In this question you should state clearly the parameters of any normal distributions you use. The masses in kilograms of chickens have the distribution N(1.5,σ2)N(1.5,\sigma^2) such that 7.65% of them have a mass greater than 1.6 kg.

  1. (a)

    Find the value of σ\sigma.

  2. (b)

    The masses in kilograms of ducks have the distribution N(2.0,0.082)N(2.0,0.08^2). Find the probability that the mass of a randomly chosen chicken is less than 1.6 kg and the mass of a randomly chosen duck is more than 1.9 kg.

  3. (c)

    Chickens and ducks are sold at $11 per kg and $18 per kg respectively. Find the probability that the total selling price of 4 randomly chosen chickens differs from twice the selling price of a randomly chosen duck by at least $5.

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Worked solution

10(a)

1. Express the given probability using the standard normal variable $Z$.

Let CC be the mass of a chicken, so C∼N(1.5,σ2)C \sim \mathrm{N}(1.5, \sigma^2).
We are given that P(C>1.6)=0.0765\mathrm{P}(C > 1.6) = 0.0765.
Standardising, we have:
P(Z>1.6−1.5σ)=0.0765\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{1.6 - 1.5}{\sigma}\right) = 0.0765
P(Z≤0.1σ)=1−0.0765=0.9235\mathrm{P}\left(Z \le \frac{0.1}{\sigma}\right) = 1 - 0.0765 = 0.9235

2. Use the inverse normal function to solve for $\sigma$.

Using the inverse normal distribution function on a graphing calculator:
0.1σ≈1.42898\frac{0.1}{\sigma} \approx 1.42898
σ=0.11.42898≈0.06998\sigma = \frac{0.1}{1.42898} \approx 0.06998
σ≈0.0700 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma \approx 0.0700 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.07000.0700

10(b)

1. Find the probability that a chosen chicken has a mass less than 1.6 kg.

Let CC be the mass of a chicken in kg.
Since 7.65%7.65\% of chickens have a mass greater than 1.6 kg1.6\text{ kg}, the probability of being less than 1.6 kg1.6\text{ kg} is:
P(C<1.6)=1−0.0765=0.9235\text{P}(C < 1.6) = 1 - 0.0765 = 0.9235

2. Find the probability that a chosen duck has a mass more than 1.9 kg.

Let DD be the mass of a duck in kg.
Given the distribution D∼N(2.0,0.082)D \sim N(2.0, 0.08^2),
P(D>1.9)=0.89435\text{P}(D > 1.9) = 0.89435

3. Calculate the combined probability of both independent events occurring.

Since the choice of a chicken and a duck are independent events, we multiply their respective probabilities:
Required probability=P(C<1.6)×P(D>1.9)\text{Required probability} = \text{P}(C < 1.6) \times \text{P}(D > 1.9)
=0.9235×0.89435= 0.9235 \times 0.89435
=0.82593= 0.82593
≈0.826 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.826 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.8260.826

10(c)

1. Calculate the standard deviation $\sigma$ from the given probability (from part a).

From part (a), C∼N(1.5,σ2)C \sim \mathrm{N}(1.5, \sigma^2) and P(C>1.6)=0.0765\mathrm{P}(C > 1.6) = 0.0765.
Standardising the variable:
P(Z>1.6−1.5σ)=0.0765\mathrm{P}\left(Z > \frac{1.6 - 1.5}{\sigma}\right) = 0.0765
Using the inverse normal distribution, z≈1.4290z \approx 1.4290.
0.1σ=1.4290  ⟹  σ≈0.069977 kg\frac{0.1}{\sigma} = 1.4290 \implies \sigma \approx 0.069977 \text{ kg}

2. Define the expected selling prices for the chickens and the duck.

Let SC=11(C1+C2+C3+C4)S_C = 11(C_1 + C_2 + C_3 + C_4) be the selling price of 4 randomly chosen chickens.
Let SD=2×18D=36DS_D = 2 \times 18D = 36D be twice the selling price of 1 randomly chosen duck.
Let W=SD−SCW = S_D - S_C be the difference in selling prices.
E(SC)=11(4)(1.5)=66\mathrm{E}(S_C) = 11(4)(1.5) = 66
E(SD)=36(2.0)=72\mathrm{E}(S_D) = 36(2.0) = 72
E(W)=72−66=6\mathrm{E}(W) = 72 - 66 = 6

3. Calculate the variance of the difference in selling prices.

Var(SC)=112(4)(σ2)=484(0.069977)2≈2.3701\mathrm{Var}(S_C) = 11^2(4)(\sigma^2) = 484(0.069977)^2 \approx 2.3701
Var(SD)=362(0.082)=8.2944\mathrm{Var}(S_D) = 36^2(0.08^2) = 8.2944
Since the chickens and the duck are chosen independently,
Var(W)=Var(SD)+Var(SC)=8.2944+2.3701=10.6645\mathrm{Var}(W) = \mathrm{Var}(S_D) + \mathrm{Var}(S_C) = 8.2944 + 2.3701 = 10.6645
Thus, the difference WW follows a normal distribution: W∼N(6,10.6645)W \sim \mathrm{N}(6, 10.6645).

4. Calculate the probability that the difference is at least \$5.

We require the probability that the difference is at least $5, which is P(∣W∣≥5)\mathrm{P}(|W| \ge 5).
P(∣W∣≥5)=P(W≥5)+P(W≤−5)\mathrm{P}(|W| \ge 5) = \mathrm{P}(W \ge 5) + \mathrm{P}(W \le -5)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(W≥5)≈0.62029\mathrm{P}(W \ge 5) \approx 0.62029
P(W≤−5)≈0.00038\mathrm{P}(W \le -5) \approx 0.00038
P(∣W∣≥5)=0.62029+0.00038=0.62067≈0.621 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(|W| \ge 5) = 0.62029 + 0.00038 = 0.62067 \approx 0.621 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.6210.621

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