On a Friday evening, the class chairperson emails his 20 classmates to propose an outing to watch a newly released action thriller. The random variable is the number of classmates who respond positively to his email that weekend. It is assumed that has the distribution such that . On each weekday morning, the class chairperson draws a name from a bag containing the names of all the students in the class. The chairperson notes the name and then puts it back into the bag. The person whose name is drawn will be responsible for keeping the homeroom tidy for that day. The class consists of 12 girls and 9 boys. The random variable is the number of days, out of a 5-day week, in which a girl is picked to be on duty.
- ((i))
Given that , formulate an equation for , and find its numerical value.
- ((ii))
Explain in context clearly why the random variable is more suited to be modelled by a binomial distribution than .
- ((iii))
Find the probability that in a week, a girl is on duty more often than a boy.
- ((iv))
Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that in a semester of 20 weeks, there are less than 11 weeks in which a girl is on duty more often than a boy in the week.
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Worked solution
12((i))
1. Formulate the equation for $p$ using the binomial probability formula.
Given
Since and are mutually exclusive events:
Using the binomial formula :
2. Solve the equation for $p$ using a graphing calculator.
Using a graphing calculator to solve for the given domain :
12((ii))
1. Explain why $Y$ satisfies the conditions for a binomial distribution in context.
For , since the drawn name is put back into the bag (with replacement), the events are independent and the probability of picking a girl remains constant at for each of the 5 days.
2. Explain why $X$ does not perfectly satisfy the conditions for a binomial distribution in context.
For , the responses of the 20 classmates are likely not independent, as friends might influence each other's decision to attend the outing together. Additionally, the probability of a positive response is not identical for every student, as individuals have different preferences for action thrillers or different weekend commitments.
For , the name drawn is put back into the bag, which ensures the probability of picking a girl remains constant each day and the draws are independent. For , the classmates' responses are likely not independent as friends may influence each other's decisions to go for the outing. Furthermore, the probability of a positive response is not constant for all classmates, as different students have different movie preferences or weekend schedules.
12((iii))
1. Establish the probability distribution for $Y$.
The total number of students is .
The probability of choosing a girl on any given day is .
Since the days are independent and names are replaced, .
2. Determine the condition for a girl to be on duty more often than a boy.
In a 5-day week, for a girl to be on duty more often than a boy, she must be on duty for , , or days.
Therefore, we need to find .
3. Calculate the required probability.
Using a graphing calculator,
0.632
12((iv))
1. Calculate the probability from part (iii) and define the binomial distribution for the semester.
From part (iii), let be the number of days a girl is on duty in a 5-day week.
For a girl to be on duty more often than a boy, she must be on duty for at least 3 days:
Let be the number of weeks in a 20-week semester where a girl is on duty more often than a boy.
2. Verify the conditions for a normal approximation and calculate its mean and variance.
We check if a normal approximation is suitable by computing and :
Since both values are greater than , can be approximated by a normal distribution where:
3. Apply continuity correction and find the approximate probability.
We want the probability that there are less than 11 such weeks, which is .
Applying the continuity correction for the upper bound of a discrete interval, we use :
Using the normal distribution :
The required probability is (to 3 s.f.).
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