The waiting time for a patient to see a doctor in a clinic is TT minutes. The waiting times of a randomly chosen sample of 120 patients are summarised by ∑(t−15)=123,and∑(t−15)2=2504.\sum (t-15) = 123, \quad \text{and} \quad \sum (t-15)^2 = 2504.

  1. (i)

    Find an unbiased estimate of the population mean and show that the unbiased estimate of the population variance is 19.98319.983.

  2. (ii)

    The management of the clinic claims that the mean waiting time is 15 minutes.

    Carry out a test at the 5% significance level to determine whether the mean waiting time differs from 15 minutes.

  3. (iii)

    In another sample, the waiting times of nn patients (where n≥50n \ge 50) were recorded and a one-tail test was conducted. Given that the sample mean was tˉ=15.5\bar{t}=15.5 minutes and the null hypothesis was not rejected at the 6% level of significance, find the range of values of nn.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. Find the unbiased estimate of the population mean.

tˉ=∑(t−15)n+15\bar{t} = \frac{\sum (t-15)}{n} + 15
tˉ=123120+15=16.025\bar{t} = \frac{123}{120} + 15 = 16.025

2. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance and round to show the given value.

s2=1n−1(∑(t−15)2−(∑(t−15))2n)s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \left( \sum (t-15)^2 - \frac{(\sum (t-15))^2}{n} \right)
s2=1120−1(2504−1232120)s^2 = \frac{1}{120-1} \left( 2504 - \frac{123^2}{120} \right)
s2=1119(2504−126.075)s^2 = \frac{1}{119} \left( 2504 - 126.075 \right)
s2=2377.925119=19.98256…s^2 = \frac{2377.925}{119} = 19.98256\dots
s2≈19.983 (shown)s^2 \approx 19.983 \text{ (shown)}

Answer

Unbiased estimate of the population mean is 16.02516.025.

10(ii)

1. Calculate the sample mean from the data provided in part (i)

From part (i), the sample mean is:
tˉ=∑(t−15)n+15=123120+15=16.025\bar{t} = \frac{\sum (t-15)}{n} + 15 = \frac{123}{120} + 15 = 16.025

2. State the null and alternative hypotheses

Let μ\mu be the population mean waiting time in minutes.
H0:μ=15H_0: \mu = 15
H1:μ≠15H_1: \mu \neq 15

3. Calculate the test statistic and $p$-value

Since n=120n = 120 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean Tˉ\bar{T} is approximately normally distributed.
Under H0H_0, the test statistic is Z=Tˉ−15S/n∼N(0,1)Z = \frac{\bar{T} - 15}{S/\sqrt{n}} \sim N(0, 1) approximately.
Using the unbiased estimate of population variance S2≈19.983S^2 \approx 19.983 from part (i):
z=16.025−1519.983/120≈2.5118z = \frac{16.025 - 15}{\sqrt{19.983 / 120}} \approx 2.5118
Using a graphing calculator, the pp-value for a 2-tailed test is:
p-value=2×P(Z>2.5118)≈0.0120p\text{-value} = 2 \times P(Z > 2.5118) \approx 0.0120

4. Make a conclusion based on the $p$-value

Compare the pp-value with the level of significance α=0.05\alpha = 0.05.
Since p-value=0.0120<0.05p\text{-value} = 0.0120 < 0.05, we reject H0H_0.
There is sufficient evidence at the 5%5\% level of significance to conclude that the mean waiting time differs from 1515 minutes.

Answer

Reject H0H_0. There is sufficient evidence at the 5%5\% level of significance to conclude that the mean waiting time differs from 1515 minutes.

10(iii)

1. State the hypotheses and the test statistic, using the variance estimate from part (i).

Let μ\mu be the population mean waiting time.
H0:μ=15H_0: \mu = 15
H1:μ>15H_1: \mu > 15 (since the sample mean tˉ=15.5>15\bar{t} = 15.5 > 15 and a one-tail test was conducted)

Since n≥50n \ge 50 is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean Tˉ\bar{T} is approximately normally distributed. We use the unbiased estimate of the population variance from part (i), s2=19.983s^2 = 19.983.

Under H0H_0, the test statistic is:
Z=Tˉ−μs/n∼N(0,1) approximatelyZ = \frac{\bar{T} - \mu}{s / \sqrt{n}} \sim \mathrm{N}(0, 1) \text{ approximately}

2. Formulate an inequality for $n$ based on the non-rejection condition at the 6% significance level.

For a one-tail test at the 6%6\% level of significance, the critical value is given by z=1.5548z = 1.5548.

Since the null hypothesis was not rejected, the calculated test statistic must be less than or equal to the critical value:
zcalc≤1.5548z_{\text{calc}} \le 1.5548
15.5−1519.983/n≤1.5548\frac{15.5 - 15}{\sqrt{19.983 / n}} \le 1.5548

3. Solve the inequality to find the range of values for $n$.

0.5n19.983≤1.5548\frac{0.5 \sqrt{n}}{\sqrt{19.983}} \le 1.5548
n≤1.5548×19.9830.5\sqrt{n} \le \frac{1.5548 \times \sqrt{19.983}}{0.5}
n≤13.900\sqrt{n} \le 13.900
n≤193.22n \le 193.22

Since nn must be an integer and the question states n≥50n \ge 50, the range of values for nn is:
50≤n≤19350 \le n \le 193

Answer

50≤n≤19350 \le n \le 193

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