Fishing Company A has two types of fishing vessels, the "Standard" vessel and the "Large" vessel. The amount of fish caught by the respective vessels on a typical fishing trip are normally distributed with means and standard deviations as shown in the table.

  1. (a)

    If a Standard vessel returns with more than 400kg of fish, it is called a Bumper catch. Bumper catches occur 8% of the time. Show that σ≈71.2\sigma \approx 71.2.

  2. (b)

    On a particular fishing trip, Company A sends out 3 Standard vessels and 2 Large vessels, with a target to catch at least 2100kg of fish. Find the probability that the fishing vessels are able to meet their target.

  3. (c)

    State an assumption needed in your calculation in part (b).

  4. (d)

    Fishing Company B operates in the same seas as Fishing Company A. However, Company B has the improved versions of the two types of fishing vessels that Company A has: the "Premium-Standard" vessel and the "Premium-Large" vessel. In a fishing trip, the Premium-Standard vessel is capable of catching 3 times as much fish as the Standard vessel and the Premium-Large vessel is capable of catching 2 times as much fish as Large vessel.

    Company B sends out 1 Premium-Standard vessel and 1 Premium-Large vessel, with the same target to catch at least 2100kg of fish. Find the probability that these two fishing vessels are able to meet their target.

  5. (e)

    It is found that, in a sample of nn randomly chosen fishing trips, the probability that the average catch of a Large vessel being less than 552kg is at least 0.7. Find the least possible value of nn.

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Worked solution

10(a)

1. Formulate the probability equation for the Standard vessel's catch.

Let SS be the mass of fish caught by a Standard vessel.
S∼N(300,σ2)S \sim \mathrm{N}(300, \sigma^2)
It is given that P(S>400)=0.08\mathrm{P}(S > 400) = 0.08.

2. Standardise the variable and use the inverse normal function.

P(Z>400−300σ)=0.08\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{400 - 300}{\sigma}\right) = 0.08
P(Z<100σ)=1−0.08=0.92\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{100}{\sigma}\right) = 1 - 0.08 = 0.92
Using the graphing calculator to find the inverse normal of 0.920.92:
100σ≈1.40507\frac{100}{\sigma} \approx 1.40507

3. Solve for the standard deviation $\sigma$.

σ≈1001.40507\sigma \approx \frac{100}{1.40507}
σ≈71.171\sigma \approx 71.171
σ≈71.2 (shown)\sigma \approx 71.2 \text{ (shown)}

Answer

σ≈71.2\sigma \approx 71.2 (shown)

10(b)

1. Define the random variable for the total catch and calculate its mean and variance.

Let T=S1+S2+S3+L1+L2T = S_1 + S_2 + S_3 + L_1 + L_2 be the total amount of fish caught by the 5 vessels.
Using σ=71.171\sigma = 71.171 from part (a):
E(T)=3E(S)+2E(L)\text{E}(T) = 3\text{E}(S) + 2\text{E}(L)
E(T)=3(300)+2(540)=1980\text{E}(T) = 3(300) + 2(540) = 1980

Var(T)=3Var(S)+2Var(L)\text{Var}(T) = 3\text{Var}(S) + 2\text{Var}(L)
Var(T)=3(71.171)2+2(110)2\text{Var}(T) = 3(71.171)^2 + 2(110)^2
Var(T)=15195.9+24200=39395.9\text{Var}(T) = 15195.9 + 24200 = 39395.9

Thus, T∼N(1980,39395.9)T \sim \text{N}(1980, 39395.9).

2. Calculate the probability that the total catch meets the target.

We need to find the probability that the total catch is at least 2100 kg, which is P(T≥2100)\text{P}(T \ge 2100).

Using a graphing calculator:
P(T≥2100)=0.27272…\text{P}(T \ge 2100) = 0.27272\dots
P(T≥2100)≈0.273 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(T \ge 2100) \approx 0.273 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.2730.273

10(c)

1. State the statistical assumption required to sum the variances of the individual random variables.

In part (b), the variance of the total catch is calculated by summing the variances of the individual catches. This requires the assumption that the amount of fish caught by each vessel is independent of the amount caught by the other vessels.

Answer

The amount of fish caught by each vessel is independent of the amount caught by the other vessels.

10(d)

1. Define the random variable for the total catch of Company B and calculate its expectation.

Let TBT_B be the total catch for Company B.
Since the vessels catch scalar multiples of the original amounts, TB=3S+2LT_B = 3S + 2L.
E(TB)=3E(S)+2E(L)\text{E}(T_B) = 3\text{E}(S) + 2\text{E}(L)
E(TB)=3(300)+2(540)=1980\text{E}(T_B) = 3(300) + 2(540) = 1980

2. Calculate the variance of the total catch, taking care to square the scaling constants.

Using the more precise value σ≈71.171\sigma \approx 71.171 from part (a):
Var(TB)=32Var(S)+22Var(L)\text{Var}(T_B) = 3^2\text{Var}(S) + 2^2\text{Var}(L)
Var(TB)=9(71.171)2+4(1102)\text{Var}(T_B) = 9(71.171)^2 + 4(110^2)
Var(TB)≈45587.5+48400=93987.5\text{Var}(T_B) \approx 45587.5 + 48400 = 93987.5

3. Find the probability that the target of at least 2100kg is met.

TB∼N(1980,93987.5)T_B \sim \text{N}(1980, 93987.5)
P(TB≥2100)≈0.34773≈0.348 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(T_B \ge 2100) \approx 0.34773 \approx 0.348 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.348

10(e)

1. State the distribution of the sample mean.

Let LL be the amount of fish caught by a Large vessel. From the given information, L∼N(540,1102)L \sim \text{N}(540, 110^2).
For a sample of nn trips, the sample mean Lˉ\bar{L} follows a normal distribution:
Lˉ∼N(540,1102n)\bar{L} \sim \text{N}\left(540, \frac{110^2}{n}\right)

2. Set up an inequality by standardising the normal variable.

We are given that P(Lˉ<552)≥0.7\text{P}(\bar{L} < 552) \ge 0.7.
Standardising the variable gives:
P(Z<552−540110/n)≥0.7\text{P}\left(Z < \frac{552 - 540}{110/\sqrt{n}}\right) \ge 0.7
P(Z<12n110)≥0.7\text{P}\left(Z < \frac{12\sqrt{n}}{110}\right) \ge 0.7

3. Solve the inequality to find the least possible integer value for $n$.

Using the inverse normal distribution, for P(Z<z)=0.7\text{P}(Z < z) = 0.7, the critical zz-value is z≈0.52440z \approx 0.52440.
12n110≥0.52440\frac{12\sqrt{n}}{110} \ge 0.52440
n≥110×0.5244012\sqrt{n} \ge \frac{110 \times 0.52440}{12}
n≥4.8070\sqrt{n} \ge 4.8070
n≥23.107n \ge 23.107
Since the sample size nn must be an integer, the least possible value of nn is 2424.

Answer

2424

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