某种特定品牌二手车的平均折旧价值为 yy 千美元,其折旧情况随车龄 xx 年的变化如下表所示。

  1. ((i))

    绘制散点图来展示数据。

  2. ((ii))

    结合散点图 and 问题背景,评述线性模型是否合适。

  3. ((iii))

    解释为什么在这种背景下,二次模型可能不适合进行长期预测。

  4. ((iv))

    将 ln⁡y=ax+b\ln y = ax + b 形式的模型拟合到数据中,并用它来预测一辆车龄为 5125\frac{1}{2} 年的汽车的折旧价值。

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完整解法

7((i))

1. Set up and label the coordinate axes with appropriate scales

Horizontal axis: Label as xx (Age, years) with a scale covering 22 to 88.
Vertical axis: Label as yy (Trade-in value, thousand dollars) with a scale covering 00 (or a broken axis starting from ≈25\approx 25) to 5555.

2. Plot the given data points

Plot the 7 coordinate points:
(2,53.9),(3,49.9),(4,44.8),(5,38.0),(6,34.6),(7,32.5), and (8,29.8)(2, 53.9), (3, 49.9), (4, 44.8), (5, 38.0), (6, 34.6), (7, 32.5), \text{ and } (8, 29.8).

答案

[A properly scaled scatter diagram with Age xx on the horizontal axis, Trade-in value yy on the vertical axis, and the 7 data points correctly plotted.]

7((ii))

1. State whether a linear model is appropriate based on the scatter diagram.

From the scatter diagram (plotted in part (i)), the data points follow a curve rather than a linear trend. Thus, a linear model is not appropriate.

2. State whether a linear model is appropriate based on the context of the question.

In the context of the problem, a linear model would imply a constant rate of depreciation, meaning that for a sufficiently large age xx, the trade-in value yy would become negative. Since a car's value cannot be negative, a linear model is inappropriate.

答案

A linear model is not appropriate. From the scatter diagram, the points exhibit a curved pattern rather than a straight line. Contextually, a linear model would eventually predict a negative trade-in value for the car as its age increases, which is practically impossible.

7((iii))

1. State the long-term mathematical behaviour of a quadratic model and relate it to the context.

A quadratic model y=ax2+bx+cy = ax^2 + bx + c represents a parabola. For large values of xx (long-term), if a>0a > 0, yy will eventually start to increase, which contradicts the real-world fact that an aging car's value generally depreciates and does not increase. If a<0a < 0, yy will eventually plunge to take increasingly negative values, which is impossible since a car's value cannot drop below zero. Therefore, a quadratic model is inappropriate.

答案

A quadratic curve is a parabola. For long-term predictions (as xx gets large), the value yy will either eventually increase (if the coefficient of x2x^2 is positive) or decrease to negative infinity (if the coefficient is negative), both of which are unrealistic for the depreciating value of a car.

7((iv))

1. Find the equation of the regression line of $\ln y$ on $x$ using a graphing calculator.

By keying the values of xx and corresponding values of ln⁡y\ln y into a graphing calculator, we obtain:
a=−0.10335 (to 5 s.f.)a = -0.10335 \text{ (to 5 s.f.)}
b=4.1962 (to 5 s.f.)b = 4.1962 \text{ (to 5 s.f.)}
So the fitted model is:
ln⁡y=−0.10335x+4.1962\ln y = -0.10335x + 4.1962

2. Use the regression line to estimate $y$ when $x = 5.5$.

Substitute x=5.5x = 5.5 into the regression equation:
ln⁡y=−0.10335(5.5)+4.1962\ln y = -0.10335(5.5) + 4.1962
ln⁡y=3.6278\ln y = 3.6278
y=e3.6278≈37.631y = e^{3.6278} \approx 37.631

3. State the final predicted value in context.

Since yy represents the trade-in value in thousands of dollars, the predicted value is $37 600\char36{}37\,600 (or 37.637.6 thousand dollars, correct to 3 s.f.).

答案

$37 600\char36{}37\,600 (or 37.637.6 thousand dollars)

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