The finishing times in a 10km race with a large number of runners follow a normal distribution. After 40 minutes, 10% of the runners have completed the race. After one hour, 35% of the runners have yet to complete the race. The first 20% of runners who finish the race receive a medal.

  1. (i)

    Show that, correct to 1 decimal place, the runners have running times with mean 55.4 minutes and standard deviation 12.0 minutes.

  2. (ii)

    Find the maximum time a runner can take to finish the race in order to receive a medal.

  3. (iii)

    A random sample of 12 runners is selected.

    Find the probability that more than four runners receive a medal.

  4. (iv)

    Given that none of the runners receives a medal, find the probability that the slowest runner completes the race in under one hour.

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Worked solution

9(i)

1. Set up the probability statements and obtain standard normal equations using the inverse normal function.

Let TT be the running time in minutes. T∼N(μ,σ2)T \sim \mathrm{N}(\mu, \sigma^2).

Given 10% complete the race under 40 minutes:
P(T⩽40)=0.10  ⟹  40−μσ≈−1.28155\mathrm{P}(T \leqslant 40) = 0.10 \implies \frac{40-\mu}{\sigma} \approx -1.28155

Given 35% take more than 60 minutes:
P(T>60)=0.35  ⟹  P(T⩽60)=0.65  ⟹  60−μσ≈0.38532\mathrm{P}(T > 60) = 0.35 \implies \mathrm{P}(T \leqslant 60) = 0.65 \implies \frac{60-\mu}{\sigma} \approx 0.38532

2. Form simultaneous linear equations and solve for $\sigma$.

40−μ=−1.28155σ— (1)40 - \mu = -1.28155\sigma \quad \text{--- (1)}
60−μ=0.38532σ— (2)60 - \mu = 0.38532\sigma \quad \text{--- (2)}

Subtracting equation (1) from (2):
20=(0.38532−(−1.28155))σ20 = (0.38532 - (-1.28155))\sigma
20=1.66687σ20 = 1.66687\sigma
σ=201.66687≈11.9985\sigma = \frac{20}{1.66687} \approx 11.9985

3. Solve for $\mu$ and state the answers correct to 1 decimal place.

Substitute σ\sigma into equation (2):
60−μ=0.38532(11.9985)60 - \mu = 0.38532(11.9985)
60−μ≈4.623260 - \mu \approx 4.6232
μ=60−4.6232≈55.3768\mu = 60 - 4.6232 \approx 55.3768

Rounding to 1 decimal place:
μ≈55.4 minutes\mu \approx 55.4 \text{ minutes}
σ≈12.0 minutes\sigma \approx 12.0 \text{ minutes} (Shown)

Answer

μ≈55.4\mu \approx 55.4 minutes, σ≈12.0\sigma \approx 12.0 minutes (Shown)

9(ii)

1. Set up the probability equation for the top 20% of runners who finish first.

Let TT be the time taken by a runner to finish the race.
The first 20% of runners are those with the shortest finishing times. We need to find the maximum time tt such that:
P(T<t)=0.2\mathrm{P}(T < t) = 0.2

2. Solve for the maximum time $t$ using the inverse normal distribution.

Using the unrounded parameters from part (i), μ≈55.377\mu \approx 55.377 and σ≈11.999\sigma \approx 11.999, we use the inverse normal function on the graphing calculator:
t≈45.279t \approx 45.279
t≈45.3 minutes (to 3 s.f.)t \approx 45.3 \text{ minutes (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

45.345.3 minutes

9(iii)

1. Define the distribution for the number of runners receiving a medal

Let XX be the number of runners in the sample of 12 who receive a medal.
Since the first 20% of runners receive a medal, the probability of any randomly selected runner receiving a medal is p=0.2p = 0.2.
X∼B(12,0.2)X \sim \mathrm{B}(12, 0.2)

2. Calculate the probability that more than four runners receive a medal

P(X>4)=1−P(X≤4)\mathrm{P}(X > 4) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(X \le 4)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(X>4)=1−0.92744\mathrm{P}(X > 4) = 1 - 0.92744
P(X>4)=0.072556≈0.0726 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(X > 4) = 0.072556 \approx 0.0726 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.07260.0726

9(iv)

1. Translate the scenario into conditional probability events for the sample of 12 runners.

Let AA be the event that none of the 12 runners receives a medal.
Let BB be the event that the slowest of the 12 runners completes the race in under 60 minutes.

For the slowest runner to take under 60 minutes, all 12 runners must take under 60 minutes.
We require P(B∣A)=P(A∩B)P(A)\mathrm{P}(B \mid A) = \frac{\mathrm{P}(A \cap B)}{\mathrm{P}(A)}.

2. Determine the required probabilities for a single runner using the exact percentages given in the problem stem.

Let TT be the completion time of a single runner, and tmt_m be the maximum time to receive a medal.
From the given information:
P(T<tm)=0.20\mathrm{P}(T < t_m) = 0.20 (the first 20% receive medals)
P(T>60)=0.35  ⟹  P(T≤60)=0.65\mathrm{P}(T > 60) = 0.35 \implies \mathrm{P}(T \le 60) = 0.65

For a single runner to not receive a medal, T>tmT > t_m:
P(T>tm)=1−0.20=0.80\mathrm{P}(T > t_m) = 1 - 0.20 = 0.80

For a single runner to not receive a medal AND complete in under 60 minutes, tm≤T<60t_m \le T < 60:
P(tm≤T<60)=P(T<60)−P(T≤tm)=0.65−0.20=0.45\mathrm{P}(t_m \le T < 60) = \mathrm{P}(T < 60) - \mathrm{P}(T \le t_m) = 0.65 - 0.20 = 0.45

3. Calculate the joint and marginal probabilities for the sample of 12 independent runners.

Since the 12 runners are randomly selected and independent:
P(A)=[P(T>tm)]12=0.8012\mathrm{P}(A) = [\mathrm{P}(T > t_m)]^{12} = 0.80^{12}
P(A∩B)=[P(tm≤T<60)]12=0.4512\mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = [\mathrm{P}(t_m \le T < 60)]^{12} = 0.45^{12}

4. Evaluate the final conditional probability.

P(B∣A)=0.45120.8012=(0.450.80)12=(0.5625)12≈0.000993 (to 3 s.f.)\begin{aligned} \mathrm{P}(B \mid A) &= \frac{0.45^{12}}{0.80^{12}} \\ &= \left(\frac{0.45}{0.80}\right)^{12} \\ &= (0.5625)^{12} \\ &\approx 0.000993 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)} \end{aligned}

(Note: Using the rounded normal distribution parameters μ=55.4\mu = 55.4 and σ=12.0\sigma = 12.0 from part (i) yields a slightly inaccurate 0.0009740.000974, which typically loses an accuracy mark. Relying on exact given percentages is the intended method.)

Answer

0.0009930.000993

AI analysis — may contain mistakes.

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