为了保持图书馆图书的良好状态,任何多于 7 处瑕疵的图书都将被捐赠出去。参考书区每本书的平均瑕疵数为 3。参考书中的瑕疵数量是随机变量 RR。

  1. (i)

    在本题情境下,陈述将 RR 建模为泊松分布所需的两个假设。

  2. (ii)

    求一本参考书被捐赠出去的概率。

  3. (iii)

    图书馆有 1000 本参考书。使用适当的近似方法求至少有 10 本但不多于 15 本参考书被捐赠出去的概率。

  4. (iv)

    儿童书区中每本书的平均瑕疵数为 λ\lambda。

    已知 λ=5\lambda = 5,求一本随机选择的参考书和一本随机选择的儿童书中的瑕疵总数少于 10 的概率。

  5. (v)

    一本儿童书最多有一处瑕疵的概率为 0.1。求一个关于 λ\lambda 的方程,并由此求出 λ\lambda 的值。

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完整解法

9(i)

1. State the assumption of independence in context

The occurrence of one defect is independent of the occurrence of any other defects in the reference book.

2. State the assumption of constant average rate in context

The mean number of defects per reference book is constant.

答案
  1. The occurrence of one defect is independent of the occurrence of any other defects in the reference book.
  2. The mean number of defects per reference book is constant.

9(ii)

1. Identify the distribution and formulate the required probability expression

From the given context and part (i), we model the number of defects RR as a Poisson distribution with mean 3, so R∼Po(3)R \sim \text{Po}(3).
A book is donated if it has more than 7 defects, which corresponds to finding P(R>7)\text{P}(R > 7).

2. Evaluate the probability using the complement rule

P(R>7)=1−P(R≤7)\text{P}(R > 7) = 1 - \text{P}(R \le 7)
Using the cumulative distribution function for the Poisson model (via calculator):
P(R>7)=1−0.988095=0.011905\text{P}(R > 7) = 1 - 0.988095 = 0.011905
P(R>7)≈0.0119 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(R > 7) \approx 0.0119 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.0119

9(iii)

1. Determine the distribution of the number of donated books out of 1000.

From part (ii), the probability that a reference book is donated away is p=P(R>7)=1−P(R≤7)=0.0119045p = P(R > 7) = 1 - P(R \le 7) = 0.0119045.
Let YY be the number of reference books donated away out of 1000.
Y∼B(1000,0.0119045)Y \sim \text{B}(1000, 0.0119045)

2. State and justify the appropriate approximation for the binomial distribution.

Since n=1000n = 1000 is large (n≥50n \ge 50) and p=0.0119045p = 0.0119045 is small (p<0.1p < 0.1), we approximate using a Poisson distribution with mean λ=np\lambda = np.
λ=1000×0.0119045=11.9045\lambda = 1000 \times 0.0119045 = 11.9045
Therefore, Y∼Po(11.9045)Y \sim \text{Po}(11.9045) approximately.

3. Calculate the probability that at least 10 but no more than 15 books are donated away.

We require P(10≤Y≤15)P(10 \le Y \le 15).
P(10≤Y≤15)=P(Y≤15)−P(Y≤9)P(10 \le Y \le 15) = P(Y \le 15) - P(Y \le 9)
≈0.85117−0.25081\approx 0.85117 - 0.25081
=0.60036= 0.60036
≈0.600 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.600 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.600

9(iv)

1. Define the random variable for the total number of defects and state its distribution.

Let T=R+CT = R + C be the total number of defects in the two books.
Since R∼Po(3)R \sim \mathrm{Po}(3) and C∼Po(5)C \sim \mathrm{Po}(5) are independent,
T∼Po(3+5)T \sim \mathrm{Po}(3 + 5)
T∼Po(8)T \sim \mathrm{Po}(8)

2. Calculate the probability that the total number of defects is fewer than 10.

We require P(T<10)\mathrm{P}(T < 10). Since TT is discrete, this is equivalent to P(T≤9)\mathrm{P}(T \le 9).
Using a graphing calculator,
P(T≤9)≈0.71662\mathrm{P}(T \le 9) \approx 0.71662
P(T≤9)=0.717 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(T \le 9) = 0.717 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

0.7170.717

9(v)

1. Formulate an equation using the probability of at most 1 defect.

Let CC be the number of defects in a children's book. We have C∼Po(λ)C \sim \text{Po}(\lambda).
P(C≤1)=0.1\mathrm{P}(C \le 1) = 0.1
P(C=0)+P(C=1)=0.1\mathrm{P}(C = 0) + \mathrm{P}(C = 1) = 0.1
e−λλ00!+e−λλ11!=0.1e^{-\lambda} \frac{\lambda^0}{0!} + e^{-\lambda} \frac{\lambda^1}{1!} = 0.1
e−λ(1+λ)=0.1e^{-\lambda}(1 + \lambda) = 0.1

2. Solve the equation for $\lambda$ using a graphing calculator.

By plotting y1=e−x(1+x)y_1 = e^{-x}(1 + x) and y2=0.1y_2 = 0.1 (or using an equation solver) on a graphing calculator:
λ≈3.8897\lambda \approx 3.8897
λ=3.89 (to 3 s.f.)\lambda = 3.89 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

答案

Equation: e−λ(1+λ)=0.1e^{-\lambda}(1 + \lambda) = 0.1
λ=3.89\lambda = 3.89

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