'Famous Amas' makes two types of cookies, almond cookie and chocolate chip cookie. The mass of an almond cookie and a chocolate chip cookie, in grams, are independent random variables with the distribution N(32,3.02)N(32, 3.0^2) and N(28,1.82)N(28, 1.8^2) respectively. Almond cookies are sold at $6 per 100 g and chocolate chip cookies at $5 per 100 g. John buys 4 almond cookies and 4 chocolate chip cookies. Cindy buys 10 chocolate chip cookies.

  1. (i)

    Find the probability that the total mass of four randomly chosen chocolate chip cookies is between 100 g and 120 g.

  2. (ii)

    Find the probability that total mass of four randomly chosen chocolate chip cookies differs from twice the mass of a randomly chosen almond cookie by less than 50 g.

  3. (iii)

    Find the probability that John pays more than Cindy.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. Determine the distribution for the total mass of 4 randomly chosen chocolate chip cookies.

Let CC be the mass of a chocolate chip cookie, where C∼N(28,1.82)C \sim N(28, 1.8^2).
Let TC=C1+C2+C3+C4T_C = C_1 + C_2 + C_3 + C_4.
E(TC)=4×28=112\mathrm{E}(T_C) = 4 \times 28 = 112
Var(TC)=4×1.82=12.96\mathrm{Var}(T_C) = 4 \times 1.8^2 = 12.96
Hence, TC∼N(112,12.96)T_C \sim N(112, 12.96).

2. Evaluate the probability that the total mass is between 100 g and 120 g.

We require P(100<TC<120)\mathrm{P}(100 < T_C < 120).
Using a graphing calculator:
P(100<TC<120)≈0.986427\mathrm{P}(100 < T_C < 120) \approx 0.986427
≈0.986\approx 0.986 (to 3 s.f.)

Answer

0.9860.986

10(ii)

1. Define the random variable for the difference and calculate its expected value.

Let C1,C2,C3,C4C_1, C_2, C_3, C_4 be the masses of the 4 randomly chosen chocolate chip cookies and AA be the mass of the randomly chosen almond cookie.
Let W=(C1+C2+C3+C4)−2AW = (C_1 + C_2 + C_3 + C_4) - 2A.
E(W)=4E(C)−2E(A)\text{E}(W) = 4\text{E}(C) - 2\text{E}(A)
E(W)=4(28)−2(32)=48\text{E}(W) = 4(28) - 2(32) = 48

2. Calculate the variance of the combined random variable.

Var(W)=4Var(C)+(−2)2Var(A)\text{Var}(W) = 4\text{Var}(C) + (-2)^2\text{Var}(A)
Var(W)=4(1.82)+4(3.02)=12.96+36=48.96\text{Var}(W) = 4(1.8^2) + 4(3.0^2) = 12.96 + 36 = 48.96
Thus, W∼N(48,48.96)W \sim \text{N}(48, 48.96).

3. Formulate the probability expression and evaluate it.

The magnitude of the difference is less than 50 g, so we require P(∣W∣<50)\text{P}(|W| < 50).
P(−50<W<50)≈0.612487\text{P}(-50 < W < 50) \approx 0.612487
P(−50<W<50)=0.612 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(-50 < W < 50) = 0.612 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.6120.612

10(iii)

1. Define the cost variables for John ($J$) and Cindy ($Y$) by applying the price rates to the respective total masses.

Let WAW_A be the total mass of 4 almond cookies, WC1W_{C1} be the total mass of 4 chocolate chip cookies, and WC2W_{C2} be the total mass of 10 chocolate chip cookies.
From the given distributions:
WA∼N(4×32,4×3.02)  ⟹  WA∼N(128,36)W_A \sim N(4 \times 32, 4 \times 3.0^2) \implies W_A \sim N(128, 36)
WC1∼N(4×28,4×1.82)  ⟹  WC1∼N(112,12.96)W_{C1} \sim N(4 \times 28, 4 \times 1.8^2) \implies W_{C1} \sim N(112, 12.96)
WC2∼N(10×28,10×1.82)  ⟹  WC2∼N(280,32.4)W_{C2} \sim N(10 \times 28, 10 \times 1.8^2) \implies W_{C2} \sim N(280, 32.4)

The prices per gram are $0.06\char36{}0.06 for almond and $0.05\char36{}0.05 for chocolate chip.
Cost for John: J=0.06WA+0.05WC1J = 0.06 W_A + 0.05 W_{C1}
Cost for Cindy: Y=0.05WC2Y = 0.05 W_{C2}

2. Calculate the expected value of the difference $J - Y$.

E(J)=0.06(128)+0.05(112)=7.68+5.60=13.28\mathrm{E}(J) = 0.06(128) + 0.05(112) = 7.68 + 5.60 = 13.28
E(Y)=0.05(280)=14\mathrm{E}(Y) = 0.05(280) = 14
E(J−Y)=13.28−14=−0.72\mathrm{E}(J - Y) = 13.28 - 14 = -0.72

3. Calculate the variance of the difference $J - Y$.

Var(J)=0.062(36)+0.052(12.96)=0.1296+0.0324=0.162\mathrm{Var}(J) = 0.06^2(36) + 0.05^2(12.96) = 0.1296 + 0.0324 = 0.162
Var(Y)=0.052(32.4)=0.081\mathrm{Var}(Y) = 0.05^2(32.4) = 0.081

Since JJ and YY are independent:
Var(J−Y)=Var(J)+Var(Y)\mathrm{Var}(J - Y) = \mathrm{Var}(J) + \mathrm{Var}(Y)
Var(J−Y)=0.162+0.081=0.243\mathrm{Var}(J - Y) = 0.162 + 0.081 = 0.243

4. State the distribution of $J - Y$ and compute the probability $P(J > Y)$.

Since linear combinations of independent normal variables are also normally distributed:
J−Y∼N(−0.72,0.243)J - Y \sim N(-0.72, 0.243)

We want to find P(J>Y)P(J > Y), which is equivalent to P(J−Y>0)P(J - Y > 0):
P(J−Y>0)=P(Z>0−(−0.72)0.243)P(J - Y > 0) = P\left(Z > \frac{0 - (-0.72)}{\sqrt{0.243}}\right)
P(J−Y>0)=P(Z>1.46059...)P(J - Y > 0) = P(Z > 1.46059...)
P(J−Y>0)≈0.072056P(J - Y > 0) \approx 0.072056
P(J>Y)=0.0721 (to 3 s.f.)P(J > Y) = 0.0721 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.07210.0721

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