一位农夫声称他农场种植的甜瓜平均重量至少为 1.2 kg。随机抽取了 10 个甜瓜作为样本,并记录了每个甜瓜的重量 xx kg。结果如下:
1.0370.9141.0191.2341.110
1.4171.0080.8461.1051.331
假设随机挑选的甜瓜重量服从正态分布,在 10% 的显著性水平下对该农夫的声称进行适当的检验。 一位买家得出结论,在 α%\alpha\% 的显著性水平下,该样本无法提供足够的证据表明平均重量不同于 1.2 kg。写出他得出该结论时 α\alpha 的取值范围。 对另一个包含 40 个甜瓜的随机样本进行称重,结果如下: ∑x=45.738\sum x = 45.738 且 ∑x2=72.576\sum x^{2} = 72.576

  1. ((i))

    通过合并这两组数据,求该农夫种植的甜瓜重量的总体均值和总体方差的无偏估计。

  2. ((ii))

    农夫决定将声明改为“他农场种植的甜瓜的平均重量至少为 mm kg”。根据容量为 50 的合并样本,求在 5% 的显著性水平下,使得农夫的声明不被拒绝的 mm 的取值集合。

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完整解法

10((i))

1. Calculate $\sum x$ and $\sum x^2$ for the first sample

For the first sample of n1=10n_1 = 10 melons:
∑1x=1.037+0.914+⋯+1.331=11.021\sum_{1} x = 1.037 + 0.914 + \dots + 1.331 = 11.021
∑1x2=1.0372+0.9142+⋯+1.3312=12.436237\sum_{1} x^2 = 1.037^2 + 0.914^2 + \dots + 1.331^2 = 12.436237

2. Find the combined sums for the overall sample

For the combined sample (n=10+40=50n = 10 + 40 = 50):
∑x=11.021+45.738=56.759\sum x = 11.021 + 45.738 = 56.759
∑x2=12.436237+72.576=85.012237\sum x^2 = 12.436237 + 72.576 = 85.012237

3. Calculate the unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance

Unbiased estimate of population mean, xˉ\bar{x}:
xˉ=∑xn=56.75950=1.13518≈1.14 (3 s.f.)\bar{x} = \frac{\sum x}{n} = \frac{56.759}{50} = 1.13518 \approx 1.14 \text{ (3 s.f.)}

Unbiased estimate of population variance, s2s^2:
s2=1n−1(∑x2−(∑x)2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n} \right)
s2=149(85.012237−(56.759)250)s^2 = \frac{1}{49} \left( 85.012237 - \frac{(56.759)^2}{50} \right)
s2=149(85.012237−64.43168162)s^2 = \frac{1}{49} \left( 85.012237 - 64.43168162 \right)
s2=20.5805553849=0.420011⋯≈0.420 (3 s.f.)s^2 = \frac{20.58055538}{49} = 0.420011\dots \approx 0.420 \text{ (3 s.f.)}

答案

Unbiased estimate of population mean =1.14= 1.14 (to 3 s.f.)
Unbiased estimate of population variance =0.420= 0.420 (to 3 s.f.)

10((ii))

1. Calculate the sample mean and unbiased variance of the combined sample (required from part (i)).

For the first sample (n1=10n_1=10):
∑x=1.037+0.914+⋯+1.331=11.021\sum x = 1.037 + 0.914 + \dots + 1.331 = 11.021
∑x2=1.0372+0.9142+⋯+1.3312=12.436237\sum x^2 = 1.037^2 + 0.914^2 + \dots + 1.331^2 = 12.436237

For the second sample (n2=40n_2=40):
∑x=45.738\sum x = 45.738, ∑x2=72.576\sum x^2 = 72.576

Combined sample (n=50n=50):
∑x=11.021+45.738=56.759\sum x = 11.021 + 45.738 = 56.759
∑x2=12.436237+72.576=85.012237\sum x^2 = 12.436237 + 72.576 = 85.012237

Unbiased estimate of population mean:
xˉ=56.75950=1.13518\bar{x} = \frac{56.759}{50} = 1.13518

Unbiased estimate of population variance:
s2=149(85.012237−56.759250)≈0.420011s^2 = \frac{1}{49}\left(85.012237 - \frac{56.759^2}{50}\right) \approx 0.420011

2. Set up the hypotheses and state the non-rejection condition for the test.

Let μ\mu be the population mean weight of the melons.
The farmer claims the mean is at least mm kg, so we test to see if there is significant evidence that it is less.
H0:μ=mH_0: \mu = m
H1:μ<mH_1: \mu < m

Since n=50n = 50 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, the test statistic is:
Z=Xˉ−ms/50∼N(0,1)Z = \frac{\bar{X} - m}{s / \sqrt{50}} \sim N(0, 1) approximately.

At the 5%5\% significance level for a 1-tailed test, the critical value is z=−1.64485z = -1.64485.
For the farmer's claim not to be rejected, the test statistic must fall outside the critical region (i.e. to the right of the critical value):
Z≥−1.64485Z \ge -1.64485

3. Solve the inequality to find the set of values of m.

Substitute the calculated values into the inequality:
1.13518−m0.420011/50≥−1.64485\frac{1.13518 - m}{\sqrt{0.420011 / 50}} \ge -1.64485

1.13518−m0.091653≥−1.64485\frac{1.13518 - m}{0.091653} \ge -1.64485

1.13518−m≥−1.64485×0.0916531.13518 - m \ge -1.64485 \times 0.091653
1.13518−m≥−0.1507551.13518 - m \ge -0.150755
m≤1.13518+0.150755m \le 1.13518 + 0.150755
m≤1.2859m \le 1.2859

Therefore, to 3 significant figures, m≤1.29m \le 1.29.

答案

m≤1.29m \le 1.29

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