[For this question, you should state clearly the values of the parameters of any normal distribution you use.] After dinner every day, Benedict gives himself some time for relaxation before starting his revision at 8 pm. He finishes his dinner at DD minutes past 7 pm, where DD follows the distribution N(10,22)\text{N}(10, 2^2). After dinner, he usually spends MM minutes on social media, which follows the distribution N(k,122)\text{N}(k, 12^2).

  1. (i)

    Given that Benedict starts his revision late 12.5% of the time if he spends time on social media after his dinner, show that k=36.0k = 36.0.

  2. (ii)

    For the rest of this question, assume that k=36k = 36.

    Sketch the distribution of the time that Benedict spends on dinner after 7 pm and on social media till 8 pm.

  3. (iii)

    On some occasions after dinner, when he does not spend time on social media, he plays online games. The time he takes to finish the games, GG minutes, follows the distribution N(45,102)\text{N}(45, 10^2).

    On a particular day after dinner, Benedict spent time on social media. On another day, he played online games. Find the probability that the time he starts revision on the two days differ by at most 5 minutes.

  4. (iv)

    On average, Benedict plays online games on 20% of the evenings after dinner.

    On a particular evening, Benedict started his revision late. Find the probability that he played online games that evening.

  5. (v)

    State a necessary assumption for your calculations in (ii), (iii) and (iv) to be valid.

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Worked solution

11(i)

1. Define the distribution of the total time taken before starting revision.

Let TT be the total time in minutes past 7 pm before Benedict starts his revision. Then T=D+MT = D + M.
Assuming DD and MM are independent:
E(T)=E(D)+E(M)=10+k\text{E}(T) = \text{E}(D) + \text{E}(M) = 10 + k
Var(T)=Var(D)+Var(M)=22+122=148\text{Var}(T) = \text{Var}(D) + \text{Var}(M) = 2^2 + 12^2 = 148
T∼N(10+k,148)T \sim \text{N}(10 + k, 148)

2. Set up the probability equation for starting revision late.

Benedict plans to start his revision at 8 pm, which is 60 minutes past 7 pm. He starts late if T>60T > 60.
Given that he is late 12.5% of the time:
P(T>60)=0.125\text{P}(T > 60) = 0.125
P(T≤60)=1−0.125=0.875\text{P}(T \le 60) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875

3. Standardise the normal variable and solve for $k$.

Standardising the normal variable TT to the standard normal variable ZZ:
P(Z≤60−(10+k)148)=0.875\text{P}\left(Z \le \frac{60 - (10+k)}{\sqrt{148}}\right) = 0.875
Using the inverse normal function (from GC or tables), the zz-value for an area of 0.875 is approximately 1.15031.1503.
50−k148≈1.1503\frac{50 - k}{\sqrt{148}} \approx 1.1503
50−k≈1.1503×14850 - k \approx 1.1503 \times \sqrt{148}
50−k≈13.99450 - k \approx 13.994
k≈50−13.994k \approx 50 - 13.994
k≈36.006k \approx 36.006
k=36.0 (shown to 1 d.p.)k = 36.0 \text{ (shown to 1 d.p.)}

Answer

k=36.0k = 36.0 (shown)

11(ii)

1. Find the distribution of the total time spent on dinner and social media.

Let TT be the total time spent, so T=D+MT = D + M.
Assuming DD and MM are independent:
E(T)=E(D)+E(M)=10+36=46\text{E}(T) = \text{E}(D) + \text{E}(M) = 10 + 36 = 46
Var(T)=Var(D)+Var(M)=22+122=148\text{Var}(T) = \text{Var}(D) + \text{Var}(M) = 2^2 + 12^2 = 148
So, T∼N(46,148)T \sim \text{N}(46, 148).

2. Sketch the normal distribution curve for $T$.

Draw a normal distribution curve with the following features:

  • A horizontal axis labelled tt (time in minutes).
  • A bell-shaped, symmetrical curve entirely above the horizontal axis.
  • The peak (maximum point) of the curve is aligned with t=46t = 46.
  • The spread can be indicated by points of inflexion at μ±σ\mu \pm \sigma, i.e., 46±14846 \pm \sqrt{148} (33.833.8 and 58.258.2), though marking the central mean of 4646 is the primary requirement.
  • The tails of the curve asymptotically approach the horizontal axis.
Answer

A sketch of a bell-shaped curve above a horizontal axis (labelled tt or D+MD+M) with the peak centred symmetrically at 4646. The curve should asymptotically approach the horizontal axis on both sides.

