对于事件 AA 和 BB,已知 P(A′)=0.3\mathrm{P}(A') = 0.3 且 P(B)=0.55\mathrm{P}(B) = 0.55。

  1. (i)

    已知事件 AA 和 BB 相互独立,求 P(A∩B)\mathrm{P}(A \cap B)。

  2. (ii)

    已知事件 AA 和 BB 不独立,求 P(A∪B)\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) 的取值范围。

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完整解法

10(i)

1. Find the probability of event $A$.

P(A)=1−P(A′)=1−0.3=0.7\mathrm{P}(A) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(A') = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7

2. Use the definition of independent events to find $\mathrm{P}(A \cap B)$.

P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)=0.7×0.55=0.385\mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = \mathrm{P}(A) \times \mathrm{P}(B) = 0.7 \times 0.55 = 0.385

答案

0.3850.385

10(ii)

1. Determine the general upper and lower bounds for $\mathrm{P}(A \cup B)$.

P(A)=1−P(A′)=1−0.3=0.7\mathrm{P}(A) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(A') = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7

The maximum possible probability for any event is 11, so P(A∪B)≤1\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \le 1.

The union of two events must be at least as probable as each individual event:
P(A∪B)≥max⁡(P(A),P(B))\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \ge \max(\mathrm{P}(A), \mathrm{P}(B))
P(A∪B)≥max⁡(0.7,0.55)=0.7\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \ge \max(0.7, 0.55) = 0.7

So the general bounds are 0.7≤P(A∪B)≤10.7 \le \mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \le 1.

2. Calculate the value of $\mathrm{P}(A \cup B)$ if the events were independent, and exclude it from the range.

If AA and BB were independent, then from part (i), P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)=0.7×0.55=0.385\mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = \mathrm{P}(A) \times \mathrm{P}(B) = 0.7 \times 0.55 = 0.385.

Using the addition rule:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) = \mathrm{P}(A) + \mathrm{P}(B) - \mathrm{P}(A \cap B)
P(A∪B)=0.7+0.55−0.385=0.865\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) = 0.7 + 0.55 - 0.385 = 0.865

Since it is given that AA and BB are NOT independent, this specific probability must be excluded.
Therefore, 0.7≤P(A∪B)≤10.7 \le \mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \le 1, where P(A∪B)≠0.865\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \neq 0.865.

答案

0.7≤P(A∪B)≤10.7 \le \mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \le 1, P(A∪B)≠0.865\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) \neq 0.865

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