Alice uses a computer program to simulate 80 tosses of a biased coin. Let YY be the random variable denoting the number of heads obtained and pp be the probability of obtaining a head. It is given that 80+E(Y)=6 Var(Y).80 + E(Y) = 6\,\mathrm{Var}(Y).

  1. ((i))

    Find the exact value of pp.

  2. ((ii))

    Find the probability of obtaining at least 30 heads, given that the first 5 tosses are heads.

  3. ((iii))

    Alice executes the program 50 times. Find the probability that the mean number of heads, Yˉ\bar{Y}, is less than 25.

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Worked solution

(b)((i))

1. Express the expected value and variance of $Y$ in terms of $p$.

Since YY represents the number of heads in 80 independent coin tosses, YY follows a binomial distribution, Y∼B(80,p)Y \sim \mathrm{B}(80, p).
We then have:
E(Y)=np=80p\mathrm{E}(Y) = np = 80p
Var(Y)=np(1−p)=80p(1−p)\mathrm{Var}(Y) = np(1-p) = 80p(1-p)

2. Substitute the expressions into the given equation to form a quadratic equation in $p$.

Given that 80+E(Y)=6 Var(Y)80 + \mathrm{E}(Y) = 6\,\mathrm{Var}(Y):
80+80p=6(80p(1−p))80 + 80p = 6(80p(1-p))
Dividing the entire equation by 80:
1+p=6p(1−p)1 + p = 6p(1-p)
1+p=6p−6p21 + p = 6p - 6p^2
6p2−5p+1=06p^2 - 5p + 1 = 0

3. Solve for $p$ and reject the invalid value.

Factorising the quadratic equation:
(3p−1)(2p−1)=0(3p - 1)(2p - 1) = 0
p=13orp=12p = \frac{1}{3} \quad \text{or} \quad p = \frac{1}{2}
Since the question states that the coin is biased, p≠0.5p \neq 0.5. Therefore, we reject p=12p = \frac{1}{2}.
p=13p = \frac{1}{3}

Answer

p=13p = \frac{1}{3}

(b)((ii))

1. Identify the probability of obtaining a head, $p$, and set up the distribution for the remaining tosses.

From part (i), solving the given relation 80+80p=6(80p(1−p))80 + 80p = 6(80p(1-p)) yields p=13p = \frac{1}{3} or p=12p = \frac{1}{2}.
Since the question states it is a biased coin, p≠12p \neq \frac{1}{2}, so p=13p = \frac{1}{3}.

Let WW be the random variable denoting the number of heads obtained in the remaining 75 tosses.
Since the coin tosses are independent, W∼B(75,13)W \sim \mathrm{B}\left(75, \frac{1}{3}\right).

2. Formulate the required conditional probability in terms of $W$.

We require the probability of obtaining at least 30 heads in total, given that the first 5 tosses are heads.
Because the trials are independent, the outcome of the first 5 tosses does not affect the remaining 75 tosses.
To reach a total of at least 30 heads, we need at least 30−5=2530 - 5 = 25 heads in the remaining 75 tosses.

Required probability=P(W≥25)\text{Required probability} = \mathrm{P}(W \ge 25)

3. Evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator.

P(W≥25)=1−P(W≤24)\mathrm{P}(W \ge 25) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(W \le 24)
Using a graphing calculator,
P(W≥25)=1−0.44855\mathrm{P}(W \ge 25) = 1 - 0.44855
P(W≥25)≈0.55145\mathrm{P}(W \ge 25) \approx 0.55145

Required probability=0.551 (to 3 s.f.)\text{Required probability} = 0.551 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.5510.551

(b)((iii))

1. Deduce the probability $p$ from part (i) and find the population mean and variance.

From part (i), using Y∼B(80,p)Y \sim \text{B}(80, p):
80+E(Y)=6Var(Y)80 + E(Y) = 6\text{Var}(Y)
80+80p=6(80p(1−p))80 + 80p = 6(80p(1-p))
6p2−5p+1=06p^2 - 5p + 1 = 0
(3p−1)(2p−1)=0(3p-1)(2p-1) = 0
Since the coin is biased, p≠12p \neq \frac{1}{2}, so p=13p = \frac{1}{3}.
The population mean and variance are:
E(Y)=80(13)=803E(Y) = 80\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) = \frac{80}{3}
Var(Y)=80(13)(23)=1609\text{Var}(Y) = 80\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)\left(\frac{2}{3}\right) = \frac{160}{9}

2. Apply the Central Limit Theorem to find the distribution of the sample mean.

Since the sample size n=50n = 50 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean Yˉ\bar{Y} is approximately normally distributed:
Yˉ∼N(μ,σ2n)\bar{Y} \sim \text{N}\left(\mu, \frac{\sigma^2}{n}\right)
Yˉ∼N(803,160/950)\bar{Y} \sim \text{N}\left(\frac{80}{3}, \frac{160/9}{50}\right)
Yˉ∼N(803,1645)\bar{Y} \sim \text{N}\left(\frac{80}{3}, \frac{16}{45}\right)

3. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is less than 25.

Using a graphing calculator:
P(Yˉ<25)≈0.0025946\text{P}(\bar{Y} < 25) \approx 0.0025946
P(Yˉ<25)=0.00259 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(\bar{Y} < 25) = 0.00259 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.002590.00259 (to 3 s.f.)

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