The S-I model is used to study the spread of infectious diseases across different scenarios. In this question, it is assumed that we are studying a homogeneous population in a closed community of constant size NN throughout the period of consideration. The population is divided into two groups - one group of infected individuals who have the diseases and another group of healthy and susceptible individuals who becomes infected when they come into some form of contact with the other group of infected individuals. Using xx and yy to represent the number of infected individuals and number of healthy and susceptible individuals at time tt respectively, we can model the situation using the following differential equation
dxdt=kxy,(I)\frac{\text{d}x}{\text{d}t} = kxy, \quad\quad\quad\quad \text{(I)}
where kk is a positive constant.

  1. (i)

    By expressing yy in terms of NN and xx, show that equation (I) can be rewritten in the form of a first order differential equation in terms of xx and tt. Given that x=αx = \alpha when t=0t = 0, solve this differential equation and show that the solution can be expressed in the form
    x=A1+(B−1)e−Nkt,x = \frac{A}{1 + (B - 1)\text{e}^{-Nkt}},
    where AA and BB are constants expressed in terms of NN and α\alpha.

  2. (ii)

    This model was tested using some data from the 2003 SARS epidemic in Singapore where α=1\alpha = 1, N=206N = 206, kk was estimated to be 8.1835×10−48.1835 \times 10^{-4} and time was measured in days.

    Write down the equation of the corresponding solution curve and sketch the part of the curve which is relevant to this context. (Your sketch should be suitably labelled on the axes.) State what happens to xx for large values of tt.

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Worked solution

7(i)

1. Express $y$ in terms of $N$ and $x$, and rewrite the differential equation.

Since the population size is constant at NN, the total number of individuals is the sum of infected and healthy individuals:
x+y=Nx + y = N
y=N−xy = N - x
Substituting this into equation (I):
dxdt=kx(N−x)\frac{\text{d}x}{\text{d}t} = kx(N - x)

2. Separate the variables to prepare for integration.

1x(N−x)dxdt=k\frac{1}{x(N - x)} \frac{\text{d}x}{\text{d}t} = k
∫1x(N−x) dx=∫k dt\int \frac{1}{x(N - x)} \,\text{d}x = \int k \,\text{d}t

3. Use partial fractions to split the integrand.

Let 1x(N−x)=Px+QN−x\frac{1}{x(N - x)} = \frac{P}{x} + \frac{Q}{N - x}
1=P(N−x)+Qx1 = P(N - x) + Qx
Comparing coefficients or substituting values for xx gives P=1NP = \frac{1}{N} and Q=1NQ = \frac{1}{N}.
1N∫(1x+1N−x) dx=∫k dt\frac{1}{N} \int \left( \frac{1}{x} + \frac{1}{N - x} \right) \,\text{d}x = \int k \,\text{d}t

4. Integrate both sides and combine logarithmic terms.

1N(ln⁡x−ln⁡(N−x))=kt+C\frac{1}{N} \left( \ln x - \ln(N - x) \right) = kt + C
Note: Modulus signs are not strictly necessary as 0<x<N0 < x < N (the number of infected is positive and cannot exceed the total population).
1Nln⁡(xN−x)=kt+C\frac{1}{N} \ln \left( \frac{x}{N - x} \right) = kt + C
ln⁡(xN−x)=Nkt+NC\ln \left( \frac{x}{N - x} \right) = Nkt + NC

5. Convert to exponential form to isolate the fraction.

xN−x=eNkt+NC\frac{x}{N - x} = \text{e}^{Nkt + NC}
xN−x=DeNkt\frac{x}{N - x} = D\text{e}^{Nkt}
where D=eNCD = \text{e}^{NC} is an arbitrary constant.

6. Substitute the initial condition to find the constant $D$.

Given that x=αx = \alpha when t=0t = 0:
αN−α=De0\frac{\alpha}{N - \alpha} = D\text{e}^{0}
D=αN−αD = \frac{\alpha}{N - \alpha}
Substituting DD back into the equation:
xN−x=(αN−α)eNkt\frac{x}{N - x} = \left( \frac{\alpha}{N - \alpha} \right) \text{e}^{Nkt}

7. Rearrange the equation to make $x$ the subject in the required format.

Taking the reciprocal on both sides:
N−xx=(N−αα)e−Nkt\frac{N - x}{x} = \left( \frac{N - \alpha}{\alpha} \right) \text{e}^{-Nkt}
Nx−1=(Nα−1)e−Nkt\frac{N}{x} - 1 = \left( \frac{N}{\alpha} - 1 \right) \text{e}^{-Nkt}
Nx=1+(Nα−1)e−Nkt\frac{N}{x} = 1 + \left( \frac{N}{\alpha} - 1 \right) \text{e}^{-Nkt}
x=N1+(Nα−1)e−Nktx = \frac{N}{1 + \left( \frac{N}{\alpha} - 1 \right)\text{e}^{-Nkt}}

8. State the values of constants $A$ and $B$.

Comparing with x=A1+(B−1)e−Nktx = \frac{A}{1 + (B - 1)\text{e}^{-Nkt}}:
A=NA = N
B−1=Nα−1  ⟹  B=NαB - 1 = \frac{N}{\alpha} - 1 \implies B = \frac{N}{\alpha}

Answer

dxdt=kx(N−x)\frac{\text{d}x}{\text{d}t} = kx(N - x)
x=N1+(Nα−1)e−Nktx = \frac{N}{1 + \left(\frac{N}{\alpha} - 1\right)\text{e}^{-Nkt}}
A=NA = N, B=NαB = \frac{N}{\alpha}

7(ii)

1. Determine the values of constants A, B, and the exponent coefficient from the given data.

From part (i), A=NA = N and B=NαB = \frac{N}{\alpha}.
Given α=1\alpha = 1 and N=206N = 206:
A=206A = 206
B=2061=206B = \frac{206}{1} = 206
The coefficient for tt is Nk=206×(8.1835×10−4)=0.1685801≈0.169Nk = 206 \times (8.1835 \times 10^{-4}) = 0.1685801 \approx 0.169 (to 3 s.f.).
The equation of the solution curve is:
x=2061+205e−0.169tx = \frac{206}{1 + 205\text{e}^{-0.169t}}

2. Identify key features to sketch the relevant part of the solution curve.

The context considers time t≥0t \ge 0.
At t=0t = 0, x=1x = 1. The curve starts at (0,1)(0, 1).
As t→∞t \to \infty, e−0.169t→0\text{e}^{-0.169t} \to 0, so x→206x \to 206. There is a horizontal asymptote at x=206x = 206.
Since xx models cumulative infections, it is strictly increasing.
The sketch will have a horizontal axis labeled tt and a vertical axis labeled xx. It will show a logistic 'S' shape in the first quadrant, starting at (0,1)(0, 1) and flattening out as it approaches the dotted line x=206x = 206.

3. State the long-term behavior of $x$ for large $t$.

As t→∞t \to \infty, the term e−0.169t\text{e}^{-0.169t} tends to 00.
x=2061+0=206x = \frac{206}{1 + 0} = 206
For large values of tt, xx approaches 206206. (The entire population eventually becomes infected.)

Answer

Equation: x=2061+205e−0.169tx = \dfrac{206}{1 + 205\text{e}^{-0.169t}}

For large values of tt, xx approaches 206206.

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