Data is gathered on how exam scores, yy, vary with the number of hours, xx, students spent studying for Mathematics each week. The data for 7 students is shown below:

  1. (i)

    Sketch a scatter diagram for the data and determine the linear product-moment correlation coefficient. Comment on whether a linear model would be appropriate here.

  2. (ii)

    The following are two possible models for the data above:

    Model A: y=a+bx2y = a + \dfrac{b}{x^2}

    Model B: y=c+dxy = c + \dfrac{d}{\sqrt{x}}, where aa, bb, cc, and dd are real constants.

    State, with a reason, which of the above is a better model.

  3. (iii)

    For your choice of the model in (ii), find the corresponding equation of the least squares regression line. Use your equation to estimate the value of yy when x=65x = 65. Comment on the reliability of your answer.

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Worked solution

9(i)

1. Sketch the scatter diagram for the given data.

Plot the points (1,41)(1,41), (2,61)(2,61), (3,71)(3,71), (6,86)(6,86), (12,92)(12,92), (24,93)(24,93), and (36,95)(36,95) on a set of axes with xx (Study hours) on the horizontal axis and yy (Exam score) on the vertical axis.

[The resulting sketch should show the points forming a concave downwards curve that rises steeply at first and then levels off as xx increases.]

2. Determine the linear product-moment correlation coefficient, $r$, using a graphing calculator.

Entering the paired data (x,y)(x, y) into a graphing calculator:
n=7n = 7
∑x=84\sum x = 84, ∑y=539\sum y = 539
r≈0.729355r \approx 0.729355
r=0.729 (to 3 s.f.)r = 0.729 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the appropriateness of a linear model based on the visual trend.

A linear model would not be appropriate here because the points on the scatter diagram do not follow a straight line; instead, they exhibit a clear non-linear trend, increasing at a decreasing rate and levelling off.

Answer

[Scatter diagram sketched with xx-axis representing study hours and yy-axis representing exam scores, showing a curve that rises steeply then plateaus.]
r=0.729r = 0.729 (to 3 s.f.)
A linear model is not appropriate because the scatter diagram displays a clear curve (non-linear relationship).

9(ii)

1. Calculate the product-moment correlation coefficient for Model A.

For Model A (y=a+bx2y = a + \dfrac{b}{x^2}), the independent variable is X=1x2X = \dfrac{1}{x^2}.

Using a graphing calculator for the paired data (1x2,y)\left(\dfrac{1}{x^2}, y\right), the product-moment correlation coefficient is
rA≈−0.9077r_A \approx -0.9077

2. Calculate the product-moment correlation coefficient for Model B.

For Model B (y=c+dxy = c + \dfrac{d}{\sqrt{x}}), the independent variable is X=1xX = \dfrac{1}{\sqrt{x}}.

Using a graphing calculator for the paired data (1x,y)\left(\dfrac{1}{\sqrt{x}}, y\right), the product-moment correlation coefficient is
rB≈−0.9920r_B \approx -0.9920

3. Compare the $r$ values to conclude which model is better.

Comparing the absolute values of the correlation coefficients, ∣rB∣|r_B| is closer to 11 than ∣rA∣|r_A| (∣−0.9920∣>∣−0.9077∣|-0.9920| > |-0.9077|).

Thus, there is a stronger linear correlation between yy and 1x\dfrac{1}{\sqrt{x}} than between yy and 1x2\dfrac{1}{x^2}. Model B is the better model.

Answer

Model B is a better model as its product-moment correlation coefficient, rr, has an absolute value closer to 11.

9(iii)

1. Find the equation of the least squares regression line for the chosen model.

Assuming Model B (y=c+dxy = c + \dfrac{d}{\sqrt{x}}) was chosen in (ii) as its linear product-moment correlation coefficient is closer to −1-1 (r≈−0.992r \approx -0.992 compared to −0.907-0.907 for Model A).

Let X=1xX = \dfrac{1}{\sqrt{x}}. Entering the paired data (X,y)(X, y) into a graphing calculator, the least squares regression line of yy on XX is:
y=108.93−66.682Xy = 108.93 - 66.682 X
y=109−66.7x (to 3 s.f.)y = 109 - \dfrac{66.7}{\sqrt{x}} \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

2. Estimate the value of $y$ when $x = 65$.

Substitute x=65x = 65 into the unrounded regression equation:
y=108.93−66.68265y = 108.93 - \dfrac{66.682}{\sqrt{65}}
y=100.66≈101 (to 3 s.f.)y = 100.66 \approx 101 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

3. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.

The value x=65x = 65 lies outside the given data range of 1≤x≤361 \le x \le 36. Since this estimation involves extrapolation, the estimated value is unreliable (the linear relationship may not hold beyond the known data points).

Answer

Equation: y=109−66.7xy = 109 - \dfrac{66.7}{\sqrt{x}}
Estimate: y≈101y \approx 101
Reliability: Unreliable, as the estimation involves extrapolation outside the given data range.

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