11(iii)

1. Define the start times for the two days and find the mean of their difference.

Let T1=D1+MT_1 = D_1 + M be the revision start time on the social media day, and T2=D2+GT_2 = D_2 + G be the revision start time on the gaming day.
We are looking for the difference T1−T2=D1+M−D2−GT_1 - T_2 = D_1 + M - D_2 - G.
E(T1−T2)=E(D1)+E(M)−E(D2)−E(G)\text{E}(T_1 - T_2) = \text{E}(D_1) + \text{E}(M) - \text{E}(D_2) - \text{E}(G)
E(T1−T2)=10+36−10−45=−9\text{E}(T_1 - T_2) = 10 + 36 - 10 - 45 = -9

2. Find the variance of the difference and state its normal distribution.

Since the events occur on different days, D1D_1 and D2D_2 are independent instances. We sum the individual variances:
Var(T1−T2)=Var(D1)+Var(M)+Var(D2)+Var(G)\text{Var}(T_1 - T_2) = \text{Var}(D_1) + \text{Var}(M) + \text{Var}(D_2) + \text{Var}(G)
Var(T1−T2)=22+122+22+102=4+144+4+100=252\text{Var}(T_1 - T_2) = 2^2 + 12^2 + 2^2 + 10^2 = 4 + 144 + 4 + 100 = 252
Thus, the difference follows a normal distribution: T1−T2∼N(−9,252)T_1 - T_2 \sim \text{N}(-9, 252).

3. Calculate the probability that the difference is at most 5 minutes.

We require P(∣T1−T2∣≤5)\text{P}(|T_1 - T_2| \le 5), which is equivalent to P(−5≤T1−T2≤5)\text{P}(-5 \le T_1 - T_2 \le 5).
Using a graphing calculator with μ=−9\mu = -9 and σ=252\sigma = \sqrt{252}:
P(−5≤T1−T2≤5)≈0.21160\text{P}(-5 \le T_1 - T_2 \le 5) \approx 0.21160
≈0.212 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.212 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.2120.212

11(iv)

1. Find the distribution of the total time taken for dinner and online games before revision.

Let TO=D+GT_O = D + G be the total time spent from 7 pm to the start of revision if he plays online games.
Assuming DD and GG are independent,
E(TO)=E(D)+E(G)=10+45=55\text{E}(T_O) = \text{E}(D) + \text{E}(G) = 10 + 45 = 55
Var(TO)=Var(D)+Var(G)=22+102=104\text{Var}(T_O) = \text{Var}(D) + \text{Var}(G) = 2^2 + 10^2 = 104
TO∼N(55,104)T_O \sim \text{N}(55, 104)

2. Calculate the conditional probability that he is late given he played online games.

He is late if the total time exceeds 60 minutes (from 7 pm to 8 pm).
P(Late∣Online games)=P(TO>60)P(\text{Late} \mid \text{Online games}) = P(T_O > 60)
Using the graphing calculator:
P(TO>60)≈0.311999P(T_O > 60) \approx 0.311999

3. Determine the total probability that Benedict starts his revision late.

Let SS be the event he uses social media and OO be the event he plays online games.
Since he only does one or the other, P(O)=0.2P(O) = 0.2 means P(S)=1−0.2=0.8P(S) = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8.
From part (i), we know P(Late∣S)=0.125P(\text{Late} \mid S) = 0.125.
P(Late)=P(S)P(Late∣S)+P(O)P(Late∣O)P(\text{Late}) = P(S)P(\text{Late} \mid S) + P(O)P(\text{Late} \mid O)
P(Late)=0.8(0.125)+0.2(0.311999)P(\text{Late}) = 0.8(0.125) + 0.2(0.311999)
P(Late)=0.1+0.062400=0.162400P(\text{Late}) = 0.1 + 0.062400 = 0.162400

4. Find the conditional probability that he played online games given he started late.

Using Bayes' Theorem:
P(O∣Late)=P(O∩Late)P(Late)P(O \mid \text{Late}) = \frac{P(O \cap \text{Late})}{P(\text{Late})}
P(O∣Late)=0.0624000.162400P(O \mid \text{Late}) = \frac{0.062400}{0.162400}
P(O∣Late)≈0.38423P(O \mid \text{Late}) \approx 0.38423
P(O∣Late)≈0.384 (3 s.f.)P(O \mid \text{Late}) \approx 0.384 \text{ (3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.3840.384

11(v)

1. State the necessary assumption of independence between the variables.

To calculate the variance of the combined times (D+MD + M and D+GD + G) by simply adding their individual variances, the underlying random variables must be independent of each other.

Answer

The time Benedict spends on dinner is independent of the time he spends on social media and the time he plays online games.

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