Epple Company manufactures a large number of E-phones. It is known that 1% of the E-phones manufactured are defective.

  1. (a)

    A sample of 10 E-phones was randomly selected. Find the probability that at least 1 but less than 3 of them are defective.

  2. (b)

    Another sample of 10 E-phones was randomly selected. Find the probability that the tenth E-phone selected was the eighth E-phone that was not defective.

  3. (c)

    A carton, which consists of 24 E-phones, will be rejected if there exists at least two defective E-phones.

    Find the probability that a randomly chosen carton is rejected.

  4. (d)

    Samsong Company manufactures Galaxy phones. It is known that 1.5% of Galaxy phones are defective. Galaxy phones are packed into cartons of 20.

    Moon-hub retailer ordered a total of 250 cartons of E-phones and 500 cartons of Galaxy phones. By using an approximation, estimate the probability that the total number of defective Galaxy phones exceed the total number of defective E-phones by at least 100.

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Worked solution

10(a)

1. Define the random variable and its distribution

Let XX be the number of defective E-phones in a sample of 10.
X∼B(10,0.01)X \sim \mathrm{B}(10, 0.01)

2. Formulate and calculate the required probability

The probability that at least 1 but less than 3 are defective is P(1≤X<3)\mathrm{P}(1 \le X < 3).
P(1≤X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)\mathrm{P}(1 \le X \le 2) = \mathrm{P}(X = 1) + \mathrm{P}(X = 2)
=(101)(0.01)1(0.99)9+(102)(0.01)2(0.99)8= \binom{10}{1}(0.01)^1(0.99)^9 + \binom{10}{2}(0.01)^2(0.99)^8
=0.091352+0.004152= 0.091352 + 0.004152
=0.095504≈0.0955 (to 3 s.f.)= 0.095504 \approx 0.0955 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.09550.0955

10(b)

1. Translate the condition into an equivalent combination of events

For the 10th E-phone selected to be the 8th not defective E-phone, the first 9 E-phones selected must contain exactly 77 not defective E-phones (and therefore 22 defective E-phones), and the 10th E-phone must be not defective.

2. Calculate the probability using the binomial distribution and multiplication rule

P(required event)=P(exactly 7 not defective in first 9)×P(10th is not defective)=(97)(0.99)7(0.01)2×(0.99)\begin{aligned} P(\text{required event}) &= P(\text{exactly } 7 \text{ not defective in first } 9) \times P(\text{10th is not defective}) \\ &= \binom{9}{7}(0.99)^7(0.01)^2 \times (0.99) \end{aligned}

3. Evaluate the probability to 3 significant figures

P(required event)=36×(0.99)8×(0.01)2=0.00332188…≈0.00332 (to 3 s.f.)\begin{aligned} P(\text{required event}) &= 36 \times (0.99)^8 \times (0.01)^2 \\ &= 0.00332188\dots \\ &\approx 0.00332 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)} \end{aligned}

Answer

0.003320.00332

10(c)

1. Define the random variable and its distribution.

Let YY be the number of defective E-phones in a carton of 24.
Since each E-phone has a 1%1\% probability of being defective, YY follows a binomial distribution:
Y∼B(24,0.01)Y \sim \mathrm{B}(24, 0.01)

2. Calculate the probability of the carton being rejected using the complement rule.

The carton is rejected if there are at least two defective phones, so we need P(Y≥2)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 2).
Using the complement rule:
P(Y≥2)=1−P(Y≤1)\mathrm{P}(Y \ge 2) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(Y \le 1)
=1−[P(Y=0)+P(Y=1)]= 1 - [\mathrm{P}(Y = 0) + \mathrm{P}(Y = 1)]
=1−[(240)(0.01)0(0.99)24+(241)(0.01)1(0.99)23]= 1 - \left[ \binom{24}{0}(0.01)^0(0.99)^{24} + \binom{24}{1}(0.01)^1(0.99)^{23} \right]
=1−(0.785678+0.190467)= 1 - (0.785678 + 0.190467)
=0.023855…= 0.023855 \dots
≈0.0239 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.0239 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.02390.0239

10(d)

1. Define the distributions for the total number of defective phones and approximate them using the normal distribution.

Let XX be the total number of defective E-phones.
Total number of E-phones =250imes24=6000= 250 imes 24 = 6000
X∼B(6000,0.01)X \sim \text{B}(6000, 0.01)
Since nn is large, np=60>5np = 60 > 5 and n(1−p)=5940>5n(1-p) = 5940 > 5, XX can be approximated by a normal distribution:
X∼N(60,59.4)X \sim \text{N}(60, 59.4)

Let YY be the total number of defective Galaxy phones.
Total number of Galaxy phones =500imes20=10000= 500 imes 20 = 10000
Y∼B(10000,0.015)Y \sim \text{B}(10000, 0.015)
Since nn is large, np=150>5np = 150 > 5 and n(1−p)=9850>5n(1-p) = 9850 > 5, YY can be approximated by a normal distribution:
Y∼N(150,147.75)Y \sim \text{N}(150, 147.75)

2. Formulate the distribution for the difference between the two variables.

Let W=Y−XW = Y - X.
Assuming the number of defective E-phones and Galaxy phones are independent:
E(W)=E(Y)−E(X)=150−60=90\text{E}(W) = \text{E}(Y) - \text{E}(X) = 150 - 60 = 90
Var(W)=Var(Y)+Var(X)=147.75+59.4=207.15\text{Var}(W) = \text{Var}(Y) + \text{Var}(X) = 147.75 + 59.4 = 207.15
Therefore, W∼N(90,207.15)W \sim \text{N}(90, 207.15).

3. Apply the continuity correction and calculate the required probability.

We need to find the probability that Y−X≥100Y - X \ge 100.
Applying the continuity correction for the discrete variables:
P(Y−X≥100)≈P(W≥99.5)\text{P}(Y - X \ge 100) \approx \text{P}(W \ge 99.5)
=P(Z≥99.5−90207.15)= \text{P}\left(Z \ge \frac{99.5 - 90}{\sqrt{207.15}}\right)
=P(Z≥0.660056...)= \text{P}(Z \ge 0.660056...)
=0.25461...≈0.255 (to 3 s.f.)= 0.25461... \approx 0.255 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.2550.255

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