On average, one in 40 scientific calculators manufactured by a company is faulty. An educational store manager decides to order scientific calculators from the company. The event that a randomly chosen scientific calculator is faulty is independent of that of another randomly chosen calculator.
The number of these scientific calculators which are faulty is denoted by the random variable .
- (i)
State, in the context of the question, an assumption needed for to be well modelled by a binomial distribution.
- (ii)
Assume that the number of faulty scientific calculators in the managers order follows a binomial distribution.
For the case when , find the mean and variance for the distribution of and hence determine the probability that differs from its mean by an amount less than 2 times its standard deviation.
- (iii)
Find the largest number of scientific calculators that the manager needs to order if the probability that the number of faulty calculators being more than 2 is at most 0.05.
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Worked solution
13(i)
1. State the assumption required for the binomial distribution that is not already explicitly guaranteed by the question stem.
The conditions for a binomial distribution are a fixed number of trials, two possible outcomes, independent trials, and a constant probability of success. The question states that there is a fixed number of calculators () and that their faultiness is independent. Therefore, the required assumption is that the probability of success (a calculator being faulty) remains constant for each calculator.
The probability of a scientific calculator being faulty is constant.
13(ii)
1. Calculate the mean and variance of $X$.
Given and ,
\quad (or )
2. Translate the given condition into an inequality involving $X$.
We need the probability that differs from its mean by less than , which is :
3. Identify valid values of $X$ and compute the probability.
Since is the number of faulty calculators, it can only take discrete integer values. Therefore, .
Using a graphing calculator's binomial cumulative distribution function:
\text{Mean} = 0.75, \quad \text{Variance} = 0.73125
\text{Probability} = 0.962
13(iii)
1. Formulate the probability inequality for the given condition.
Let .
We are given that .
2. Evaluate the probability for consecutive integer values of $n$ using a graphing calculator.
Using the table or trial function on a graphing calculator for :
When ,
When ,
3. Identify the largest integer that satisfies the inequality.
As increases, the probability strictly decreases. Therefore, the largest possible number of calculators the manager can order is .
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