Packets of a particular brand of potato chips are delivered to a supermarket in boxes of 60. On average, 1.8 packets in a box are underweight. The number of underweight packets from a randomly chosen box is the random variable XX. Assume that XX has a binomial distribution.

  1. (i)

    Use a suitable approximation to find the probability that two randomly chosen boxes of potato chips contain more than 6 packets of underweight potato chips. State the parameter(s) of the distribution that you use.

  2. (ii)

    A batch of 50 boxes of potato chips is delivered to the supermarket.

    Use a suitable approximation to find the probability that the mean number of underweight packets per box is more than 2.

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Worked solution

6(i)

1. Determine the exact distribution of the number of underweight packets in two boxes.

Let XX be the number of underweight packets in a box of 60. We are given X∼B(60,p)X \sim \text{B}(60, p).
Since the mean is 1.81.8, we have 60p=1.8  ⟹  p=0.0360p = 1.8 \implies p = 0.03.
Let YY be the number of underweight packets in two randomly chosen boxes (n=120n = 120).
Assuming the boxes are independent, the exact distribution is Y∼B(120,0.03)Y \sim \text{B}(120, 0.03).

2. State the suitable approximation and its parameter.

For Y∼B(120,0.03)Y \sim \text{B}(120, 0.03), since n=120n = 120 is large (n≥50n \ge 50) and p=0.03p = 0.03 is small such that np=3.6<5np = 3.6 < 5, the Poisson approximation is a mathematically suitable approximation.
Thus, Y≈Po(3.6)Y \approx \text{Po}(3.6).
The parameter of the distribution used is the mean λ=3.6\lambda = 3.6.

3. Calculate the required probability using the approximation.

We want to find the probability that there are more than 6 underweight packets, which is P(Y>6)P(Y > 6).
P(Y>6)=1−P(Y≤6)P(Y > 6) = 1 - P(Y \le 6)
Using a graphing calculator for the Poisson distribution with λ=3.6\lambda = 3.6:
P(Y≤6)≈0.92673P(Y \le 6) \approx 0.92673
P(Y>6)=1−0.92673=0.07327≈0.0733 (to 3 s.f.)P(Y > 6) = 1 - 0.92673 = 0.07327 \approx 0.0733 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

Parameter: λ=3.6\lambda = 3.6
Probability =0.0733= 0.0733

6(ii)

1. Find the variance of the number of underweight packets in a box, $X$.

Since E(X)=1.8E(X) = 1.8 and X∼B(60,p)X \sim \text{B}(60, p),
60p=1.8  ⟹  p=0.0360p = 1.8 \implies p = 0.03
Var(X)=np(1−p)=1.8(1−0.03)=1.746\text{Var}(X) = np(1-p) = 1.8(1 - 0.03) = 1.746

2. State the approximate distribution of the sample mean $\bar{X}$ using the Central Limit Theorem.

Let Xˉ\bar{X} be the sample mean number of underweight packets per box for 50 boxes.
Since the sample size n=50n = 50 is large (n≥30n \ge 30), by the Central Limit Theorem,
Xˉ∼N(1.8,1.74650)\bar{X} \sim \text{N}\left(1.8, \frac{1.746}{50}\right) approximately.
Xˉ∼N(1.8,0.03492)\bar{X} \sim \text{N}(1.8, 0.03492)

3. Calculate the required probability.

P(Xˉ>2)≈0.14225≈0.142 (to 3 s.f.)P(\bar{X} > 2) \approx 0.14225 \approx 0.142 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.1420.142

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