For events A and B, it is given that P(A∪B′)=23P(A \cup B') = \frac{2}{3} and P(A)=14P(A) = \frac{1}{4}.

  1. (i)

    Find P(A∣A∪B)P(A \mid A \cup B).

  2. (ii)

    Given that events A and B are independent, find P(B)P(B).

  3. (iii)

    Given instead that events A and B are not independent, find the range of possible values of P(B)P(B).

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Worked solution

6(i)

1. Express the required conditional probability using the standard formula and simplify the numerator.

P(A∣A∪B)=P(A∩(A∪B))P(A∪B)P(A \mid A \cup B) = \frac{P(A \cap (A \cup B))}{P(A \cup B)}\nSince event AA is a subset of A∪BA \cup B, their intersection is simply AA:\nP(A∣A∪B)=P(A)P(A∪B)P(A \mid A \cup B) = \frac{P(A)}{P(A \cup B)}

2. Determine $P(A \cup B)$ using the given probabilities and set complements.

Using De Morgan's laws, the complement of A∪B′A \cup B' is A′∩BA' \cap B. Therefore:\nP(A′∩B)=1−P(A∪B′)=1−23=13P(A' \cap B) = 1 - P(A \cup B') = 1 - \frac{2}{3} = \frac{1}{3}\nSince AA and A′∩BA' \cap B are mutually exclusive and their union forms A∪BA \cup B:\nP(A∪B)=P(A)+P(A′∩B)=14+13=712P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(A' \cap B) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{3} = \frac{7}{12}

3. Evaluate the final conditional probability.

P(A∣A∪B)=1/47/12=14×127=37P(A \mid A \cup B) = \frac{1/4}{7/12} = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{12}{7} = \frac{3}{7}

Answer

37\frac{3}{7}

6(ii)

1. Apply the addition rule and the definition of independent events to express $P(A \cup B')$ in terms of $P(A)$ and $P(B')$.

By the addition rule of probability:
P(A∪B′)=P(A)+P(B′)−P(A∩B′)P(A \cup B') = P(A) + P(B') - P(A \cap B')
Since AA and BB are independent, AA and B′B' are also independent. Therefore, P(A∩B′)=P(A)P(B′)P(A \cap B') = P(A)P(B').
P(A∪B′)=P(A)+P(B′)−P(A)P(B′)P(A \cup B') = P(A) + P(B') - P(A)P(B')

2. Substitute the given values and solve for $P(B')$.

23=14+P(B′)−14P(B′)\frac{2}{3} = \frac{1}{4} + P(B') - \frac{1}{4}P(B')
23−14=34P(B′)\frac{2}{3} - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}P(B')
512=34P(B′)\frac{5}{12} = \frac{3}{4}P(B')
P(B′)=512×43=59P(B') = \frac{5}{12} \times \frac{4}{3} = \frac{5}{9}

3. Find $P(B)$ using the complement rule.

P(B)=1−P(B′)P(B) = 1 - P(B')
P(B)=1−59=49P(B) = 1 - \frac{5}{9} = \frac{4}{9}

Answer

49\frac{4}{9}

6(iii)

1. Express $P(A \cup B')$ in terms of $P(B)$ and $P(A \cap B)$.

Using the addition rule for probabilities:
P(A∪B′)=P(A)+P(B′)−P(A∩B′)P(A \cup B') = P(A) + P(B') - P(A \cap B')
Since the part of AA not in BB is P(A∩B′)=P(A)−P(A∩B)P(A \cap B') = P(A) - P(A \cap B), this simplifies to:
P(A∪B′)=P(A)+P(B′)−(P(A)−P(A∩B))P(A \cup B') = P(A) + P(B') - (P(A) - P(A \cap B))
P(A∪B′)=P(B′)+P(A∩B)P(A \cup B') = P(B') + P(A \cap B)
Substituting the given values and P(B′)=1−P(B)P(B') = 1 - P(B):
23=1−P(B)+P(A∩B)\frac{2}{3} = 1 - P(B) + P(A \cap B)
P(B)=13+P(A∩B)P(B) = \frac{1}{3} + P(A \cap B)

2. Determine the basic range of $P(B)$ using the minimum and maximum possible values of $P(A \cap B)$.

The probability of an intersection must satisfy 0⩽P(A∩B)⩽P(A)0 \leqslant P(A \cap B) \leqslant P(A).
Since P(A)=14P(A) = \frac{1}{4}, we have:
0⩽P(A∩B)⩽140 \leqslant P(A \cap B) \leqslant \frac{1}{4}
Substitute P(A∩B)=P(B)−13P(A \cap B) = P(B) - \frac{1}{3} into the inequality:
0⩽P(B)−13⩽140 \leqslant P(B) - \frac{1}{3} \leqslant \frac{1}{4}
13⩽P(B)⩽13+14\frac{1}{3} \leqslant P(B) \leqslant \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{4}
13⩽P(B)⩽712\frac{1}{3} \leqslant P(B) \leqslant \frac{7}{12}

3. Exclude the value of $P(B)$ that would make $A$ and $B$ independent.

If events AA and BB were independent, we would have P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)=14P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) = \frac{1}{4}P(B).
Substituting this into the equation from Step 1 (or retrieving the answer calculated in part ii):
P(B)=13+14P(B)P(B) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{4}P(B)
34P(B)=13  ⟹  P(B)=49\frac{3}{4}P(B) = \frac{1}{3} \implies P(B) = \frac{4}{9}
Since we are given that AA and BB are not independent, P(B)≠49P(B) \neq \frac{4}{9}.
Combining this with the continuous bounds from Step 2, the range of possible values is:
13⩽P(B)<49or49<P(B)⩽712\frac{1}{3} \leqslant P(B) < \frac{4}{9} \quad \text{or} \quad \frac{4}{9} < P(B) \leqslant \frac{7}{12}

Answer

13⩽P(B)<49 or 49<P(B)⩽712\frac{1}{3} \leqslant P(B) < \frac{4}{9} \text{ or } \frac{4}{9} < P(B) \leqslant \frac{7}{12}

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