Alice uses a computer program to simulate 80 tosses of a biased coin. Let be the random variable denoting the number of heads obtained and be the probability of obtaining a head. It is given that
- ((i))
Find the exact value of .
- ((ii))
Find the probability of obtaining at least 30 heads, given that the first 5 tosses are heads.
- ((iii))
Alice executes the program 50 times. Find the probability that the mean number of heads, , is less than 25.
It won't just hand you the answer — it asks where you're stuck.How the checker works
Worked solution
(b)((i))
1. Express the expected value and variance of $Y$ in terms of $p$.
Since represents the number of heads in 80 independent coin tosses, follows a binomial distribution, .
We then have:
2. Substitute the expressions into the given equation to form a quadratic equation in $p$.
Given that :
Dividing the entire equation by 80:
3. Solve for $p$ and reject the invalid value.
Factorising the quadratic equation:
Since the question states that the coin is biased, . Therefore, we reject .
(b)((ii))
1. Identify the probability of obtaining a head, $p$, and set up the distribution for the remaining tosses.
From part (i), solving the given relation yields or .
Since the question states it is a biased coin, , so .
Let be the random variable denoting the number of heads obtained in the remaining 75 tosses.
Since the coin tosses are independent, .
2. Formulate the required conditional probability in terms of $W$.
We require the probability of obtaining at least 30 heads in total, given that the first 5 tosses are heads.
Because the trials are independent, the outcome of the first 5 tosses does not affect the remaining 75 tosses.
To reach a total of at least 30 heads, we need at least heads in the remaining 75 tosses.
3. Evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator.
Using a graphing calculator,
(b)((iii))
1. Deduce the probability $p$ from part (i) and find the population mean and variance.
From part (i), using :
Since the coin is biased, , so .
The population mean and variance are:
2. Apply the Central Limit Theorem to find the distribution of the sample mean.
Since the sample size is large (), by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean is approximately normally distributed:
3. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is less than 25.
Using a graphing calculator:
(to 3 s.f.)
AI analysis — may contain mistakes.
Worked this one out on paper? Snap your steps and Gigle's AI math checker will circle the step where it went wrong.
More questions on this topic
- 1In a standardized assessment test conducted annually, it is found that, on average, 1 in 5 students who sit for the test…
- 2A fruit seller sources his oranges from a supplier with a large plantation where 1% of the oranges are rotten. The suppl…
- 3In each large batch of SIM cards, 15% of the cards are defective. From each batch, a random sample of 10 cards is drawn…
- 4Packets of a particular brand of potato chips are delivered to a supermarket in boxes of 60. On average, 1.8 packets in…
- 5The probability of obtaining a head when a particular coin is tossed is . A fair cubical die has the number '1' on on…