第二部分:统计学 作为SG50庆祝活动的一部分,当地的一个基层组织邀请了社区居民观看一部关于1964年种族暴动的电影。

  1. (i)

    一位新闻记者想在活动现场采访15个人,以了解这部电影对他们的影响。描述在这种情境下如何获取一个配额样本。

  2. (ii)

    在放映电影之前,居民被要求在服务台登记,提供他们的个人详细信息,如姓名、联系电话和年龄。他们的年龄分布如下:

    年龄段21岁以下21 - 35岁36 - 50岁50岁以上
    居民人数13019526065

    主办方打算在活动结束后,通过电话联系其中一些人,收集关于该活动针对不同年龄段的反馈。

    结合情境,描述主办方如何获取一个容量为30的具有代表性的随机样本。说明与使用配额抽样相比,使用这种方法的一个缺点(除了需要抽样框和背景信息之外)。

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完整解法

5(i)

1. Describe the establishment of quotas based on a characteristic.

The reporter decides on a demographic characteristic (such as gender or age group) and divides the sample of 1515 people into specific quotas for each category.

2. Describe the non-random method of data collection.

He then approaches people at the event venue on a convenience basis (e.g., stopping people as they enter or leave) and interviews them until the required quota for each category is completely met.

答案

The reporter chooses a specific characteristic (e.g., gender or age) and sets a quota for each category such that the total number of people to be interviewed is 1515. He then approaches and interviews people at the event venue based on convenience (e.g., as they walk past him), continuing until the quota for every category is filled.

5(ii)

1. Calculate the sample size to be selected from each age group (stratum) to ensure proportional representation.

Total number of residents =130+195+260+65=650= 130 + 195 + 260 + 65 = 650

Sampling fraction =30650= \frac{30}{650}

Number of residents to select from each age group:

  • Below 21 years old: 130×30650=6130 \times \frac{30}{650} = 6
  • 21 - 35 years old: 195×30650=9195 \times \frac{30}{650} = 9
  • 36 - 50 years old: 260×30650=12260 \times \frac{30}{650} = 12
  • Above 50 years old: 65×30650=365 \times \frac{30}{650} = 3

2. Describe the random selection procedure within each stratum.

Number the residents in each of the 4 age groups from 11 to NN, where NN is the number of residents in that group. For each group, use a random number generator to select the required number of unique random integers. The residents corresponding to these selected numbers will form the sample and be contacted through telephone.

3. State a disadvantage of this method compared to quota sampling.

A disadvantage is the problem of non-response (e.g., selected residents not picking up the phone or refusing to give feedback). Unlike quota sampling where an uncontactable person is simply replaced by the next available willing individual in that age group, stratified random sampling requires specific selected individuals to be chased up, which makes reaching the exact sample size of 30 difficult and time-consuming.

答案

Sampling Procedure:
Group the residents into the 4 age groups. Calculate the proportional number of residents to sample from each group:

  • Below 21 years old: 6
  • 21 - 35 years old: 9
  • 36 - 50 years old: 12
  • Above 50 years old: 3

Number the residents within each respective group list. Using a random number generator, generate the required amount of unique random numbers for each group. Select the residents corresponding to the generated numbers and contact them via telephone.

Disadvantage:
If a selected resident is uncontactable or refuses to participate (non-response), they cannot be simply replaced without compromising the random sampling process. In quota sampling, an uncontactable person is easily replaced by finding the next available person until the quota is met.

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