A policeman inspects each passenger in the car that he stops during a roadblock. The number of passengers in a randomly stopped car is the random variable XX. The probability distribution of XX is shown in the table below.
xx12345
P(X=x)\mathrm{P}(X = x)0.320.430.160.07kk
The policeman also checks the car boot if the number of passengers in the car is not more than 2.

  1. (i)

    Find the value of kk and determine E(X)\mathrm{E}(X).

  2. (ii)

    The policeman randomly stops 10 cars to inspect the passengers at a particular roadblock, and the total number of passengers inspected is the random variable YY.

    Find E(Y)\mathrm{E}(Y) and Var⁡(Y)\operatorname{Var}(Y).

  3. (iii)

    Find the probability that he checks more than 5 car boots at that roadblock.

  4. (iv)

    Find the probability that the last car is the 5th5^{\text{th}} car boot that he checks at that roadblock.

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Worked solution

11(i)

1. Find the value of $k$ using the property that the sum of all probabilities is $1$

∑P(X=x)=1\sum \mathrm{P}(X = x) = 1
0.32+0.43+0.16+0.07+k=10.32 + 0.43 + 0.16 + 0.07 + k = 1
0.98+k=10.98 + k = 1
k=0.02k = 0.02

2. Calculate the expected value $\mathrm{E}(X)$

E(X)=∑xP(X=x)\mathrm{E}(X) = \sum x \mathrm{P}(X = x)
E(X)=1(0.32)+2(0.43)+3(0.16)+4(0.07)+5(0.02)\mathrm{E}(X) = 1(0.32) + 2(0.43) + 3(0.16) + 4(0.07) + 5(0.02)
E(X)=0.32+0.86+0.48+0.28+0.10\mathrm{E}(X) = 0.32 + 0.86 + 0.48 + 0.28 + 0.10
E(X)=2.04\mathrm{E}(X) = 2.04

Answer

k=0.02k = 0.02, E(X)=2.04\mathrm{E}(X) = 2.04

11(ii)

1. Calculate the variance of $X$ using the value of $\mathrm{E}(X)$ from part (i)

From part (i), k=0.02k = 0.02 and E(X)=2.04\mathrm{E}(X) = 2.04.

E(X2)=12(0.32)+22(0.43)+32(0.16)+42(0.07)+52(0.02)\mathrm{E}(X^2) = 1^2(0.32) + 2^2(0.43) + 3^2(0.16) + 4^2(0.07) + 5^2(0.02)
E(X2)=0.32+1.72+1.44+1.12+0.50=5.10\mathrm{E}(X^2) = 0.32 + 1.72 + 1.44 + 1.12 + 0.50 = 5.10
Var⁡(X)=E(X2)−[E(X)]2\operatorname{Var}(X) = \mathrm{E}(X^2) - [\mathrm{E}(X)]^2
Var⁡(X)=5.10−(2.04)2=0.9384\operatorname{Var}(X) = 5.10 - (2.04)^2 = 0.9384

2. Calculate $\mathrm{E}(Y)$ and $\operatorname{Var}(Y)$ for the total passengers in 10 cars

Since YY is the total number of passengers in 10 randomly stopped cars, it is the sum of 10 independent and identically distributed random variables, i.e., Y=X1+X2+⋯+X10Y = X_1 + X_2 + \dots + X_{10}.

E(Y)=10E(X)\mathrm{E}(Y) = 10\mathrm{E}(X)
E(Y)=10(2.04)=20.4\mathrm{E}(Y) = 10(2.04) = 20.4

Var⁡(Y)=10Var⁡(X)\operatorname{Var}(Y) = 10\operatorname{Var}(X)
Var⁡(Y)=10(0.9384)=9.384\operatorname{Var}(Y) = 10(0.9384) = 9.384

Answer

E(Y)=20.4\mathrm{E}(Y) = 20.4, Var⁡(Y)=9.384\operatorname{Var}(Y) = 9.384

11(iii)

1. Find the probability that a single stopped car has its boot checked.

A car boot is checked if the number of passengers is not more than 2 (X≤2X \le 2).
p=P(X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)p = \mathrm{P}(X \le 2) = \mathrm{P}(X = 1) + \mathrm{P}(X = 2)
p=0.32+0.43=0.75p = 0.32 + 0.43 = 0.75

2. Define the binomial random variable and calculate the required probability.

Let WW be the number of car boots checked out of the 10 cars stopped.
W∼B(10,0.75)W \sim \mathrm{B}(10, 0.75)
We want to find the probability that he checks more than 5 car boots:
P(W>5)=1−P(W≤5)\mathrm{P}(W > 5) = 1 - \mathrm{P}(W \le 5)
Using a graphing calculator:
P(W>5)=1−0.0781269…\mathrm{P}(W > 5) = 1 - 0.0781269 \dots
P(W>5)≈0.922 (to 3 s.f.)\mathrm{P}(W > 5) \approx 0.922 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.9220.922

11(iv)

1. Find the probability of checking a single car boot.

Let pp be the probability that the policeman checks a car boot.
The policeman checks the boot if X≤2X \le 2.
p=P(X≤2)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)p = \mathrm{P}(X \le 2) = \mathrm{P}(X = 1) + \mathrm{P}(X = 2)
p=0.32+0.43=0.75p = 0.32 + 0.43 = 0.75

2. Formulate the probability that exactly 4 boots are checked in the first 9 cars, and the 10th car boot is checked.

From part (ii), the total number of cars stopped at that roadblock is 10.
For the last (10th) car to be the 5th car boot checked, he must have checked exactly 4 car boots in the first 9 cars, followed by a boot check on the 10th car.
Let WW be the number of car boots checked in the first 9 cars. W∼B(9,0.75)W \sim \mathrm{B}(9, 0.75).
Probability=P(W=4)×p\text{Probability} = \mathrm{P}(W = 4) \times p
Probability=(94)(0.75)4(0.25)5×0.75\text{Probability} = \binom{9}{4}(0.75)^4(0.25)^5 \times 0.75

3. Evaluate the final probability.

Probability=126×(0.75)5×(0.25)5\text{Probability} = 126 \times (0.75)^5 \times (0.25)^5
Probability=0.029199⋯≈0.0292 (to 3 s.f.)\text{Probability} = 0.029199\dots \approx 0.0292 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.02920.0292

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