In this question you should state clearly all the distributions that you use, together with the values of the appropriate parameters. A petrol station sells two different grades of petrol. The volume, in litres, of the two different grades of petrol sold in an hour are normally distributed with means and standard deviations as shown in the table below.
MeanStandard deviation
Grade XXμ\muσ\sigma
Grade YY2005

  1. (i)

    By considering the properties of the normal curve, explain why it may not be appropriate for the volume of a randomly chosen grade of petrol sold in an hour to be taken from the volume of a combined grades of petrol sold in an hour at the petrol station to be modelled by a normal distribution.

  2. (ii)

    Given that there is a 2.3% chance that the volume of Grade XX petrol sold in an hour does not exceed 170 litres and a 16% chance that the volume of Grade XX petrol sold in an hour is more than 180 litres, find the values of μ\mu and σ\sigma.

  3. (iii)

    Find the probability that the volume of Grade XX petrol sold in three hours lies within 72 litres of three times the volume of Grade YY petrol sold in 1 hour, giving your answer to 5 significant figures.

  4. (iv)

    State an assumption for the calculations in part (iii) to be valid.

  5. (v)

    The petrol station carries out a promotion in the month of June resulting in an increase in the volume of Grade YY petrol sold in an hour by 10%.

    It is given that there is a probability of at most 0.2 that the mean hourly volume of Grade YY petrol sold in a particular day in June is more than the mean hourly volume of Grade YY petrol sold in a particular day in May by at least kk litres. Find the minimum value of kk, giving your answer as an integer. Assume that the daily operational hours of the petrol station is 24 hours.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. Contrast the unimodal property of a normal distribution with the likely bimodal nature of the combined distribution.

A normal distribution curve is unimodal (has a single peak) and symmetrical.
Since the two different grades of petrol are likely to have different means, the combined distribution of a randomly chosen grade of petrol is likely to have two peaks (bimodal). Therefore, it is not appropriate to model it with a normal distribution.

Answer

A normal distribution is unimodal and symmetrical. However, the combined distribution of the two grades of petrol is likely to be bimodal because the two grades have different means.

10(ii)

1. Formulate the given probabilities in terms of the random variable $X$ and standardise them to the standard normal distribution $Z$.

Let X∼N(μ,σ2)X \sim \mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2) be the volume of Grade XX petrol sold in an hour.
Given P(X⩽170)=0.023\mathrm{P}(X \leqslant 170) = 0.023 and P(X>180)=0.16\mathrm{P}(X > 180) = 0.16.

Standardising gives:
P(Z⩽170−μσ)=0.023\mathrm{P}\left(Z \leqslant \frac{170 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.023
P(Z>180−μσ)=0.16  ⟹  P(Z⩽180−μσ)=1−0.16=0.84\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{180 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 0.16 \implies \mathrm{P}\left(Z \leqslant \frac{180 - \mu}{\sigma}\right) = 1 - 0.16 = 0.84

2. Use the inverse normal distribution to form simultaneous equations in terms of $\mu$ and $\sigma$.

Using the inverse normal function on a graphing calculator:
170−μσ≈−1.99539— (1)\frac{170 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx -1.99539 \quad \text{--- (1)}
180−μσ≈0.99446— (2)\frac{180 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx 0.99446 \quad \text{--- (2)}

3. Solve the simultaneous equations to find the values of $\mu$ and $\sigma$.

Rearranging the equations into linear forms:
170−μ=−1.99539σ170 - \mu = -1.99539\sigma
180−μ=0.99446σ180 - \mu = 0.99446\sigma

Subtracting the first equation from the second:
10=(0.99446−(−1.99539))σ10 = (0.99446 - (-1.99539))\sigma
10=2.98985σ10 = 2.98985\sigma
σ=3.3446≈3.34 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma = 3.3446 \approx 3.34 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Substituting σ\sigma back into the second equation:
180−μ=0.99446(3.3446)180 - \mu = 0.99446(3.3446)
μ=180−3.3261\mu = 180 - 3.3261
μ=176.67≈177 (to 3 s.f.)\mu = 176.67 \approx 177 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

μ=177\mu = 177 and σ=3.34\sigma = 3.34 (to 3 s.f.)

10(iii)

1. Determine the mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma$ of Grade $X$ petrol (required from part ii).

Let X∼N(μ,σ2)X \sim \mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2) be the hourly volume of Grade XX.
From part (ii):
P(X≤170)=0.023  ⟹  170−μσ≈−1.99539\mathrm{P}(X \le 170) = 0.023 \implies \dfrac{170 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx -1.99539
P(X>180)=0.16  ⟹  P(X≤180)=0.84  ⟹  180−μσ≈0.99446\mathrm{P}(X > 180) = 0.16 \implies \mathrm{P}(X \le 180) = 0.84 \implies \dfrac{180 - \mu}{\sigma} \approx 0.99446
Subtracting the first equation from the second:
10σ=0.99446−(−1.99539)=2.98985  ⟹  σ≈3.3446\dfrac{10}{\sigma} = 0.99446 - (-1.99539) = 2.98985 \implies \sigma \approx 3.3446
Substituting σ\sigma back:
μ≈180−0.99446(3.3446)≈176.67\mu \approx 180 - 0.99446(3.3446) \approx 176.67
(Keep exact values μ=176.67389…\mu = 176.67389\dots and σ=3.344648…\sigma = 3.344648\dots in the calculator for subsequent parts.)

