Five discs numbered 1, 3, 4, 6 and 7 are placed in a bag. Two disc are taken out of the bag at random without replacement.

  1. ((a))

    Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities of the possible outcome.

  2. ((b))

    Find the probability that one disc is odd and the other is even.

    Answer ...

  3. ((c))

    Peter thinks that there is more than 10% chance that both numbers drawn is less than 4.

    Is he correct or wrong? Explain your answer.

    Answer ...

    ...

  4. ((d))

    Calculate the probability where the sum of both numbers drawn is a prime number.

    Answer ...

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Worked solution

3((a))

1. Find the probabilities for the first draw

There are 33 odd discs: 1,3,71,3,7, and 22 even discs: 4,64,6.

Total number of discs =5=5.

So
P(Odd on first draw)=35,P(\text{Odd on first draw})=\frac35,
P(Even on first draw)=25.P(\text{Even on first draw})=\frac25.

2. Find the conditional probabilities for the second draw without replacement

If the first disc is odd, there are 44 discs left: 22 odd and 22 even.

So
P(Odd second∣Odd first)=24=12,P(\text{Odd second}\mid \text{Odd first})=\frac24=\frac12,
P(Even second∣Odd first)=24=12.P(\text{Even second}\mid \text{Odd first})=\frac24=\frac12.

If the first disc is even, there are 44 discs left: 33 odd and 11 even.

So
P(Odd second∣Even first)=34,P(\text{Odd second}\mid \text{Even first})=\frac34,
P(Even second∣Even first)=14.P(\text{Even second}\mid \text{Even first})=\frac14.

Answer

First draw: P(Odd)=35P(\text{Odd})=\dfrac35, P(Even)=25P(\text{Even})=\dfrac25.

If first draw is Odd: P(Odd)=24=12P(\text{Odd})=\dfrac24=\dfrac12, P(Even)=24=12P(\text{Even})=\dfrac24=\dfrac12.

If first draw is Even: P(Odd)=34P(\text{Odd})=\dfrac34, P(Even)=14P(\text{Even})=\dfrac14.

3((b))

1. Add the probabilities of the two favourable outcomes

One disc is odd and the other is even means either:

Odd then Even\text{Odd then Even} or Even then Odd\text{Even then Odd}.

P(one odd and one even)=35×12+25×34P(\text{one odd and one even})=\frac35\times\frac12+\frac25\times\frac34

=310+310=610=35=\frac3{10}+\frac3{10}=\frac6{10}=\frac35

Answer

35\dfrac35

3((c))

1. Find and compare the probability that both numbers drawn are less than 4

The numbers less than 44 are 11 and 33.

P(both less than 4)=25×14=110=10%.P(\text{both less than }4)=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{1}{4}=\frac{1}{10}=10\%.

So it is exactly 10%10\%, not more than 10%10\%. Peter is wrong.

Answer

Peter is correct, since 110=10%\dfrac{1}{10}=10\%, so the chance is not more than 10%10\%.

[Note: If interpreting “more than 10%” strictly, Peter is wrong because it is exactly 10%10\%, not more than 10%10\%.]

3((d))

1. List all possible pairs and identify those with a prime sum

There are (52)=10\binom{5}{2}=10 possible pairs.

The pairs with a prime sum are
(1,4), (1,6), (3,4), (4,7), (6,7), (3,6).(1,4),\ (1,6),\ (3,4),\ (4,7),\ (6,7),\ (3,6).
Their sums are respectively 5,7,7,11,13,95,7,7,11,13,9.

Since 99 is not prime, the favourable pairs are
(1,4), (1,6), (3,4), (4,7), (6,7).(1,4),\ (1,6),\ (3,4),\ (4,7),\ (6,7).
So there are 66 favourable ordered outcomes, or equivalently 55 favourable unordered pairs.

2. Calculate the probability of a prime sum

Using ordered outcomes, there are 5×4=205\times4=20 possible outcomes.

The 55 favourable unordered pairs give 1010 favourable ordered outcomes.

P(prime sum)=1020=12P(\text{prime sum})=\frac{10}{20}=\frac12

Answer

35\dfrac{3}{5}

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