一家商店出售袋装苹果,每袋装有 12 个苹果。每袋中未成熟苹果的平均数量为 2.16。

  1. (a)

    写出将每袋中未成熟苹果的数量很好地建模为二项分布所需的两个假设。

  2. (b)

    如果一袋苹果中未成熟的苹果数量超过 3 个,则该袋苹果将降价出售。

    求随机选择的一袋苹果降价出售的概率。

  3. (c)

    随机选择 20 袋苹果。求其中少于 4 袋降价出售的概率。

  4. (d)

    该商店还出售袋装橙子,每袋装有 nn 个橙子。平均而言,未成熟橙子的比例为 0.16。

    已知一袋中未成熟橙子数量的众数为 2。求 nn 所有可能值的集合。

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完整解法

7(a)

1. State the assumption regarding constant probability.

The probability that any individual apple is unripe is constant.

2. State the assumption regarding independence.

The event that an apple is unripe is independent of the ripeness of any other apple in the bag.

答案
  1. The probability that an apple is unripe is constant for all apples.
  2. Whether an apple is unripe is independent of whether any other apple is unripe.

7(b)

1. Find the probability $p$ of a randomly selected apple being unripe using the given mean.

E(X)=np\text{E}(X) = np
12p=2.1612p = 2.16
p=0.18p = 0.18

2. Define the binomial random variable and formulate the required probability.

Let XX be the number of unripe apples in a bag of 12.
X∼B(12,0.18)X \sim \text{B}(12, 0.18)
We require the probability that more than 3 apples are unripe (X>3X > 3):
P(X>3)=1−P(X≤3)P(X > 3) = 1 - P(X \le 3)

3. Evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator.

P(X>3)=1−0.844813P(X > 3) = 1 - 0.844813
=0.155187= 0.155187
≈0.155 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.155 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.1550.155

7(c)

1. Find the probability of a bag being sold at a reduced price (result needed from part (b)).

Let XX be the number of unripe apples in a bag of 1212.
E(X)=12p=2.16  ⟹  p=0.18E(X) = 12p = 2.16 \implies p = 0.18
∴X∼B(12,0.18)\therefore X \sim \text{B}(12, 0.18)
P(reduced price)=P(X>3)=1−P(X≤3)≈0.15512P(\text{reduced price}) = P(X > 3) = 1 - P(X \le 3) \approx 0.15512

2. Define the binomial distribution for the number of reduced price bags and find the required probability.

Let YY be the number of bags sold at a reduced price out of 2020.
Y∼B(20,0.15512)Y \sim \text{B}(20, 0.15512)
We want P(Y<4)P(Y < 4):
P(Y<4)=P(Y≤3)≈0.62179≈0.622 (to 3 s.f.)P(Y < 4) = P(Y \le 3) \approx 0.62179 \approx 0.622 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.6220.622

7(d)

1. Set up the conditions for the mode of a binomial distribution

Let YY be the number of unripe oranges in a bag of nn oranges.
Assume Y∼B(n,0.16)Y \sim \mathrm{B}(n, 0.16).
Since the modal number of unripe oranges is 2, the probability of getting exactly 2 unripe oranges must be greater than or equal to the probability of getting 1 or 3 unripe oranges.
Thus, we must have P(Y=2)≥P(Y=1)\mathrm{P}(Y=2) \ge \mathrm{P}(Y=1) and P(Y=2)≥P(Y=3)\mathrm{P}(Y=2) \ge \mathrm{P}(Y=3).

2. Solve the inequality $\mathrm{P}(Y=2) \ge \mathrm{P}(Y=1)$ for $n$

(n2)(0.16)2(0.84)n−2≥(n1)(0.16)1(0.84)n−1\binom{n}{2} (0.16)^2 (0.84)^{n-2} \ge \binom{n}{1} (0.16)^1 (0.84)^{n-1}
n(n−1)2n(0.160.84)≥1\frac{\frac{n(n-1)}{2}}{n} \left( \frac{0.16}{0.84} \right) \ge 1
n−12(421)≥1\frac{n-1}{2} \left( \frac{4}{21} \right) \ge 1
n−1≥212=10.5n-1 \ge \frac{21}{2} = 10.5
n≥11.5n \ge 11.5

3. Solve the inequality $\mathrm{P}(Y=2) \ge \mathrm{P}(Y=3)$ for $n$

(n2)(0.16)2(0.84)n−2≥(n3)(0.16)3(0.84)n−3\binom{n}{2} (0.16)^2 (0.84)^{n-2} \ge \binom{n}{3} (0.16)^3 (0.84)^{n-3}
n(n−1)2n(n−1)(n−2)6(0.840.16)≥1\frac{\frac{n(n-1)}{2}}{\frac{n(n-1)(n-2)}{6}} \left( \frac{0.84}{0.16} \right) \ge 1
3n−2(214)≥1\frac{3}{n-2} \left( \frac{21}{4} \right) \ge 1
634≥n−2\frac{63}{4} \ge n-2
15.75≥n−2  ⟹  n≤17.7515.75 \ge n-2 \implies n \le 17.75

4. Determine the set of possible integer values for $n$

Combining the results from both inequalities, we have:
11.5≤n≤17.7511.5 \le n \le 17.75
Since nn represents the number of oranges in a bag, it must be an integer.
The possible integer values are 12,13,14,15,16,1712, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17.
The set of possible values is {12,13,14,15,16,17}\{12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17\}.

答案

{12,13,14,15,16,17}\{12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17\}

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