The S-I model is used to study the spread of infectious diseases across different scenarios. In this question, it is assumed that we are studying a homogeneous population in a closed community of constant size throughout the period of consideration. The population is divided into two groups - one group of infected individuals who have the diseases and another group of healthy and susceptible individuals who becomes infected when they come into some form of contact with the other group of infected individuals. Using and to represent the number of infected individuals and number of healthy and susceptible individuals at time respectively, we can model the situation using the following differential equation
where is a positive constant.
- (i)
By expressing in terms of and , show that equation (I) can be rewritten in the form of a first order differential equation in terms of and . Given that when , solve this differential equation and show that the solution can be expressed in the form
where and are constants expressed in terms of and . - (ii)
This model was tested using some data from the 2003 SARS epidemic in Singapore where , , was estimated to be and time was measured in days.
Write down the equation of the corresponding solution curve and sketch the part of the curve which is relevant to this context. (Your sketch should be suitably labelled on the axes.) State what happens to for large values of .
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Worked solution
7(i)
1. Express $y$ in terms of $N$ and $x$, and rewrite the differential equation.
Since the population size is constant at , the total number of individuals is the sum of infected and healthy individuals:
Substituting this into equation (I):
2. Separate the variables to prepare for integration.
3. Use partial fractions to split the integrand.
Let
Comparing coefficients or substituting values for gives and .
4. Integrate both sides and combine logarithmic terms.
Note: Modulus signs are not strictly necessary as (the number of infected is positive and cannot exceed the total population).
5. Convert to exponential form to isolate the fraction.
where is an arbitrary constant.
6. Substitute the initial condition to find the constant $D$.
Given that when :
Substituting back into the equation:
7. Rearrange the equation to make $x$ the subject in the required format.
Taking the reciprocal on both sides:
8. State the values of constants $A$ and $B$.
Comparing with :
,
7(ii)
1. Determine the values of constants A, B, and the exponent coefficient from the given data.
From part (i), and .
Given and :
The coefficient for is (to 3 s.f.).
The equation of the solution curve is:
2. Identify key features to sketch the relevant part of the solution curve.
The context considers time .
At , . The curve starts at .
As , , so . There is a horizontal asymptote at .
Since models cumulative infections, it is strictly increasing.
The sketch will have a horizontal axis labeled and a vertical axis labeled . It will show a logistic 'S' shape in the first quadrant, starting at and flattening out as it approaches the dotted line .
3. State the long-term behavior of $x$ for large $t$.
As , the term tends to .
For large values of , approaches . (The entire population eventually becomes infected.)
Equation:
For large values of , approaches .
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