Alex and Ben play with each other a set of ten games at table tennis and for each game, the probability that Ben loses is 0.7.

  1. (i)

    State, in this context, an assumption needed to use a binomial distribution to model the number of games that Ben loses.

  2. (ii)

    Assume that the assumption made in part (i) holds.

    Find the probability that Ben loses more than half of the games.

  3. (iii)

    In order to improve his skills at table tennis, Ben attends an intensive training programme. After completing the training, Ben decides to play another set of nn games with Alex. Assume that the number of games Ben loses, out of these nn games, has the distribution B(n,0.3)\text{B}(n, 0.3).

    Find the greatest value of nn such that the probability that Ben loses more than 8 games is at most 0.01.

  4. (iv)

    Given that n=50n = 50, use a suitable approximation to find the probability that the number of games Ben loses is between 10 and 20 inclusive. State the parameters of the distribution that you use.

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Worked solution

10(i)

1. State one assumption required for the binomial model in the context of the question.

For a binomial model to be valid, the trials must be independent or have a constant probability of success. In this context, it assumes that the outcome of each game (whether Ben loses) is independent of the outcome of any other game.

Answer

The outcome of each game is independent of the outcomes of the other games.
(Alternatively: The probability that Ben loses a game remains constant for all the games.)

10(ii)

1. Define the random variable and formulate the required probability expression

Let XX be the number of games Ben loses out of 1010.
X∼B(10,0.7)X \sim \text{B}(10, 0.7)
Since he plays 10 games, 'more than half' means he loses strictly more than 5 games.
We need to find P(X>5)\mathrm{P}(X > 5).

2. Evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator

P(X>5)=1−P(X≤5)\mathrm{P}(X > 5) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(X \le 5)
P(X>5)=1−0.150268\mathrm{P}(X > 5) = 1 - 0.150268
P(X>5)≈0.850 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(X > 5) \approx 0.850 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.8500.850

10(iii)

1. Formulate the probability inequality using the given binomial distribution.

Let YY be the number of games Ben loses out of nn games.
Given Y∼B(n,0.3)Y \sim \text{B}(n, 0.3).
We require P(Y>8)≤0.01\mathrm{P}(Y > 8) \le 0.01.
This is equivalent to 1−P(Y≤8)≤0.011 - \mathrm{P}(Y \le 8) \le 0.01
⇒P(Y≤8)≥0.99\Rightarrow \mathrm{P}(Y \le 8) \ge 0.99

2. Use a graphing calculator to test consecutive integer values of $n$.

Using a graphing calculator to tabulate values of P(Y≤8)\mathrm{P}(Y \le 8) for different values of nn:
When n=14n = 14, P(Y≤8)=0.9917≥0.99\mathrm{P}(Y \le 8) = 0.9917 \ge 0.99
When n=15n = 15, P(Y≤8)=0.9848<0.99\mathrm{P}(Y \le 8) = 0.9848 < 0.99

3. Conclude the greatest value of $n$.

Since P(Y≤8)\mathrm{P}(Y \le 8) decreases as nn increases, the greatest value of nn that satisfies the inequality is 1414.

Answer

1414

10(iv)

1. Calculate the mean and variance of the binomial distribution to use for the approximation.

Let XX be the number of games Ben loses out of 5050.
From the question, X∼B(50,0.3)X \sim \text{B}(50, 0.3).
Mean, μ=np=50×0.3=15\mu = np = 50 \times 0.3 = 15
Variance, σ2=np(1−p)=50×0.3×(1−0.3)=10.5\sigma^2 = np(1-p) = 50 \times 0.3 \times (1 - 0.3) = 10.5

2. State the suitable approximation and its parameters.

Since nn is large, np=15>5np = 15 > 5 and n(1−p)=35>5n(1-p) = 35 > 5, a normal approximation is suitable.
Thus, XX is approximately normally distributed: X∼N(15,10.5)X \sim \text{N}(15, 10.5).
The parameters of the normal distribution used are μ=15\mu = 15 and σ2=10.5\sigma^2 = 10.5.

3. Apply the continuity correction and calculate the probability.

We need to find P(10≤X≤20)P(10 \le X \le 20).
Applying continuity correction for the continuous normal approximation:
P(10≤X≤20)≈P(10−0.5<X<20+0.5)P(10 \le X \le 20) \approx P(10 - 0.5 < X < 20 + 0.5)
=P(9.5<X<20.5)= P(9.5 < X < 20.5)
Using a graphing calculator with μ=15\mu = 15 and σ=10.5\sigma = \sqrt{10.5}:
P(9.5<X<20.5)≈0.91037≈0.910P(9.5 < X < 20.5) \approx 0.91037 \approx 0.910 (to 3 s.f.)

Answer

Parameters: μ=15\mu = 15, σ2=10.5\sigma^2 = 10.5
Probability ≈0.910\approx 0.910

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