Tim plays a game with 3 outcomes having the score of 2, 5 and 6. The corresponding probabilities are 27\dfrac{2}{7}, kk and 47\dfrac{4}{7} respectively, where kk is a constant. Tim pays $m in total to play the game twice. The outcome of each game is independent. He receives an amount corresponding to twice the absolute difference of the two scores from each game.

  1. (a)

    State the value of kk.

  2. (b)

    If Tim is expected make a profit, determine the range of values of mm.

  3. (c)

    For m=2.3m = 2.3, explain why Tim may not profit for every 2 such games that he plays.

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Worked solution

5(a)

1. Set the sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes to 1 and solve for $k$.

27+k+47=1\frac{2}{7} + k + \frac{4}{7} = 1
k=1−67k = 1 - \frac{6}{7}
k=17k = \frac{1}{7}

Answer

k=17k = \frac{1}{7}

5(b)

1. Determine the value of $k$ and the probability distribution of the absolute difference between the two scores.

From the sum of probabilities, k=1−27−47=17k = 1 - \frac{2}{7} - \frac{4}{7} = \frac{1}{7}.

Let DD be the absolute difference between the two scores. The possible differences are 0,1,30, 1, 3, and 44.
P(D=1)=P(5,6)+P(6,5)=2(17)(47)=849\mathrm{P}(D = 1) = \mathrm{P}(5,6) + \mathrm{P}(6,5) = 2 \left(\frac{1}{7}\right)\left(\frac{4}{7}\right) = \frac{8}{49}
P(D=3)=P(2,5)+P(5,2)=2(27)(17)=449\mathrm{P}(D = 3) = \mathrm{P}(2,5) + \mathrm{P}(5,2) = 2 \left(\frac{2}{7}\right)\left(\frac{1}{7}\right) = \frac{4}{49}
P(D=4)=P(2,6)+P(6,2)=2(27)(47)=1649\mathrm{P}(D = 4) = \mathrm{P}(2,6) + \mathrm{P}(6,2) = 2 \left(\frac{2}{7}\right)\left(\frac{4}{7}\right) = \frac{16}{49}

2. Calculate the expected amount Tim receives.

The expected absolute difference is:
E(D)=1(849)+3(449)+4(1649)=8+12+6449=8449=127\mathrm{E}(D) = 1\left(\frac{8}{49}\right) + 3\left(\frac{4}{49}\right) + 4\left(\frac{16}{49}\right) = \frac{8+12+64}{49} = \frac{84}{49} = \frac{12}{7}

Tim receives twice the absolute difference.
Expected Amount Received=2×E(D)=2×127=247\text{Expected Amount Received} = 2 \times \mathrm{E}(D) = 2 \times \frac{12}{7} = \frac{24}{7}

3. Determine the range of values of $m$ for an expected profit.

For Tim to be expected to make a profit, his expected amount received must be strictly greater than the cost mm.
m<247m < \frac{24}{7}
Since he pays a positive amount to play, we must also have m>0m > 0.
0<m<2470 < m < \frac{24}{7}

Answer

0<m<2470 < m < \frac{24}{7}

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