In each large batch of SIM cards, 15% of the cards are defective. From each batch, a random sample of 10 cards is drawn for inspection.
- (i)
State the distribution of the number of defective SIM cards in the sample. Write down an assumption in order for the distribution stated to be valid.
- (ii)
A batch is labeled as 'good' if the sample drawn has less than 2 defective SIM cards. If 33 batches are produced daily, find using a suitable approximation, the probability that in a day, more than 80% produced are 'good' batches.
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Worked solution
9(i)
1. State the distribution with its parameters.
Let be the number of defective SIM cards in a sample of 10.
Since there is a fixed sample size of and a constant probability of of finding a defective card, the distribution is Binomial.
2. State the assumption for the binomial distribution to be a valid model.
The assumption is that whether any one SIM card is defective is independent of whether the other SIM cards in the sample are defective.
(Alternatively, the probability of any SIM card being defective remains constant at .)
Distribution:
Assumption: Whether a SIM card is defective is independent of the other SIM cards in the sample.
9(ii)
1. Find the probability of a single batch being 'good'.
Let be the number of defective SIM cards in a sample of 10.
A batch is 'good' if , which means .
2. Define the distribution for the number of good batches and state the Normal approximation.
Let be the number of good batches produced out of 33.
Since is sufficiently large such that and , can be approximated by a Normal distribution.
Thus, approximately.
3. Determine the required number of good batches based on the 'more than 80%' condition.
We require more than 80% of the 33 daily batches to be good.
Thus, we need .
Since is a discrete count of batches, this strictly translates to .
4. Apply the continuity correction and calculate the probability using the Normal distribution.
Applying a continuity correction to translate the discrete threshold to our continuous Normal distribution:
Using the Normal distribution on a graphing calculator:
(to 3 s.f.)
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