Fishing Company A has two types of fishing vessels, the "Standard" vessel and the "Large" vessel. The amount of fish caught by the respective vessels on a typical fishing trip are normally distributed with means and standard deviations as shown in the table.
Mean (kg) Standard deviation (kg) Standard 300 Large 540 110
| Mean (kg) | Standard deviation (kg) | |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 300 | |
| Large | 540 | 110 |
- (a)
If a Standard vessel returns with more than 400kg of fish, it is called a Bumper catch. Bumper catches occur 8% of the time. Show that .
- (b)
On a particular fishing trip, Company A sends out 3 Standard vessels and 2 Large vessels, with a target to catch at least 2100kg of fish. Find the probability that the fishing vessels are able to meet their target.
- (c)
State an assumption needed in your calculation in part (b).
- (d)
Fishing Company B operates in the same seas as Fishing Company A. However, Company B has the improved versions of the two types of fishing vessels that Company A has: the "Premium-Standard" vessel and the "Premium-Large" vessel. In a fishing trip, the Premium-Standard vessel is capable of catching 3 times as much fish as the Standard vessel and the Premium-Large vessel is capable of catching 2 times as much fish as Large vessel.
Company B sends out 1 Premium-Standard vessel and 1 Premium-Large vessel, with the same target to catch at least 2100kg of fish. Find the probability that these two fishing vessels are able to meet their target.
- (e)
It is found that, in a sample of randomly chosen fishing trips, the probability that the average catch of a Large vessel being less than 552kg is at least 0.7. Find the least possible value of .
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Worked solution
10(a)
1. Set up the probability equation and standardise the variable.
Let be the mass of fish caught by a Standard vessel in kg.
Given , we standardise to the standard normal distribution :
2. Use the inverse normal function to solve for the standard deviation.
Using the graphing calculator (inverse normal):
10(b)
1. Define the total catch random variable and calculate its expected value.
Let the total catch be .
2. Calculate the variance of the total catch.
Using the unrounded standard deviation (derived from part a):
3. Calculate the probability that the total catch meets the target.
Since is a linear combination of independent normal variables, .
We require :
10(c)
1. Identify the statistical assumption necessary for the linear combination of random variables
In part (b), we calculate the variance of the total catch by summing the variances of the individual catches: . This requires the assumption that the random variables are independent.
The amount of fish caught by each of the vessels are independent of one another.
10(d)
1. Define the distribution for the total catch by Company B's vessels, noting that their catches are multiples of the standard and large vessels.
Let be the total catch by Premium-Standard and Premium-Large vessel.
Since the Premium-Standard catches times as much as a Standard vessel, its catch is . The Premium-Large catches times as much as a Large vessel, so its catch is .
Using from part (a):
Thus, .
2. Calculate the probability that the total catch is at least 2100 kg.
We require .
Using the normal cumulative distribution function on a graphing calculator:
10(e)
1. State the distribution of the sample mean.
Let be the sample mean catch of a Large vessel for trips.
Since the catch of a Large vessel is normally distributed with mean kg and standard deviation kg, the sample mean follows:
2. Set up the probability inequality and standardise.
We are given that .
Standardising the variable to the standard normal distribution :
3. Solve the inequality for $n$ using the inverse normal function.
Using the inverse normal function for an area of , we find the critical -value is approximately .
Since must be an integer (representing the number of trips), the least possible value of is .
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