A farmer claims that the mean weight of the melons grown in his farm is at least 1.2 kg. A random sample of 10 melons is chosen and the weight, xx kg, of each melon is recorded. The results are as follows:
1.0370.9141.0191.2341.110
1.4171.0080.8461.1051.331
Assuming the weight of a randomly chosen melon follows a normal distribution, carry out an appropriate test of the farmer's claim at the 10% significance level. A buyer concludes that the sample could not provide sufficient evidence, at α%\alpha\% significance level, that the mean weight differs from 1.2 kg. State the range of values of α\alpha for him to draw such a conclusion. Another random sample of 40 melons is weighed and the results are as follows: ∑x=45.738\sum x = 45.738 and ∑x2=72.576\sum x^{2} = 72.576

  1. ((i))

    By combining the 2 sets of data, find unbiased estimates of the population mean and population variance of the weight of a melon grown by this farmer.

  2. ((ii))

    The farmer decides to change the claim to “the mean weight of the melons grown in his farm is at least mm kg”. Based on the combined sample of size 50, find the set of values of mm for which the farmer's claim is not rejected at the 5% significance level.

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Worked solution

10((i))

1. Calculate $\sum x$ and $\sum x^2$ for the first sample

For the first sample of n1=10n_1 = 10 melons:
∑1x=1.037+0.914+⋯+1.331=11.021\sum_{1} x = 1.037 + 0.914 + \dots + 1.331 = 11.021
∑1x2=1.0372+0.9142+⋯+1.3312=12.436237\sum_{1} x^2 = 1.037^2 + 0.914^2 + \dots + 1.331^2 = 12.436237

2. Find the combined sums for the overall sample

For the combined sample (n=10+40=50n = 10 + 40 = 50):
∑x=11.021+45.738=56.759\sum x = 11.021 + 45.738 = 56.759
∑x2=12.436237+72.576=85.012237\sum x^2 = 12.436237 + 72.576 = 85.012237

3. Calculate the unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance

Unbiased estimate of population mean, xˉ\bar{x}:
xˉ=∑xn=56.75950=1.13518≈1.14 (3 s.f.)\bar{x} = \frac{\sum x}{n} = \frac{56.759}{50} = 1.13518 \approx 1.14 \text{ (3 s.f.)}

Unbiased estimate of population variance, s2s^2:
s2=1n−1(∑x2−(∑x)2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n} \right)
s2=149(85.012237−(56.759)250)s^2 = \frac{1}{49} \left( 85.012237 - \frac{(56.759)^2}{50} \right)
s2=149(85.012237−64.43168162)s^2 = \frac{1}{49} \left( 85.012237 - 64.43168162 \right)
s2=20.5805553849=0.420011⋯≈0.420 (3 s.f.)s^2 = \frac{20.58055538}{49} = 0.420011\dots \approx 0.420 \text{ (3 s.f.)}

Answer

Unbiased estimate of population mean =1.14= 1.14 (to 3 s.f.)
Unbiased estimate of population variance =0.420= 0.420 (to 3 s.f.)

10((ii))

1. Calculate the sample mean and unbiased variance of the combined sample (required from part (i)).

For the first sample (n1=10n_1=10):
∑x=1.037+0.914+⋯+1.331=11.021\sum x = 1.037 + 0.914 + \dots + 1.331 = 11.021
∑x2=1.0372+0.9142+⋯+1.3312=12.436237\sum x^2 = 1.037^2 + 0.914^2 + \dots + 1.331^2 = 12.436237

For the second sample (n2=40n_2=40):
∑x=45.738\sum x = 45.738, ∑x2=72.576\sum x^2 = 72.576

Combined sample (n=50n=50):
∑x=11.021+45.738=56.759\sum x = 11.021 + 45.738 = 56.759
∑x2=12.436237+72.576=85.012237\sum x^2 = 12.436237 + 72.576 = 85.012237

Unbiased estimate of population mean:
xˉ=56.75950=1.13518\bar{x} = \frac{56.759}{50} = 1.13518

Unbiased estimate of population variance:
s2=149(85.012237−56.759250)≈0.420011s^2 = \frac{1}{49}\left(85.012237 - \frac{56.759^2}{50}\right) \approx 0.420011

2. Set up the hypotheses and state the non-rejection condition for the test.

Let μ\mu be the population mean weight of the melons.
The farmer claims the mean is at least mm kg, so we test to see if there is significant evidence that it is less.
H0:μ=mH_0: \mu = m
H1:μ<mH_1: \mu < m

Since n=50n = 50 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, the test statistic is:
Z=Xˉ−ms/50∼N(0,1)Z = \frac{\bar{X} - m}{s / \sqrt{50}} \sim N(0, 1) approximately.

At the 5%5\% significance level for a 1-tailed test, the critical value is z=−1.64485z = -1.64485.
For the farmer's claim not to be rejected, the test statistic must fall outside the critical region (i.e. to the right of the critical value):
Z≥−1.64485Z \ge -1.64485

3. Solve the inequality to find the set of values of m.

Substitute the calculated values into the inequality:
1.13518−m0.420011/50≥−1.64485\frac{1.13518 - m}{\sqrt{0.420011 / 50}} \ge -1.64485

1.13518−m0.091653≥−1.64485\frac{1.13518 - m}{0.091653} \ge -1.64485

1.13518−m≥−1.64485×0.0916531.13518 - m \ge -1.64485 \times 0.091653
1.13518−m≥−0.1507551.13518 - m \ge -0.150755
m≤1.13518+0.150755m \le 1.13518 + 0.150755
m≤1.2859m \le 1.2859

Therefore, to 3 significant figures, m≤1.29m \le 1.29.

Answer

m≤1.29m \le 1.29

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