On a Friday evening, the class chairperson emails his 20 classmates to propose an outing to watch a newly released action thriller. The random variable XX is the number of classmates who respond positively to his email that weekend. It is assumed that XX has the distribution B(20,p)B(20,p) such that 0<p≤0.50 < p \le 0.5. On each weekday morning, the class chairperson draws a name from a bag containing the names of all the students in the class. The chairperson notes the name and then puts it back into the bag. The person whose name is drawn will be responsible for keeping the homeroom tidy for that day. The class consists of 12 girls and 9 boys. The random variable YY is the number of days, out of a 5-day week, in which a girl is picked to be on duty.

  1. ((i))

    Given that P(X=0 or 19)=0.1P(X = 0 \text{ or } 19) = 0.1, formulate an equation for pp, and find its numerical value.

  2. ((ii))

    Explain in context clearly why the random variable YY is more suited to be modelled by a binomial distribution than XX.

  3. ((iii))

    Find the probability that in a week, a girl is on duty more often than a boy.

  4. ((iv))

    Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that in a semester of 20 weeks, there are less than 11 weeks in which a girl is on duty more often than a boy in the week.

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Worked solution

12((i))

1. Formulate the equation for $p$ using the binomial probability formula.

Given P(X=0 or 19)=0.1P(X = 0 \text{ or } 19) = 0.1
Since X=0X = 0 and X=19X = 19 are mutually exclusive events:
P(X=0)+P(X=19)=0.1P(X = 0) + P(X = 19) = 0.1

Using the binomial formula P(X=x)=(nx)px(1−p)n−xP(X = x) = \binom{n}{x}p^x(1-p)^{n-x}:
(200)p0(1−p)20+(2019)p19(1−p)1=0.1\binom{20}{0}p^0(1-p)^{20} + \binom{20}{19}p^{19}(1-p)^1 = 0.1
(1−p)20+20p19(1−p)=0.1(1-p)^{20} + 20p^{19}(1-p) = 0.1

2. Solve the equation for $p$ using a graphing calculator.

Using a graphing calculator to solve (1−p)20+20p19(1−p)−0.1=0(1-p)^{20} + 20p^{19}(1-p) - 0.1 = 0 for the given domain 0<p≤0.50 < p \le 0.5:
p=0.108749…p = 0.108749\dots
p≈0.109 (to 3 s.f.)p \approx 0.109 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

(1−p)20+20p19(1−p)=0.1(1-p)^{20} + 20p^{19}(1-p) = 0.1
p=0.109p = 0.109

12((ii))

1. Explain why $Y$ satisfies the conditions for a binomial distribution in context.

For YY, since the drawn name is put back into the bag (with replacement), the events are independent and the probability of picking a girl remains constant at 1221\frac{12}{21} for each of the 5 days.

2. Explain why $X$ does not perfectly satisfy the conditions for a binomial distribution in context.

For XX, the responses of the 20 classmates are likely not independent, as friends might influence each other's decision to attend the outing together. Additionally, the probability of a positive response is not identical for every student, as individuals have different preferences for action thrillers or different weekend commitments.

Answer

For YY, the name drawn is put back into the bag, which ensures the probability of picking a girl remains constant each day and the draws are independent. For XX, the classmates' responses are likely not independent as friends may influence each other's decisions to go for the outing. Furthermore, the probability of a positive response is not constant for all classmates, as different students have different movie preferences or weekend schedules.

12((iii))

1. Establish the probability distribution for $Y$.

The total number of students is 12+9=2112 + 9 = 21.
The probability of choosing a girl on any given day is p=1221=47p = \frac{12}{21} = \frac{4}{7}.
Since the days are independent and names are replaced, Y∼B(5,47)Y \sim \text{B}\left(5, \frac{4}{7}\right).

2. Determine the condition for a girl to be on duty more often than a boy.

In a 5-day week, for a girl to be on duty more often than a boy, she must be on duty for 33, 44, or 55 days.
Therefore, we need to find P(Y≥3)P(Y \ge 3).

3. Calculate the required probability.

P(Y≥3)=1−P(Y≤2)P(Y \ge 3) = 1 - P(Y \le 2)
Using a graphing calculator,
P(Y≥3)=1062416807≈0.63212P(Y \ge 3) = \frac{10624}{16807} \approx 0.63212
≈0.632 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.632 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.632

12((iv))

1. Calculate the probability from part (iii) and define the binomial distribution for the semester.

From part (iii), let Y∼B(5,1221)=B(5,47)Y \sim \text{B}\left(5, \frac{12}{21}\right) = \text{B}\left(5, \frac{4}{7}\right) be the number of days a girl is on duty in a 5-day week.
For a girl to be on duty more often than a boy, she must be on duty for at least 3 days:
P(Y≥3)=P(Y=3)+P(Y=4)+P(Y=5)P(Y \ge 3) = P(Y=3) + P(Y=4) + P(Y=5)
P(Y≥3)=(53)(47)3(37)2+(54)(47)4(37)+(55)(47)5=1062416807≈0.63212P(Y \ge 3) = \binom{5}{3}\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^3\left(\frac{3}{7}\right)^2 + \binom{5}{4}\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^4\left(\frac{3}{7}\right) + \binom{5}{5}\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^5 = \frac{10624}{16807} \approx 0.63212
Let WW be the number of weeks in a 20-week semester where a girl is on duty more often than a boy.
W∼B(20,1062416807)W \sim \text{B}\left(20, \frac{10624}{16807}\right)

2. Verify the conditions for a normal approximation and calculate its mean and variance.

We check if a normal approximation is suitable by computing npnp and n(1−p)n(1-p):
np=20(1062416807)≈12.64>5np = 20 \left(\frac{10624}{16807}\right) \approx 12.64 > 5
n(1−p)=20(1−1062416807)≈7.36>5n(1-p) = 20 \left(1 - \frac{10624}{16807}\right) \approx 7.36 > 5
Since both values are greater than 55, WW can be approximated by a normal distribution Wnorm∼N(μ,σ2)W_{\text{norm}} \sim \text{N}(\mu, \sigma^2) where:
μ=np=21248016807≈12.642\mu = np = \frac{212480}{16807} \approx 12.642
σ2=np(1−p)=12.64235×618316807≈4.6509\sigma^2 = np(1-p) = 12.64235 \times \frac{6183}{16807} \approx 4.6509

3. Apply continuity correction and find the approximate probability.

We want the probability that there are less than 11 such weeks, which is P(W<11)=P(W≤10)P(W < 11) = P(W \le 10).
Applying the continuity correction for the upper bound of a discrete interval, we use 10.510.5:
P(W≤10)≈P(Wnorm≤10.5)P(W \le 10) \approx P(W_{\text{norm}} \le 10.5)
Using the normal distribution N(12.642,4.6509)\text{N}(12.642, 4.6509):
P(Wnorm≤10.5)≈0.16026P(W_{\text{norm}} \le 10.5) \approx 0.16026
The required probability is 0.1600.160 (to 3 s.f.).

Answer

0.1600.160

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