In this question, you should state the parameters of any distribution that you use. A local fish market is famous for two types of fish it sells. The masses in kg of each type of fish may be assumed to follow independent normal distributions, with means and standard deviations as shown in the following table.

  1. (a)

    On a particular day, Mrs Tan brought $50 to the fish market to purchase some fish. The price of Snapper was $18.50 per kg.

    1. (i)

      Find the probability that 2 Garoupas and 3 Snappers weigh more than 2.25 kg.

    2. (ii)

      Suppose Mrs Tan decided to purchase only Snapper. Determine the maximum number kk of Snappers she could buy so that she was at least 95% certain that she had enough money to pay for the purchase.

  2. (b)

    On another day, Mrs Tan decided to purchase only Garoupas from the market. She brought sufficient money to buy 6 Garoupas. Find the probability that among the 6 Garoupas purchased, more than 3 of them were of masses greater than 0.48 kg each.

  3. (c)

    Suppose Mrs Tan bought 6 Garoupas, find the probability that the lightest Garoupa has mass greater then 0.48 kg.

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Worked solution

14(a)(i)

1. Define the random variable for the total mass and find its expected value.

Let GG and SS be the masses of a Garoupa and a Snapper respectively.
G∼N(0.50,0.0252)G \sim \mathrm{N}(0.50, 0.025^2)
S∼N(0.45,0.0202)S \sim \mathrm{N}(0.45, 0.020^2)

Let W=G1+G2+S1+S2+S3W = G_1 + G_2 + S_1 + S_2 + S_3 be the total mass of 2 Garoupas and 3 Snappers.
E(W)=2E(G)+3E(S)\mathrm{E}(W) = 2\mathrm{E}(G) + 3\mathrm{E}(S)
E(W)=2(0.50)+3(0.45)=2.35 kg\mathrm{E}(W) = 2(0.50) + 3(0.45) = 2.35 \text{ kg}

2. Calculate the variance of the total mass.

Since the masses of the randomly chosen fishes are independent,
Var(W)=2Var(G)+3Var(S)\mathrm{Var}(W) = 2\mathrm{Var}(G) + 3\mathrm{Var}(S)
Var(W)=2(0.0252)+3(0.0202)\mathrm{Var}(W) = 2(0.025^2) + 3(0.020^2)
Var(W)=0.00125+0.0012=0.00245\mathrm{Var}(W) = 0.00125 + 0.0012 = 0.00245

3. State the distribution of the total mass and compute the required probability.

As WW is a linear combination of independent normal variables, it is also normally distributed.
W∼N(2.35,0.00245)W \sim \mathrm{N}(2.35, 0.00245)

We require P(W>2.25)\mathrm{P}(W > 2.25). Using a graphing calculator:
P(W>2.25)≈0.97832≈0.978 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(W > 2.25) \approx 0.97832 \approx 0.978 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.9780.978

14(a)(ii)

1. Determine the normal distribution parameters for the total cost of $k$ Snappers.

Let SiS_i be the mass of the ii-th Snapper. We are given Si∼N(0.45,0.0202)S_i \sim \mathrm{N}(0.45, 0.020^2).
The total cost for kk Snappers is C=18.50(S1+S2+⋯+Sk)C = 18.50(S_1 + S_2 + \dots + S_k).
Since the masses are independent,
E(C)=18.50×k×0.45=8.325k\mathrm{E}(C) = 18.50 \times k \times 0.45 = 8.325k
Var(C)=18.502×k×0.0202=342.25×0.0004k=0.1369k\mathrm{Var}(C) = 18.50^2 \times k \times 0.020^2 = 342.25 \times 0.0004k = 0.1369k
∴C∼N(8.325k,0.1369k)\therefore C \sim \mathrm{N}(8.325k, 0.1369k)

2. Set up the probability inequality based on Mrs Tan's budget.

Mrs Tan brings $50\char36{}50 and wants to be at least 95%95\% certain that she has enough money to pay for the purchase. This means we require:
P(C≤50)≥0.95\mathrm{P}(C \le 50) \ge 0.95

