A chocolate manufacturing company produces chocolate bars. The packaging of the chocolate bar states that the mass of each bar is 200 g. The production manager has been receiving complaints that the mass is overstated and he wants to carry out a hypothesis test.

  1. ((i))

    Explain whether the manager should carry out a 1-tail test or a 2-tail test. State appropriate hypotheses for the test, defining any symbols you use.

  2. ((ii))

    The masses, xx grams, of a random sample of 30 chocolate bars are summarised as follows.

    $n = 30 \qquad \sum(x-200) = -54 \qquad \sum(x-200)^2 = 550

    Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the mass of chocolate bars.

  3. ((iii))

    Carry out this test, at the 1% level of significance.

  4. ((iv))

    The company replaces all the machines producing the chocolate bars. The supplier of the machines claims that the mass of each chocolate bar will have a normal distribution with mean 200 grams and standard deviation 2 grams.

    The manager takes a random sample of nn chocolate bars, and the sample mean mass is found to be 199.2 grams. A test is carried out, at the 5% level of significance, to determine whether the mean mass of the chocolate bars is indeed 200 grams. Given that the null hypothesis is not rejected, find the maximum value of nn.

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Worked solution

12((i))

1. Determine and explain the choice of a 1-tail or 2-tail test.

The manager is specifically testing if the mass is overstated, which means checking if the true mean mass is less than 200 g200\text{ g}. Since the test is looking for a decrease in one specific direction, a 1-tail test should be carried out.

2. State the hypotheses and define the symbol used.

Let μ\mu be the population mean mass of the chocolate bars in grams.

H0:μ=200H_0: \mu = 200
H1:μ<200H_1: \mu < 200

Answer

A 1-tail test should be used.
Let μ\mu be the population mean mass of the chocolate bars in grams.
H0:μ=200H_0: \mu = 200
H1:μ<200H_1: \mu < 200

12((ii))

1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean.

xˉ=a+∑(x−a)n\bar{x} = a + \frac{\sum(x-a)}{n}
xˉ=200+−5430=200−1.8=198.2\bar{x} = 200 + \frac{-54}{30} = 200 - 1.8 = 198.2

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.

s2=1n−1(∑(x−a)2−(∑(x−a))2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum(x-a)^2 - \frac{(\sum(x-a))^2}{n} \right)
s2=130−1(550−(−54)230)s^2 = \frac{1}{30-1} \left( 550 - \frac{(-54)^2}{30} \right)
s2=129(550−291630)s^2 = \frac{1}{29} \left( 550 - \frac{2916}{30} \right)
s2=129(550−97.2)s^2 = \frac{1}{29} ( 550 - 97.2 )
s2=452.829≈15.614≈15.6 (to 3 s.f.)s^2 = \frac{452.8}{29} \approx 15.614 \approx 15.6 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

Mean =198.2= 198.2, Variance =15.6= 15.6 (to 3 s.f.)

12((iii))

1. Determine the test statistic and $p$-value using the sample statistics.

From parts (i) and (ii), we are testing H0:μ=200H_0: \mu = 200 against H1:μ<200H_1: \mu < 200, with xˉ=198.2\bar{x} = 198.2 and s2=2264145≈15.614s^2 = \frac{2264}{145} \approx 15.614.

Since n=30n = 30 is large, we use a ZZ-test. Under H0H_0, the test statistic is:
z=xˉ−μ0s2/n=198.2−20015.613830≈−2.495z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\sqrt{s^2 / n}} = \frac{198.2 - 200}{\sqrt{\frac{15.6138}{30}}} \approx -2.495

Using a graphing calculator,
p-value=0.00630 (to 3 s.f.)p\text{-value} = 0.00630 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

2. Compare the $p$-value to the significance level and state the conclusion in context.

Level of significance, α=0.01\alpha = 0.01.

Since p-value=0.00630<0.01p\text{-value} = 0.00630 < 0.01, we reject H0H_0.

There is sufficient evidence at the 1% level of significance to conclude that the mean mass of the chocolate bars is less than 200 g200\text{ g} (i.e. the manager's complaints that the mass is overstated are justified).

Answer

Since the pp-value (0.006300.00630) is less than 0.010.01, reject H0H_0. There is sufficient evidence at the 1% level of significance that the mass of the chocolate bars is overstated.

12((iv))

1. State the hypotheses and find the critical value for the test.

Let μ\mu be the population mean mass in grams.
H0:μ=200H_0: \mu = 200
H1:μ≠200H_1: \mu \neq 200
Since the test is to determine if the mean is indeed 200 g, we use a 2-tail test at the 5% level of significance (α=0.05\alpha = 0.05).
The critical zz-values are ±1.95996\pm 1.95996.

2. Set up the inequality for the non-rejection of the null hypothesis.

Under H0H_0, the test statistic is Z=Xˉ−μσ/nZ = \frac{\bar{X} - \mu}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}.
For H0H_0 to not be rejected, the test statistic must fall inside the non-rejection region (between the critical values). Given xˉ=199.2<200\bar{x} = 199.2 < 200, we consider the lower tail limit:
Zstat≥−1.95996Z_{\text{stat}} \ge -1.95996
199.2−2002/n≥−1.95996\frac{199.2 - 200}{2 / \sqrt{n}} \ge -1.95996

3. Solve the inequality for $n$.

−0.82/n≥−1.95996\frac{-0.8}{2/\sqrt{n}} \ge -1.95996
−0.4n≥−1.95996-0.4\sqrt{n} \ge -1.95996
n≤−1.95996−0.4\sqrt{n} \le \frac{-1.95996}{-0.4}
n≤4.8999\sqrt{n} \le 4.8999
n≤24.009n \le 24.009

4. Determine the maximum integer value for $n$.

Since the sample size nn must be an integer, the maximum possible value is 24.

Answer

n=24n = 24

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