On average, one in 40 scientific calculators manufactured by a company is faulty. An educational store manager decides to order nn scientific calculators from the company. The event that a randomly chosen scientific calculator is faulty is independent of that of another randomly chosen calculator. The number of these scientific calculators which are faulty is denoted by the random variable XX.

  1. (i)

    State, in the context of the question, an assumption needed for XX to be well modelled by a binomial distribution.

  2. (ii)

    Assume that the number of faulty scientific calculators in the manager's order follows a binomial distribution.

    For the case when n=30n = 30, find the mean and variance for the distribution of XX and hence determine the probability that XX differs from its mean by an amount less than 2 times its standard deviation.

  3. (iii)

    Find the largest number of scientific calculators that the manager needs to order if the probability that the number of faulty calculators being more than 2 is at most 0.05.

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Worked solution

13(i)

1. State the missing assumption for a binomial model in the given context

The binomial distribution requires a fixed number of trials, independent events, two possible outcomes, and a constant probability of success. Since independence, a fixed number of trials (nn), and two outcomes (faulty or not) are already established in the question, the remaining assumption is the constant probability of success.

Answer

The probability that a randomly chosen scientific calculator is faulty remains constant.

13(ii)

1. Calculate the mean and variance for $n=30$.

Given X∼B(30,140)X \sim \mathrm{B}\left(30, \dfrac{1}{40}\right):

Mean, μ=np=30(140)=0.75\text{Mean, } \mu = np = 30 \left(\dfrac{1}{40}\right) = 0.75

Variance, σ2=np(1−p)=30(140)(3940)=117160=0.73125\text{Variance, } \sigma^2 = np(1-p) = 30 \left(\dfrac{1}{40}\right)\left(\dfrac{39}{40}\right) = \dfrac{117}{160} = 0.73125

2. Determine the interval of values that differ from the mean by less than 2 standard deviations.

Standard deviation, σ=0.73125≈0.85513\text{Standard deviation, } \sigma = \sqrt{0.73125} \approx 0.85513

We need to find the probability that ∣X−μ∣<2σ|X - \mu| < 2\sigma:
∣X−0.75∣<2(0.85513)|X - 0.75| < 2(0.85513)
∣X−0.75∣<1.7103|X - 0.75| < 1.7103
−1.7103<X−0.75<1.7103-1.7103 < X - 0.75 < 1.7103
−0.9603<X<2.4603-0.9603 < X < 2.4603

3. Identify the relevant integer values for $X$ and calculate the required probability.

Since XX represents the number of faulty calculators, it must be a non-negative integer (X=0,1,2,…,30X = 0, 1, 2, \dots, 30).
The integer values satisfying the inequality are X=0,1,2X = 0, 1, 2.

P(−0.9603<X<2.4603)=P(0≤X≤2)=P(X≤2)\mathrm{P}(-0.9603 < X < 2.4603) = \mathrm{P}(0 \le X \le 2) = \mathrm{P}(X \le 2)

Using a graphing calculator:
P(X≤2)≈0.96158\mathrm{P}(X \le 2) \approx 0.96158
P(X≤2)=0.962 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(X \le 2) = 0.962 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

Mean=0.75\text{Mean} = 0.75
Variance=0.73125\text{Variance} = 0.73125
Probability=0.962\text{Probability} = 0.962

13(iii)

1. Set up the probability inequality in terms of $n$.

Let XX be the number of faulty calculators in a sample of size nn. Then X∼B(n,140)X \sim \text{B}\left(n, \frac{1}{40}\right).
We are given that P(X>2)≤0.05\text{P}(X > 2) \le 0.05.
Using the complement rule, this is equivalent to:
1−P(X≤2)≤0.051 - \text{P}(X \le 2) \le 0.05
P(X≤2)≥0.95\text{P}(X \le 2) \ge 0.95

2. Use a graphing calculator to test integer values for $n$.

Using the table function on a graphing calculator for P(X≤2)\text{P}(X \le 2) with parameter nn:
When n=33n = 33, P(X≤2)≈0.95106>0.95\text{P}(X \le 2) \approx 0.95106 > 0.95
When n=34n = 34, P(X≤2)≈0.94729<0.95\text{P}(X \le 2) \approx 0.94729 < 0.95

3. Conclude the largest possible number of calculators.

Since P(X≤2)\text{P}(X \le 2) drops below 0.950.95 when nn increases to 3434, the maximum integer value of nn that satisfies the condition is 3333.

Answer

3333

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