Alex and Ben play with each other a set of ten games at table tennis and for each game, the probability that Ben loses is 0.7.
- (i)
State, in this context, an assumption needed to use a binomial distribution to model the number of games that Ben loses.
- (ii)
Assume that the assumption made in part (i) holds.
Find the probability that Ben loses more than half of the games.
- (iii)
In order to improve his skills at table tennis, Ben attends an intensive training programme. After completing the training, Ben decides to play another set of games with Alex. Assume that the number of games Ben loses, out of these games, has the distribution .
Find the greatest value of such that the probability that Ben loses more than 8 games is at most 0.01.
- (iv)
Given that , use a suitable approximation to find the probability that the number of games Ben loses is between 10 and 20 inclusive. State the parameters of the distribution that you use.
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Worked solution
10(i)
1. State one assumption required for the binomial model in the context of the question.
For a binomial model to be valid, the trials must be independent or have a constant probability of success. In this context, it assumes that the outcome of each game (whether Ben loses) is independent of the outcome of any other game.
The outcome of each game is independent of the outcomes of the other games.
(Alternatively: The probability that Ben loses a game remains constant for all the games.)
10(ii)
1. Define the random variable and formulate the required probability expression
Let be the number of games Ben loses out of .
Since he plays 10 games, 'more than half' means he loses strictly more than 5 games.
We need to find .
2. Evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator
10(iii)
1. Formulate the probability inequality using the given binomial distribution.
Let be the number of games Ben loses out of games.
Given .
We require .
This is equivalent to
2. Use a graphing calculator to test consecutive integer values of $n$.
Using a graphing calculator to tabulate values of for different values of :
When ,
When ,
3. Conclude the greatest value of $n$.
Since decreases as increases, the greatest value of that satisfies the inequality is .
10(iv)
1. Calculate the mean and variance of the binomial distribution to use for the approximation.
Let be the number of games Ben loses out of .
From the question, .
Mean,
Variance,
2. State the suitable approximation and its parameters.
Since is large, and , a normal approximation is suitable.
Thus, is approximately normally distributed: .
The parameters of the normal distribution used are and .
3. Apply the continuity correction and calculate the probability.
We need to find .
Applying continuity correction for the continuous normal approximation:
Using a graphing calculator with and :
(to 3 s.f.)
Parameters: ,
Probability
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