In an examination, the score, XX, for paper 1 of a student is found to follow a normal distribution with mean 62 and standard deviation σ\sigma, and the score, YY, for paper 2 of a student is found to follow a normal distribution with mean 71 and standard deviation 8. The final score of a student for the examination is the average score of the 2 papers and it is assumed that XX and YY are independent random variables.

  1. (i)

    Find the probability that for two randomly selected students AA and BB taking the examination for paper 2, AA has at most 2 marks less than the marks of BB.

  2. (ii)

    Given that 15% of the students have at least a final score of 75, find σ\sigma.

  3. (iii)

    Using the value of σ\sigma found in part (ii), find the probability that a randomly selected student performs better in her Paper 1 than in her Paper 2.

  4. (iv)

    Comment on the validity of the answer obtained in part (ii) and (iii).

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Worked solution

8(i)

1. Determine the distribution of the difference in scores between two randomly selected students.

Let YAY_A and YBY_B be the Paper 2 scores of students AA and BB respectively.
Since YA,YB∼N(71,82)Y_A, Y_B \sim \text{N}(71, 8^2) and they are independent randomly selected students,
YA−YB∼N(71−71,82+82)Y_A - Y_B \sim \text{N}(71 - 71, 8^2 + 8^2)
YA−YB∼N(0,128)Y_A - Y_B \sim \text{N}(0, 128)

2. Formulate the required inequality and calculate the probability.

The condition 'AA has at most 22 marks less than BB' translates to YA≥YB−2Y_A \ge Y_B - 2, which rearranges to YA−YB≥−2Y_A - Y_B \ge -2.
P(YA−YB≥−2)≈0.57016P(Y_A - Y_B \ge -2) \approx 0.57016
P(YA−YB≥−2)≈0.570 (to 3 s.f.)P(Y_A - Y_B \ge -2) \approx 0.570 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.5700.570

8(ii)

1. Define the final score random variable and determine its mean and variance.

Let FF be the final score of a student. We are given F=X+Y2F = \frac{X+Y}{2}.
E(F)=E(X)+E(Y)2=62+712=66.5\mathrm{E}(F) = \frac{\mathrm{E}(X)+\mathrm{E}(Y)}{2} = \frac{62+71}{2} = 66.5
Var(F)=(12)2(Var(X)+Var(Y))=σ2+824=σ2+644\mathrm{Var}(F) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^2 (\mathrm{Var}(X)+\mathrm{Var}(Y)) = \frac{\sigma^2+8^2}{4} = \frac{\sigma^2+64}{4}
Thus, F∼N(66.5,σ2+644)F \sim \mathrm{N}\left(66.5, \frac{\sigma^2+64}{4}\right).

2. Set up the probability equation for the final score.

We are given that 15%15\% of the students have at least a final score of 7575, so:
P(F≥75)=0.15\mathrm{P}(F \ge 75) = 0.15

3. Standardise the normal variable and use the inverse normal function to find the corresponding $Z$-value.

Standardising the variable FF to Z∼N(0,1)Z \sim \mathrm{N}(0, 1):
P(Z≥75−66.5σ2+644)=0.15\mathrm{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{75 - 66.5}{\sqrt{\frac{\sigma^2+64}{4}}}\right) = 0.15
Using the inverse normal distribution (area to the left is 0.850.85):
8.5σ2+642≈1.0364\frac{8.5}{\frac{\sqrt{\sigma^2+64}}{2}} \approx 1.0364
17σ2+64=1.0364\frac{17}{\sqrt{\sigma^2+64}} = 1.0364

4. Solve for the standard deviation $\sigma$.

σ2+64=171.036433≈16.4024\sqrt{\sigma^2+64} = \frac{17}{1.036433} \approx 16.4024
σ2+64=16.40242≈269.04\sigma^2+64 = 16.4024^2 \approx 269.04
σ2=205.04\sigma^2 = 205.04
σ=205.04≈14.319\sigma = \sqrt{205.04} \approx 14.319
σ≈14.3 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma \approx 14.3 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

σ≈14.3\sigma \approx 14.3

8(iii)

1. Calculate $\sigma$ and the variance of the combined scores from the context in part (ii).

Since the value of σ\sigma is needed, we must first determine it from the given conditions in part (ii).
Let S=X+YS = X + Y be the sum of scores. The final score is S2\frac{S}{2}.
We are given P(S2≥75)=0.15\mathrm{P}\left(\frac{S}{2} \ge 75\right) = 0.15, which means P(S≥150)=0.15\mathrm{P}(S \ge 150) = 0.15.
S∼N(62+71,σ2+82)  ⟹  S∼N(133,σ2+64)S \sim \mathrm{N}(62 + 71, \sigma^2 + 8^2) \implies S \sim \mathrm{N}(133, \sigma^2 + 64)
Standardising the distribution:
P(Z≥150−133σ2+64)=0.15\mathrm{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{150 - 133}{\sqrt{\sigma^2 + 64}}\right) = 0.15
From the graphing calculator, the zz-value for the upper 15%15\% is z≈1.0364z \approx 1.0364.
17σ2+64≈1.0364  ⟹  σ2+64≈16.402\frac{17}{\sqrt{\sigma^2 + 64}} \approx 1.0364 \implies \sqrt{\sigma^2 + 64} \approx 16.402
σ2+64≈269.04  ⟹  σ≈14.3\sigma^2 + 64 \approx 269.04 \implies \sigma \approx 14.3

2. Define the distribution for the difference in scores between Paper 1 and Paper 2.

Let W=X−YW = X - Y represent the difference in scores between Paper 1 and Paper 2.
E(W)=E(X)−E(Y)=62−71=−9\mathrm{E}(W) = \mathrm{E}(X) - \mathrm{E}(Y) = 62 - 71 = -9
Since XX and YY are independent random variables:
Var⁡(W)=Var⁡(X)+Var⁡(Y)=σ2+82=σ2+64\operatorname{Var}(W) = \operatorname{Var}(X) + \operatorname{Var}(Y) = \sigma^2 + 8^2 = \sigma^2 + 64
From our previous calculation, we already found that σ2+64≈269.04\sigma^2 + 64 \approx 269.04.
Therefore, W∼N(−9,269.04)W \sim \mathrm{N}(-9, 269.04).

3. Calculate the probability that the student performs better in Paper 1.

A student performs better in Paper 1 if X>YX > Y, which translates to W>0W > 0.
P(X>Y)=P(W>0)\mathrm{P}(X > Y) = \mathrm{P}(W > 0)
Using the graphing calculator:
P(W>0)≈0.29160\mathrm{P}(W > 0) \approx 0.29160
Rounding to 3 significant figures, the probability is 0.2920.292.

Answer

0.2920.292

8(iv)

1. State whether the answers are valid and explain the realistic relationship between the two variables.

The answers obtained are likely invalid.

This is because the calculation relies on the assumption that XX and YY are independent. In reality, this assumption is unrealistic as a single student's performance in Paper 1 and Paper 2 of the same examination are likely to be dependent (e.g., positively correlated).

Answer

The answers are likely invalid. The assumption that XX and YY are independent is unrealistic, as a student's scores in Paper 1 and Paper 2 are likely to be dependent (positively correlated).

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