The waiting time for a patient to see a doctor in a clinic is TT minutes. The waiting times of a randomly chosen sample of 120 patients are summarised by ∑(t−15)=123\sum (t-15) = 123, and ∑(t−15)2=2504\sum (t-15)^2 = 2504.

  1. ((i))

    Find an unbiased estimate of the population mean and show that the unbiased estimate of the population variance is 19.983.

  2. ((ii))

    The management of the clinic claims that the mean waiting time is 15 minutes.

    Carry out a test at the 5% significance level to determine whether the mean waiting time differs from 15 minutes.

  3. ((iii))

    In another sample, the waiting times of nn patients (where n≥50n \ge 50) were recorded and a one-tail test was conducted. Given that the sample mean was tˉ=15.5\bar{t} = 15.5 minutes and the null hypothesis was not rejected at the 6% level of significance, find the range of values of nn.

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Worked solution

10((i))

1. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean using the coded sum.

tˉ=15+∑(t−15)n\bar{t} = 15 + \frac{\sum (t-15)}{n}
tˉ=15+123120\bar{t} = 15 + \frac{123}{120}
tˉ=16.025\bar{t} = 16.025

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance using the coded sums and show it rounds to 19.983.

s2=1n−1(∑(t−15)2−(∑(t−15))2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum (t-15)^2 - \frac{\left(\sum (t-15)\right)^2}{n} \right)
s2=1119(2504−1232120)s^2 = \frac{1}{119} \left( 2504 - \frac{123^2}{120} \right)
s2=1119(2504−126.075)s^2 = \frac{1}{119} (2504 - 126.075)
s2=2377.925119=19.98256…s^2 = \frac{2377.925}{119} = 19.98256\dots
s2≈19.983 (shown)s^2 \approx 19.983 \text{ (shown)}

Answer

Unbiased estimate of the population mean is 16.02516.025.

10((ii))

1. State the null and alternative hypotheses

Let μ\mu be the population mean waiting time.
H0:μ=15H_0: \mu = 15
H1:μ≠15H_1: \mu \neq 15

2. Calculate the sample mean and the test statistic/p-value

From part (i),
tˉ=15+123120=16.025\bar{t} = 15 + \frac{123}{120} = 16.025
s2≈19.98256s^2 \approx 19.98256

Under H0H_0, since the sample size n=120n = 120 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem the test statistic is approximately:
Z=Tˉ−μs/n∼N(0,1)Z = \frac{\bar{T} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}} \sim \text{N}(0, 1)

z=16.025−1519.98256/120≈2.5118z = \frac{16.025 - 15}{\sqrt{19.98256 / 120}} \approx 2.5118

Using a graphing calculator, the pp-value for a two-tailed test is:
p-value=2×P(Z>2.5118)≈0.0120p\text{-value} = 2 \times \text{P}(Z > 2.5118) \approx 0.0120

3. State the decision and conclusion in context

Since p-value=0.0120<0.05p\text{-value} = 0.0120 < 0.05, we reject H0H_0.

There is sufficient evidence at the 5% level of significance to conclude that the mean waiting time differs from 15 minutes.

Answer

Reject H0H_0. There is sufficient evidence at the 5% significance level to conclude that the mean waiting time differs from 15 minutes.

10((iii))

1. State the hypotheses and the test statistic using the Central Limit Theorem.

Let μ\mu be the population mean waiting time.
H0:μ=15H_0: \mu = 15
Since the sample mean tˉ=15.5>15\bar{t} = 15.5 > 15, the appropriate one-tail test is H1:μ>15H_1: \mu > 15.
Using the unbiased estimate of the population variance from part (i), s2=19.983s^2 = 19.983.
Under H0H_0, since n≥50n \ge 50, the Central Limit Theorem applies and Tˉ∼N(15,19.983n)\bar{T} \sim \text{N}\left(15, \frac{19.983}{n}\right) approximately.
The test statistic is Z=Tˉ−1519.983/nZ = \frac{\bar{T} - 15}{\sqrt{19.983 / n}}.

2. Set up the inequality for the null hypothesis not being rejected.

For a 6%6\% level of significance in a right-tailed test, the critical zz-value is such that P(Z<z)=0.94P(Z < z) = 0.94. Using a graphing calculator, z0.06≈1.5548z_{0.06} \approx 1.5548.
Since H0H_0 is not rejected, the test statistic must be less than or equal to the critical value:
15.5−1519.983n≤1.5548\frac{15.5 - 15}{\sqrt{\frac{19.983}{n}}} \le 1.5548

3. Solve the inequality to find the range of values for $n$.

0.5n19.983≤1.5548\frac{0.5 \sqrt{n}}{\sqrt{19.983}} \le 1.5548
n≤1.5548×19.9830.5\sqrt{n} \le \frac{1.5548 \times \sqrt{19.983}}{0.5}
n≤13.900\sqrt{n} \le 13.900
n≤193.22n \le 193.22
Since nn must be an integer representing the number of patients, and the question specifies n≥50n \ge 50, the required range is:
50≤n≤19350 \le n \le 193

Answer

50≤n≤19350 \le n \le 193

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