A carton contains 17 good apples and 3 rotten apples. A fruit seller picks three apples in random from the carton and puts them into a smaller box for sale.

  1. (a)

    Find the probability that there is at least 1 rotten apple in the box for sale.

    Answer: ...

  2. (b)

    When Student A is asked to find the probability that the box contains two good apples and one rotten apple, he claims that the answer is 1720×1619×318\frac{17}{20} \times \frac{16}{19} \times \frac{3}{18}.

    Do you agree with the Student A's claim? Explain your answer.

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Worked solution

8(a)

1. Find the probability that all three apples picked are good

There are 1717 good apples out of 2020 apples in total.

Without replacement,
P(all 3 good)=1720×1619×1518.P(\text{all 3 good})=\frac{17}{20}\times\frac{16}{19}\times\frac{15}{18}.

2. Subtract from 1 to get the probability of at least one rotten apple

P(at least 1 rotten)=1−P(all 3 good)P(\text{at least 1 rotten})=1-P(\text{all 3 good})
=1−1720×1619×1518=1-\frac{17}{20}\times\frac{16}{19}\times\frac{15}{18}
=1−3457=1-\frac{34}{57}
=2357.=\frac{23}{57}.

Answer

97228\dfrac{97}{228}

8(b)

1. Identify what Student A's product represents

Student A's product

1720×1619×318\frac{17}{20}\times \frac{16}{19}\times \frac{3}{18}

represents picking a good apple first, another good apple second, and a rotten apple third, i.e. the order GGRGGR only.

2. Account for all possible orders of two good apples and one rotten apple

The box can contain two good apples and one rotten apple in 33 possible orders:

GGR, GRG, RGG.GGR,\ GRG,\ RGG.

Each order has the same probability, so

P(2 good and 1 rotten)=3×1720×1619×318=3495.P(\text{2 good and 1 rotten})=3\times \frac{17}{20}\times \frac{16}{19}\times \frac{3}{18}=\frac{34}{95}.

Answer

No. Student A has only found the probability for the order good, good, rotten. The required probability is

3×1720×1619×318=3495.3\times \frac{17}{20}\times \frac{16}{19}\times \frac{3}{18}=\frac{34}{95}.

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