A company makes portable speakers. Some speakers turn out to be faulty. Each carton has 24 portable speakers.
- (i)
State, in context, two assumptions needed for the number of faulty portable speakers in a randomly chosen carton to be well modelled by a binomial distribution.
- (ii)
It is given that 2% of the portable speakers produced are faulty.
Find the probability that a randomly chosen carton contains at most one faulty portable speaker.
- (iii)
A carton with more than one faulty portable speaker is considered as 'substandard'. Find the probability that, out of 50 cartons, there are no 'substandard' cartons.
- (iv)
The company also makes flash drives packed in batches of one hundred. The probability that a flash drive being faulty is , where . For quality control purposes, a random sample of 3 flash drives is tested from each batch.
- If there are 2 or 3 faulty flash drives, the batch is rejected.
- If there is no faulty flash drive, the batch is accepted.
- If there is one faulty flash drive in the sample, another random sample of 3 flash drives is tested and the batch is accepted if there are no faulty flash drive in the second sample. Otherwise the batch is rejected.
Find the range of such that we accept at least 95% of the batches based on this quality control method.
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Worked solution
8(i)
1. State the assumption regarding constant probability in context.
The probability of a portable speaker being faulty is constant.
2. State the assumption regarding independence in context.
Whether a portable speaker is faulty is independent of whether any other portable speaker is faulty.
- The probability of any portable speaker being faulty is constant.
- Whether a portable speaker is faulty is independent of whether any other portable speaker is faulty.
8(ii)
1. Define the random variable and state its distribution.
Let be the number of faulty portable speakers in a carton.
Since each carton has 24 speakers and the probability of a faulty speaker is , we have:
2. Calculate the probability that there is at most one faulty speaker.
We need to find .
8(iii)
1. Calculate the probability that a carton contains at most one faulty speaker (needed from part ii).
Let be the number of faulty speakers in a carton.
2. Find the probability that there are no substandard cartons out of 50.
A carton is substandard if it has more than one faulty speaker ().
Thus, a carton is not substandard if .
The probability of zero substandard cartons out of 50 is:
8(iv)
1. Define the random variable and its distribution for the number of faulty flash drives in a sample of 3.
Let be the number of faulty flash drives in a random sample of 3.
Since the status of each flash drive is independent, the number of faulty drives in any sample of 3 follows a binomial distribution:
2. Set up the probability equation for accepting a batch based on the quality control rules.
A batch is accepted in two mutually exclusive cases:
- The first sample has 0 faulty drives ().
- The first sample has 1 faulty drive () and the second independent sample has 0 faulty drives ().
3. Express the acceptance probability algebraically in terms of $p$.
Using the binomial probability formula:
Substituting these into the equation:
4. Formulate the inequality and solve for the range of $p$ using a graphing calculator.
We require the probability of accepting a batch to be at least ():
Using a graphing calculator to solve , we find the critical value .
Since decreases as the fault rate increases, the inequality holds for .
Given the problem's initial condition , the required range is:
(to 3 s.f.)
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