Tim plays a game with 3 outcomes having the score of 2, 5 and 6. The corresponding probabilities are , and respectively, where is a constant. Tim pays $m in total to play the game twice. The outcome of each game is independent. He receives an amount corresponding to twice the absolute difference of the two scores from each game.
- (a)
State the value of .
- (b)
If Tim is expected make a profit, determine the range of values of .
- (c)
For , explain why Tim may not profit for every 2 such games that he plays.
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Worked solution
5(a)
1. Set the sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes to 1 and solve for $k$.
5(b)
1. Determine the value of $k$ and the probability distribution of the absolute difference between the two scores.
From the sum of probabilities, .
Let be the absolute difference between the two scores. The possible differences are , and .
2. Calculate the expected amount Tim receives.
The expected absolute difference is:
Tim receives twice the absolute difference.
3. Determine the range of values of $m$ for an expected profit.
For Tim to be expected to make a profit, his expected amount received must be strictly greater than the cost .
Since he pays a positive amount to play, we must also have .
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