=2(32)+3(16)\text{Var}(T) = 2(3^2) + 3(16)
Var(T)=18+48=66\text{Var}(T) = 18 + 48 = 66

3. State the distribution of the total mass, convert the units to match, and calculate the required probability.

Therefore, the distribution of TT is T∼N(560,66)T \sim \text{N}(560, 66).
Convert 0.55 kg=550 g0.55\text{ kg} = 550\text{ g}.
P(T>550)≈0.89082≈0.891\text{P}(T > 550) \approx 0.89082 \approx 0.891 (to 3 s.f.)

Answer

0.891

7(c)

1. Determine the expected value and variance of the total mass of the Mega Jumbo Pack.

Let MM be the mass of a Mega Jumbo Pack.
M=R1+R2+⋯+R24−n+L1+L2+⋯+LnM = R_1 + R_2 + \dots + R_{24-n} + L_1 + L_2 + \dots + L_n
E(M)=(24−n)E(R)+nE(L)\text{E}(M) = (24 - n)\text{E}(R) + n\text{E}(L)
=(24−n)(100)+n(120)=2400+20n= (24 - n)(100) + n(120) = 2400 + 20n
Var(M)=(24−n)Var(R)+nVar(L)\text{Var}(M) = (24 - n)\text{Var}(R) + n\text{Var}(L)
=(24−n)(9)+n(16)=216+7n= (24 - n)(9) + n(16) = 216 + 7n

2. Find the expected value and variance for 20 times the mass of a regular packet of Luffles.

Let L0L_0 be the mass of a randomly chosen regular packet of Luffles.
E(20L0)=20(120)=2400\text{E}(20L_0) = 20(120) = 2400
Var(20L0)=202(16)=6400\text{Var}(20L_0) = 20^2(16) = 6400

3. Formulate the normal distribution for the difference in mass.

Let Y=M−20L0Y = M - 20L_0.
E(Y)=2400+20n−2400=20n\text{E}(Y) = 2400 + 20n - 2400 = 20n
Var(Y)=216+7n+6400=6616+7n\text{Var}(Y) = 216 + 7n + 6400 = 6616 + 7n
Hence, Y∼N(20n,6616+7n)Y \sim \text{N}(20n, 6616 + 7n).

4. Set up the probability inequality and solve for the minimum integer value of $n$.

We are given that P(Y>500)≥0.1\text{P}(Y > 500) \ge 0.1.
Standardising, we have P(Z>500−20n6616+7n)≥0.1\text{P}\left(Z > \frac{500 - 20n}{\sqrt{6616 + 7n}}\right) \ge 0.1.
Using a graphing calculator to find P(Y>500)\text{P}(Y > 500) for integer values of nn:
When n=19n = 19, P(Y>500)≈0.0720<0.1\text{P}(Y > 500) \approx 0.0720 < 0.1
When n=20n = 20, P(Y>500)≈0.1119≥0.1\text{P}(Y > 500) \approx 0.1119 \ge 0.1

Therefore, the minimum value of nn is 20.

Answer

n=20n = 20

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