For events AA and BB, it is given that P(A)=0.38\mathrm{P}(A) = 0.38, P(A∣B)=0.5\mathrm{P}(A \mid B) = 0.5 and P(A∪B)=0.52\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) = 0.52.

  1. (i)

    Find P(B)\mathrm{P}(B).

  2. (ii)

    For a third event CC, it is given that P(C)=0.6\mathrm{P}(C) = 0.6 and P((A′∪B′)∣C)=0.85\mathrm{P}((A' \cup B') \mid C) = 0.85.
    Find P(A∩B∩C)\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C).

  3. (iii)

    State, with a reason, whether the events AA and CC are mutually exclusive.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. Express the probability of the intersection, $\mathrm{P}(A \cap B)$, in terms of $\mathrm{P}(B)$.

Using the conditional probability formula P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B)\mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = \mathrm{P}(A \mid B)\mathrm{P}(B):
P(A∩B)=0.5P(B)\mathrm{P}(A \cap B) = 0.5\mathrm{P}(B)

2. Set up an equation for $\mathrm{P}(B)$ using the addition rule.

Using the addition rule P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)\mathrm{P}(A \cup B) = \mathrm{P}(A) + \mathrm{P}(B) - \mathrm{P}(A \cap B):
0.52=0.38+P(B)−0.5P(B)0.52 = 0.38 + \mathrm{P}(B) - 0.5\mathrm{P}(B)
0.52=0.38+0.5P(B)0.52 = 0.38 + 0.5\mathrm{P}(B)

3. Solve the linear equation for $\mathrm{P}(B)$.

0.5P(B)=0.52−0.380.5\mathrm{P}(B) = 0.52 - 0.38
0.5P(B)=0.140.5\mathrm{P}(B) = 0.14
P(B)=0.140.5=0.28\mathrm{P}(B) = \frac{0.14}{0.5} = 0.28

Answer

0.28

10(ii)

1. Apply De Morgan's laws to simplify the event given in the conditional probability.

A′∪B′=(A∩B)′A' \cup B' = (A \cap B)'
P((A∩B)′∣C)=0.85\mathrm{P}((A \cap B)' \mid C) = 0.85

2. Use the complement rule for conditional probabilities to find $\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \mid C)$.

P(A∩B∣C)=1−P((A∩B)′∣C)\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \mid C) = 1 - \mathrm{P}((A \cap B)' \mid C)
P(A∩B∣C)=1−0.85=0.15\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \mid C) = 1 - 0.85 = 0.15

3. Apply the conditional probability formula to find the intersection of all three events.

P(A∩B∩C)=P(A∩B∣C)×P(C)\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = \mathrm{P}(A \cap B \mid C) \times \mathrm{P}(C)
P(A∩B∩C)=0.15×0.6=0.09\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = 0.15 \times 0.6 = 0.09

Answer

0.090.09

10(iii)

1. Establish the condition for mutually exclusive events and its implication on the three-event intersection.

If events AA and CC are mutually exclusive, then P(A∩C)=0\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) = 0.
Since (A∩B∩C)(A \cap B \cap C) is a subset of (A∩C)(A \cap C), it must follow that P(A∩B∩C)=0\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = 0 as well.

2. Compare with the result from part (ii) to make a conclusion.

From part (ii), we found that P(A∩B∩C)=0.09\mathrm{P}(A \cap B \cap C) = 0.09.
Since 0.09≠00.09 \neq 0, this implies P(A∩C)≥0.09\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) \ge 0.09, and thus P(A∩C)≠0\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) \neq 0.
Therefore, events AA and CC are not mutually exclusive.

Answer

No, because P(A∩C)≥0.09\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) \ge 0.09, so P(A∩C)≠0\mathrm{P}(A \cap C) \neq 0.

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