2. Define the linear combination $D$ for the difference and calculate its expectation and variance.

Let X1,X2,X3X_1, X_2, X_3 be the independent volumes of Grade XX sold in three hours, and YY be the volume of Grade YY sold in 1 hour where Y∼N(200,52)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(200, 5^2).
We require the probability involving D=(X1+X2+X3)−3YD = (X_1 + X_2 + X_3) - 3Y.
E(D)=3E(X)−3E(Y)=3(176.67389)−3(200)=−69.978\mathrm{E}(D) = 3\mathrm{E}(X) - 3\mathrm{E}(Y) = 3(176.67389) - 3(200) = -69.978
Var(D)=3Var(X)+32Var(Y)=3(3.3446482)+9(52)\mathrm{Var}(D) = 3\mathrm{Var}(X) + 3^2\mathrm{Var}(Y) = 3(3.344648^2) + 9(5^2)
Var(D)=33.560+225=258.560\mathrm{Var}(D) = 33.560 + 225 = 258.560
Thus, D∼N(−69.978,258.560)D \sim \mathrm{N}(-69.978, 258.560).

3. Calculate the probability that the difference lies within 72 litres.

We require P(∣D∣<72)=P(−72<D<72)\mathrm{P}(|D| < 72) = \mathrm{P}(-72 < D < 72).
Using the graphing calculator's normal cumulative distribution function with μ=−69.978\mu = -69.978 and σ=258.560≈16.080\sigma = \sqrt{258.560} \approx 16.080:
P(−72<D<72)≈0.550024\mathrm{P}(-72 < D < 72) \approx 0.550024
Rounding to 5 significant figures, the probability is 0.550020.55002.

Answer

0.55002

10(iv)

1. State the necessary assumption of independence for the variance of the linear combination of random variables to be valid.

For the variance of the sum (X1+X2+X3−3Y)(X_1 + X_2 + X_3 - 3Y) to be calculated as Var⁡(X1)+Var⁡(X2)+Var⁡(X3)+32Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(X_1) + \operatorname{Var}(X_2) + \operatorname{Var}(X_3) + 3^2\operatorname{Var}(Y), the individual random variables must be independent. Thus, the volume of Grade XX petrol sold in each hour must be independent of one another, and independent of Grade YY.

Answer

The volume of Grade XX petrol sold in one hour is independent of the volume of Grade XX petrol sold in any other hour (or the volume of Grade XX petrol sold is independent of the volume of Grade YY petrol sold).

10(v)

1. Find the distribution of the hourly volume of Grade $Y$ petrol sold in June.

Let YY be the hourly volume of Grade YY petrol sold in May.
Y∼N(200,52)Y \sim \mathrm{N}(200, 5^2)
With a 10%10\% increase, the hourly volume in June is modelled by YJ=1.1YY_J = 1.1Y.
E(YJ)=1.1(200)=220\mathrm{E}(Y_J) = 1.1(200) = 220
Var(YJ)=1.12(52)=1.21(25)=30.25\mathrm{Var}(Y_J) = 1.1^2(5^2) = 1.21(25) = 30.25
YJ∼N(220,30.25)Y_J \sim \mathrm{N}(220, 30.25)

2. Find the distribution of the mean hourly volume for a 24-hour day in May and in June.

Let Yˉ\bar{Y} and YˉJ\bar{Y}_J be the mean hourly volume in a 24-hour day in May and June, respectively.
Since the daily operational hours are 24, the sample size is n=24n=24.
Yˉ∼N(200,2524)\bar{Y} \sim \mathrm{N}\left(200, \frac{25}{24}\right)
YˉJ∼N(220,30.2524)\bar{Y}_J \sim \mathrm{N}\left(220, \frac{30.25}{24}\right)

3. Find the distribution of the difference in mean hourly volumes.

Let W=YˉJ−YˉW = \bar{Y}_J - \bar{Y}. Since the days are independent,
E(W)=E(YˉJ)−E(Yˉ)=220−200=20\mathrm{E}(W) = \mathrm{E}(\bar{Y}_J) - \mathrm{E}(\bar{Y}) = 220 - 200 = 20
Var(W)=Var(YˉJ)+Var(Yˉ)=30.2524+2524=55.2524\mathrm{Var}(W) = \mathrm{Var}(\bar{Y}_J) + \mathrm{Var}(\bar{Y}) = \frac{30.25}{24} + \frac{25}{24} = \frac{55.25}{24}
W∼N(20,55.2524)W \sim \mathrm{N}\left(20, \frac{55.25}{24}\right)

4. Formulate the probability inequality for $k$ and standardise.

We are given P(YˉJ−Yˉ≥k)≤0.2\mathrm{P}(\bar{Y}_J - \bar{Y} \ge k) \le 0.2, which translates to P(W≥k)≤0.2\mathrm{P}(W \ge k) \le 0.2.
Standardising the inequality:
P(Z≥k−2055.25/24)≤0.2\mathrm{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{k - 20}{\sqrt{55.25/24}}\right) \le 0.2
Using a graphing calculator or standard normal table, the critical value zz for which P(Z≥z)=0.2\mathrm{P}(Z \ge z) = 0.2 is z≈0.84162z \approx 0.84162.
Therefore, k−2055.25/24≥0.84162\frac{k - 20}{\sqrt{55.25/24}} \ge 0.84162.

5. Solve for the minimum integer value of $k$.

k−20≥0.84162×55.2524k - 20 \ge 0.84162 \times \sqrt{\frac{55.25}{24}}
k≥20+0.84162×1.51726k \ge 20 + 0.84162 \times 1.51726
k≥21.277k \ge 21.277
Since kk must be an integer, the minimum value of kk is 2222.

Answer

2222

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