Students seeking admission to Kingdom University and Island University are required to apply using their national examination scores. The scores of the prospective applicants for each university can be modelled by independent normal distributions with means and standard deviations as shown in the table.
Mean ScoreStandard Deviation
Kingdom University500100
Island University48060
A random sample of 5 prospective applicants of Kingdom University and a random sample of 5 prospective applicants of Island University are chosen. Find the probability that

  1. (i)

    Kingdom University only admits the top 30% of its prospective applicants. Find the minimum score that a student must achieve in order to gain admission into this university.

  2. (ii)

    the difference in mean scores between the prospective students of the two universities exceeds 50,

  3. (iii)

    the minimum score of these 10 prospective students is at least 500,

  4. (iv)

    the total score of the 5 prospective students of Island University is more than 5 times the score of a randomly chosen prospective student of Kingdom University.

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Worked solution

13(i)

1. Set up the probability equation based on the top 30% admission condition.

Let XX be the score of a randomly chosen prospective applicant for Kingdom University.
Given X∼N(500,1002)X \sim \text{N}(500, 100^2).

The university admits the top 30%30\% of applicants. Let xx be the minimum score required.
P(X≥x)=0.3\text{P}(X \ge x) = 0.3
P(X<x)=1−0.3=0.7\text{P}(X < x) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7

2. Solve for the minimum score using the inverse normal function.

Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator:
x=552.44x = 552.44

The minimum score a student must achieve is 552552 (to 3 s.f.).

Answer

552552

13(ii)

1. Find the distribution of the difference between the two sample means.

Let Kˉ\bar{K} and Iˉ\bar{I} be the sample mean scores of the 5 applicants from Kingdom University and Island University respectively.

Since the populations are normally distributed, the sample means follow:
Kˉ∼N(500,10025)⇒Kˉ∼N(500,2000)\bar{K} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(500, \frac{100^2}{5}\right) \Rightarrow \bar{K} \sim \mathrm{N}(500, 2000)
Iˉ∼N(480,6025)⇒Iˉ∼N(480,720)\bar{I} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(480, \frac{60^2}{5}\right) \Rightarrow \bar{I} \sim \mathrm{N}(480, 720)

Let the difference in sample means be D=Kˉ−IˉD = \bar{K} - \bar{I}.
E(D)=E(Kˉ)−E(Iˉ)=500−480=20\mathrm{E}(D) = \mathrm{E}(\bar{K}) - \mathrm{E}(\bar{I}) = 500 - 480 = 20
Var(D)=Var(Kˉ)+Var(Iˉ)=2000+720=2720\mathrm{Var}(D) = \mathrm{Var}(\bar{K}) + \mathrm{Var}(\bar{I}) = 2000 + 720 = 2720
Thus, D∼N(20,2720)D \sim \mathrm{N}(20, 2720).

2. Formulate the probability for the absolute difference exceeding 50.

The phrase "difference in mean scores" implies the absolute difference between the two variables. Therefore, we need to find P(∣D∣>50)\mathrm{P}(|D| > 50).

P(∣D∣>50)=P(D<−50)+P(D>50)\mathrm{P}(|D| > 50) = \mathrm{P}(D < -50) + \mathrm{P}(D > 50)

3. Calculate the required probability using a graphing calculator.

Using the normal cumulative distribution function on a graphing calculator:
P(D<−50)≈0.089771\mathrm{P}(D < -50) \approx 0.089771
P(D>50)≈0.282565\mathrm{P}(D > 50) \approx 0.282565

P(∣D∣>50)≈0.089771+0.282565=0.372336≈0.372 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(|D| > 50) \approx 0.089771 + 0.282565 = 0.372336 \approx 0.372 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.372

13(iii)

1. Express the probability of the minimum score being at least 500 in terms of individual student scores.

For the minimum score of the 10 students to be at least 500, every single student in both samples must score at least 500. Since the students' scores are independent:
P(min≥500)=[P(X≥500)]5×[P(Y≥500)]5P(\text{min} \ge 500) = [P(X \ge 500)]^5 \times [P(Y \ge 500)]^5

2. Find the individual probabilities for students from each university.

Let X∼N(500,1002)X \sim \mathrm{N}(500, 100^2) be the score for Kingdom University and Y∼N(480,602)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(480, 60^2) be the score for Island University.
P(X≥500)=0.5P(X \ge 500) = 0.5
P(Y≥500)≈0.36944P(Y \ge 500) \approx 0.36944

3. Compute the final probability.

Required probability=(0.5)5×(0.36944)5\text{Required probability} = (0.5)^5 \times (0.36944)^5
≈0.00021908\approx 0.00021908
≈0.000219 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.000219 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.0002190.000219

13(iv)

1. Define the random variables and the combined variable to investigate.

Let XX be the score of a randomly chosen prospective student from Kingdom University, and YY be the score of a randomly chosen prospective student from Island University.
We are given X∼N(500,1002)X \sim \mathrm{N}(500, 100^2) and Y∼N(480,602)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(480, 60^2).
Let W=(Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4+Y5)−5XW = (Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3 + Y_4 + Y_5) - 5X be the difference between the total score of the 5 Island University students and 5 times the score of a Kingdom University student.
We want to find P(W>0)\mathrm{P}(W > 0).

2. Calculate the expectation and variance of the combined variable.

E(W)=5E(Y)−5E(X)\mathrm{E}(W) = 5\mathrm{E}(Y) - 5\mathrm{E}(X)
E(W)=5(480)−5(500)=−100\mathrm{E}(W) = 5(480) - 5(500) = -100

Var(W)=5Var(Y)+52Var(X)\mathrm{Var}(W) = 5\mathrm{Var}(Y) + 5^2\mathrm{Var}(X)
Var(W)=5(602)+25(1002)=18000+250000=268000\mathrm{Var}(W) = 5(60^2) + 25(100^2) = 18000 + 250000 = 268000
So, W∼N(−100,268000)W \sim \mathrm{N}(-100, 268000).

3. Calculate the required probability using the standard normal distribution.

P(W>0)=P(Z>0−(−100)268000)\mathrm{P}(W > 0) = \mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{0 - (-100)}{\sqrt{268000}}\right)
P(W>0)=P(Z>0.193167)≈0.423415\mathrm{P}(W > 0) = \mathrm{P}(Z > 0.193167) \approx 0.423415
Correcting to 3 significant figures, the probability is 0.4230.423.

Answer

0.4230.423

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