3. Standardise the normal variable to form an inequality in terms of $k$.

Standardising the distribution of CC:
P(Z≤50−8.325k0.1369k)≥0.95\mathrm{P}\left(Z \le \frac{50 - 8.325k}{\sqrt{0.1369k}}\right) \ge 0.95
Using the standard normal distribution, P(Z≤1.64485)≈0.95\mathrm{P}(Z \le 1.64485) \approx 0.95, so we require the upper limit to be at least 1.644851.64485:
50−8.325k0.37k≥1.64485\frac{50 - 8.325k}{0.37\sqrt{k}} \ge 1.64485
50−8.325k≥0.60859k50 - 8.325k \ge 0.60859\sqrt{k}
8.325k+0.60859k−50≤08.325k + 0.60859\sqrt{k} - 50 \le 0

4. Solve the quadratic inequality to find the maximum integer value of $k$.

Let y=ky = \sqrt{k}. The inequality is 8.325y2+0.60859y−50≤08.325y^2 + 0.60859y - 50 \le 0.
Solving the corresponding quadratic equation 8.325y2+0.60859y−50=08.325y^2 + 0.60859y - 50 = 0:
y=−0.60859±0.608592−4(8.325)(−50)2(8.325)y = \frac{-0.60859 \pm \sqrt{0.60859^2 - 4(8.325)(-50)}}{2(8.325)}
y=−0.60859±0.37038+166516.65y = \frac{-0.60859 \pm \sqrt{0.37038 + 1665}}{16.65}
y≈2.4144ory≈−2.4875y \approx 2.4144 \quad \text{or} \quad y \approx -2.4875
Since y=k≥0y = \sqrt{k} \ge 0, we have 0≤k≤2.41440 \le \sqrt{k} \le 2.4144.
k≤2.41442  ⟹  k≤5.829k \le 2.4144^2 \implies k \le 5.829
Since kk must be a whole number, the maximum number of Snappers Mrs Tan could buy is 5.

(Alternatively, checking values using a graphing calculator gives P(C≤50)≈1.000\mathrm{P}(C \le 50) \approx 1.000 for k=5k=5 and ≈0.522\approx 0.522 for k=6k=6, confirming max k=5k=5.)

Answer

5

14(b)

1. Find the probability that a single Garoupa weighs more than 0.48 kg.

Let XX be the mass of a Garoupa in kg.
X∼N(0.50,0.0252)X \sim \mathrm{N}(0.50, 0.025^2)

P(X>0.48)≈0.78814P(X > 0.48) \approx 0.78814

2. Set up a binomial distribution for the number of Garoupas weighing more than 0.48 kg.

Let WW be the number of Garoupas out of 6 that weigh more than 0.48 kg.
Assuming their masses are independent, W∼B(6,0.78814)W \sim \mathrm{B}(6, 0.78814).

3. Calculate the probability that more than 3 Garoupas weigh more than 0.48 kg.

We require P(W>3)P(W > 3).
P(W>3)=P(W≥4)=1−P(W≤3)P(W > 3) = P(W \ge 4) = 1 - P(W \le 3)

Using a graphing calculator:
P(W≥4)≈0.88579P(W \ge 4) \approx 0.88579
P(W>3)=0.886 (to 3 s.f.)P(W > 3) = 0.886 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.8860.886

14(c)

1. Find the probability that a single Garoupa has a mass greater than 0.48 kg.

Let GG be the mass of a Garoupa.
G∼N(0.50,0.0252)G \sim \mathrm{N}(0.50, 0.025^2)
P(G>0.48)≈0.78814\mathrm{P}(G > 0.48) \approx 0.78814

2. Deduce the required condition and calculate the final probability for all 6 Garoupas.

The lightest Garoupa has a mass greater than 0.48 kg0.48\text{ kg} if and only if all 66 Garoupas have a mass greater than 0.48 kg0.48\text{ kg}.
Assuming the masses of the Garoupas are independent,
P(all 6 Garoupas>0.48)=[P(G>0.48)]6\mathrm{P}(\text{all } 6 \text{ Garoupas} > 0.48) = [\mathrm{P}(G > 0.48)]^6
≈(0.78814)6\approx (0.78814)^6
≈0.23964≈0.240\approx 0.23964 \approx 0.240 (to 3 s.f.)

Answer

0.2400.240

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