Two events AA and BB are such that P(A)=pP(A)=p and P(B)=54pP(B)=\frac{5}{4}p. It is given that P(A∪B)=P(A∣B)=0.6P(A\cup B)=P(A\mid B)=0.6.

  1. (a)

    Find the value of pp.

  2. (b)

    Explain whether the events A′A' and BB are independent.

  3. The events CC and DD are such that P(C)=0.55P(C)=0.55, P(D)=0.6P(D)=0.6 and P(A∩C)=P(A∩D)=P(C∩D)=qP(A\cap C)=P(A\cap D)=P(C\cap D)=q.

    1. (c)

      Find the value of qq that gives the minimum value of P(A∪C∪D)P(A\cup C\cup D) and state the minimum value of P(A∪C∪D)P(A\cup C\cup D).

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Worked solution

6(a)

1. Express $P(A \cap B)$ in terms of $p$ using the conditional probability formula.

P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A \mid B)P(B)
P(A∩B)=0.6(54p)=0.75pP(A \cap B) = 0.6 \left(\frac{5}{4}p\right) = 0.75p

2. Form an equation in terms of $p$ using the addition rule.

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)
0.6=p+1.25p−0.75p0.6 = p + 1.25p - 0.75p

3. Solve the linear equation to find $p$.

0.6=1.5p0.6 = 1.5p
p=0.61.5p = \frac{0.6}{1.5}
p=0.4p = 0.4

Answer

p=0.4p = 0.4

6(b)

1. Use the value of $p$ from part (a) to find $P(A)$, $P(B)$, and $P(A \cap B)$.

From part (a), p=0.4p = 0.4.
P(A)=0.4P(A) = 0.4
P(B)=54(0.4)=0.5P(B) = \frac{5}{4}(0.4) = 0.5
P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B)=0.6×0.5=0.3P(A \cap B) = P(A \mid B)P(B) = 0.6 \times 0.5 = 0.3

2. Calculate $P(A' \cap B)$ and $P(A')P(B)$ to test for independence.

P(A′∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.5−0.3=0.2P(A' \cap B) = P(B) - P(A \cap B) = 0.5 - 0.3 = 0.2
P(A′)P(B)=(1−P(A))P(B)=(1−0.4)(0.5)=0.6×0.5=0.3P(A')P(B) = (1 - P(A))P(B) = (1 - 0.4)(0.5) = 0.6 \times 0.5 = 0.3

Since P(A′∩B)≠P(A′)P(B)P(A' \cap B) \neq P(A')P(B), the events A′A' and BB are not independent.

Answer

Since P(A′∩B)≠P(A′)P(B)P(A' \cap B) \neq P(A')P(B), the events A′A' and BB are not independent.

6[2](c)

1. Establish the maximum possible value for $q$ using the probability of $A$ found in part (a).

From part (a), we calculated P(A)=0.4P(A) = 0.4.
The intersection of two events is a subset of each individual event, so its probability cannot exceed the probability of either event. Therefore, P(A∩C)≤P(A)P(A \cap C) \le P(A).
Given P(A∩C)=qP(A \cap C) = q, we have:
q≤0.4q \le 0.4

2. Express the probability of the union of $C$ and $D$ in terms of $q$.

Using the addition rule of probability for events CC and DD:
P(C∪D)=P(C)+P(D)−P(C∩D)P(C \cup D) = P(C) + P(D) - P(C \cap D)
Substitute the given values P(C)=0.55P(C) = 0.55, P(D)=0.6P(D) = 0.6, and P(C∩D)=qP(C \cap D) = q:
P(C∪D)=0.55+0.6−q=1.15−qP(C \cup D) = 0.55 + 0.6 - q = 1.15 - q

3. Relate $P(A \cup C \cup D)$ to $P(C \cup D)$ to find the minimum value.

Since the union of CC and DD is a subset of the union of AA, CC, and DD (i.e., C∪D⊆A∪C∪DC \cup D \subseteq A \cup C \cup D), its probability provides a lower bound:
P(A∪C∪D)≥P(C∪D)P(A \cup C \cup D) \ge P(C \cup D)
P(A∪C∪D)≥1.15−qP(A \cup C \cup D) \ge 1.15 - q
To find the minimum possible value for P(A∪C∪D)P(A \cup C \cup D), we must subtract the largest possible value of qq. Substituting the maximum value q=0.4q = 0.4:
Minimum P(A∪C∪D)=1.15−0.4=0.75\text{Minimum } P(A \cup C \cup D) = 1.15 - 0.4 = 0.75
This minimum is achieved when q=0.4q = 0.4.

Answer

q=0.4q = 0.4
Minimum P(A∪C∪D)=0.75P(A \cup C \cup D) = 0.75

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