A game has two sets of eight icons. One icon from each set is randomly chosen to be displayed on each turn, starting with set 1. The icons for each set are as follows. For example, if a three-interlocking-circles icon is chosen from set 1 and a sailing-boat icon is chosen from set 2, the display would be (three-interlocking-circles)(sailing-boat).

  1. (a)

    Find the probability that, on one turn,

    1. (i)

      a three-interlocking-circles icon from set 1 and a three-interlocking-circles icon from set 2 (i.e. (three-interlocking-circles)(three-interlocking-circles)) is displayed.

      Answer ...

    2. (ii)

      at least one three-interlocking-circles icon is displayed.

      Answer ...

  2. (b)

    The game is now programmed such that no two same icons will appear in the display.

    For example, if an (three-interlocking-circles) icon is chosen in set 1, this icon will be removed from set 2 and an icon will be randomly chosen from the remaining six icons in set 2 as shown in the diagram below.

    If now an (graduation-cap) icon is chosen in set 2, the display would be (three-interlocking-circles)(graduation-cap).

    Draw a tree diagram to show the probabilities of all the possible outcomes.

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Worked solution

23(a)(i)

1. Find the probability of getting the required icon from each set and multiply them.

Set 1 has 44 three-interlocking-circles icons out of 88 icons.

Set 2 has 22 three-interlocking-circles icons out of 88 icons.

P(three-interlocking-circles from Set 1 and Set 2)=48×28=864=18P(\text{three-interlocking-circles from Set 1 and Set 2})=\frac{4}{8}\times\frac{2}{8}=\frac{8}{64}=\frac{1}{8}

Answer

18\dfrac{1}{8}

23(a)(ii)

1. Find the probability that no three-interlocking-circles icon is chosen from either set.

Set 1 has 44 non-three-interlocking-circles icons out of 88, and Set 2 has 66 non-three-interlocking-circles icons out of 88.

P(no three-interlocking-circles)=48×68=38P(\text{no three-interlocking-circles})=\frac{4}{8}\times\frac{6}{8}=\frac{3}{8}

2. Use the complement to find the probability of at least one three-interlocking-circles icon.

P(at least one three-interlocking-circles)=1−P(no three-interlocking-circles)P(\text{at least one three-interlocking-circles})=1-P(\text{no three-interlocking-circles})

=1−38=58=1-\frac{3}{8}=\frac{5}{8}

Answer

58\dfrac{5}{8}

23(b)

1. Write the first-stage probabilities for choosing each icon from Set 1.

Let
CC = three-interlocking-circles, SS = sailing-boat, RR = rocket, GG = graduation-cap.

Set 1 has 4C,1S,2R,1G4C, 1S, 2R, 1G, out of 88 icons.

So the first branches are
P(C)=48,P(S)=18,P(R)=28,P(G)=18.P(C)=\frac{4}{8},\quad P(S)=\frac{1}{8},\quad P(R)=\frac{2}{8},\quad P(G)=\frac{1}{8}.

2. Find the second-stage probabilities after each possible Set 1 choice, removing the same icon type from Set 2.

Set 2 originally has 2C,2S,3R,1G2C, 2S, 3R, 1G.

If CC is chosen from Set 1, remove 2C2C from Set 2. Remaining: 2S,3R,1G2S,3R,1G, total 66.
P(S∣C)=26,P(R∣C)=36,P(G∣C)=16.P(S\mid C)=\frac{2}{6},\quad P(R\mid C)=\frac{3}{6},\quad P(G\mid C)=\frac{1}{6}.

If SS is chosen from Set 1, remove 2S2S from Set 2. Remaining: 2C,3R,1G2C,3R,1G, total 66.
P(C∣S)=26,P(R∣S)=36,P(G∣S)=16.P(C\mid S)=\frac{2}{6},\quad P(R\mid S)=\frac{3}{6},\quad P(G\mid S)=\frac{1}{6}.

If RR is chosen from Set 1, remove 3R3R from Set 2. Remaining: 2C,2S,1G2C,2S,1G, total 55.
P(C∣R)=25,P(S∣R)=25,P(G∣R)=15.P(C\mid R)=\frac{2}{5},\quad P(S\mid R)=\frac{2}{5},\quad P(G\mid R)=\frac{1}{5}.

If GG is chosen from Set 1, remove 1G1G from Set 2. Remaining: 2C,2S,3R2C,2S,3R, total 77.
P(C∣G)=27,P(S∣G)=27,P(R∣G)=37.P(C\mid G)=\frac{2}{7},\quad P(S\mid G)=\frac{2}{7},\quad P(R\mid G)=\frac{3}{7}.

3. Present the complete tree diagram structure with all possible non-matching displayed pairs.

The tree diagram should show:

Set 1 branchSet 2 branches after removalC  48S  26,  R  36,  G  16S  18C  26,  R  36,  G  16R  28C  25,  S  25,  G  15G  18C  27,  S  27,  R  37\begin{array}{c|c} \text{Set 1 branch} & \text{Set 2 branches after removal} \\ \hline C\;\frac{4}{8} & S\;\frac{2}{6},\; R\;\frac{3}{6},\; G\;\frac{1}{6} \\ S\;\frac{1}{8} & C\;\frac{2}{6},\; R\;\frac{3}{6},\; G\;\frac{1}{6} \\ R\;\frac{2}{8} & C\;\frac{2}{5},\; S\;\frac{2}{5},\; G\;\frac{1}{5} \\ G\;\frac{1}{8} & C\;\frac{2}{7},\; S\;\frac{2}{7},\; R\;\frac{3}{7} \end{array}

No branch has the same icon in both positions.

Answer

Tree diagram probabilities:

  • Set 1: CC: 48\dfrac{4}{8}
    • Set 2: SS: 26\dfrac{2}{6}, RR: 36\dfrac{3}{6}, GG: 16\dfrac{1}{6}
  • Set 1: SS: 18\dfrac{1}{8}
    • Set 2: CC: 26\dfrac{2}{6}, RR: 36\dfrac{3}{6}, GG: 16\dfrac{1}{6}
  • Set 1: RR: 28\dfrac{2}{8}
    • Set 2: CC: 25\dfrac{2}{5}, SS: 25\dfrac{2}{5}, GG: 15\dfrac{1}{5}
  • Set 1: GG: 18\dfrac{1}{8}
    • Set 2: CC: 27\dfrac{2}{7}, SS: 27\dfrac{2}{7}, RR: 37\dfrac{3}{7}

where CC = three-interlocking-circles, SS = sailing-boat, RR = rocket, GG = graduation-cap.

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