In a city of 5 million people, the number of customers of a new company increases at a rate proportional to the number of people who are not its customers. The company determines that in order for its business to be profitable, it must have at least 1 million customers at any point in time. The company has 1 million customers at the end of the third year of operation, starting from a customer base of 0. Assume that the population remains unchanged at any point in time.

  1. (i)

    State a differential equation involving yy and tt, where yy is the number of customers (in millions) and tt is the number of years from the time the company starts its operation. Hence show that y=5(1−e−kt)y = 5(1 - e^{-kt}), where kk is a constant to be determined.

  2. (ii)

    Sketch the graph of yy against tt.

  3. (iii)

    At the end of the 6th year of operation, the company has a customer base of 1.8 million. However, due to new competitors, the growth rate of its number of customers is now modelled by the equation

    d2ydt2=−0.1.\frac{d^2 y}{dt^2} = -0.1.

    It is known that under this model, its number of customers would drop to 1.65 million at the end of the following year of operation.

    Determine in which year the company's business will become unprofitable.

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Worked solution

11(i)

1. Formulate the differential equation from the problem situation.

Let yy be the number of customers (in millions) and tt be the time in years.
The total population is 5 million. The number of people who are not customers is (5−y)(5 - y).
Since the rate of increase is proportional to this number:
dydt=k(5−y)\frac{\mathrm{d}y}{\mathrm{d}t} = k(5 - y)
where kk is a constant of proportionality.

2. Solve the differential equation by separating variables.

∫15−y dy=∫k dt\int \frac{1}{5 - y} \,\mathrm{d}y = \int k \,\mathrm{d}t
−ln⁡∣5−y∣=kt+c-\ln|5 - y| = kt + c
Since y<5y < 5, ∣5−y∣=5−y|5 - y| = 5 - y.
5−y=e−(kt+c)5 - y = e^{-(kt + c)}
5−y=Ae−ktwhere A=e−c5 - y = A e^{-kt} \quad \text{where } A = e^{-c}
y=5−Ae−kty = 5 - A e^{-kt}

3. Use the initial condition to find $A$ and show the given equation.

The company starts with a customer base of 0, so when t=0t = 0, y=0y = 0.
0=5−Ae00 = 5 - A e^{0}
A=5A = 5
Substituting A=5A = 5 back into the equation:
y=5−5e−kty = 5 - 5e^{-kt}
y=5(1−e−kt)(Shown)y = 5(1 - e^{-kt}) \quad \text{(Shown)}

4. Determine the value of the constant $k$ using the customer base at the end of year 3.

When t=3t = 3, y=1y = 1.
1=5(1−e−3k)1 = 5(1 - e^{-3k})
15=1−e−3k\frac{1}{5} = 1 - e^{-3k}
e−3k=1−0.2=0.8e^{-3k} = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8
−3k=ln⁡0.8-3k = \ln 0.8
k=−13ln⁡0.8=13ln⁡1.25k = -\frac{1}{3} \ln 0.8 = \frac{1}{3} \ln 1.25
k≈0.0744 (to 3 s.f.)k \approx 0.0744 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

dydt=k(5−y)\frac{\mathrm{d}y}{\mathrm{d}t} = k(5 - y)

k=13ln⁡1.25≈0.0744 (to 3 s.f.)k = \frac{1}{3}\ln 1.25 \approx 0.0744 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

11(ii)

1. Determine the starting point and long-term behaviour (asymptote) of the graph.

Given y=5(1−e−kt)y = 5(1 - e^{-kt}) from part (i) with k>0k > 0.
At the start of the operation, t=0t = 0:
y=5(1−e0)=0y = 5(1 - e^0) = 0
So the graph starts at the origin (0,0)(0,0).

As t→∞t \to \infty, the term e−kt→0e^{-kt} \to 0.
y→5(1−0)=5y \to 5(1 - 0) = 5
This indicates a horizontal asymptote at y=5y = 5.

2. Identify the shape and sketch the required features.

The function represents an exponential growth model restricted to t≥0t \ge 0.
Since dydt>0\frac{dy}{dt} > 0 and d2ydt2<0\frac{d^2y}{dt^2} < 0, the curve is strictly increasing but at a decreasing rate (concave down).
The student should draw axes labelled tt and yy, mark the origin, draw the dashed asymptote y=5y=5, and sketch the concave-down curve rising from (0,0)(0,0) towards y=5y=5. The point (3,1)(3,1) given in the context can also be plotted for completeness.

Answer

[Graph sketch featuring:]

  • Axes labelled tt (horizontal, for t≥0t \ge 0) and yy (vertical).
  • A continuous curve starting exactly from the origin (0,0)(0,0).
  • The curve increases monotonically in the first quadrant with a decreasing gradient (concave down).
  • A dashed horizontal line at y=5y = 5, clearly labelled as the asymptote.
  • The curve approaches y=5y = 5 from below as t→∞t \to \infty.
  • (Optional but recommended) The known point (3,1)(3, 1) indicated on the curve.

11(iii)

1. Integrate the given second-order differential equation to find the general equation for $y$.

d2ydt2=−0.1\frac{d^2 y}{dt^2} = -0.1

Integrating with respect to tt:
dydt=−0.1t+c\frac{dy}{dt} = -0.1t + c

Integrating again with respect to tt:
y=−0.05t2+ct+dy = -0.05t^2 + ct + d

2. Use the given initial conditions at $t=6$ and $t=7$ to determine the constants $c$ and $d$.

At the end of the 6th year (t=6t = 6), y=1.8y = 1.8:
1.8=−0.05(6)2+6c+d1.8 = -0.05(6)^2 + 6c + d
1.8=−1.8+6c+d  ⟹  6c+d=3.6— (1)1.8 = -1.8 + 6c + d \implies 6c + d = 3.6 \quad \text{--- (1)}

At the end of the 7th year (t=7t = 7), y=1.65y = 1.65:
1.65=−0.05(7)2+7c+d1.65 = -0.05(7)^2 + 7c + d
1.65=−2.45+7c+d  ⟹  7c+d=4.1— (2)1.65 = -2.45 + 7c + d \implies 7c + d = 4.1 \quad \text{--- (2)}

Subtracting (1) from (2):
c=4.1−3.6=0.5c = 4.1 - 3.6 = 0.5

Substituting c=0.5c = 0.5 into (1):
6(0.5)+d=3.6  ⟹  3+d=3.6  ⟹  d=0.66(0.5) + d = 3.6 \implies 3 + d = 3.6 \implies d = 0.6

So, the model for the number of customers (for t≥6t \ge 6) is:
y=−0.05t2+0.5t+0.6y = -0.05t^2 + 0.5t + 0.6

3. Formulate an inequality to find when the business becomes unprofitable.

The business is profitable as long as y≥1y \ge 1. It becomes unprofitable when y<1y < 1.
−0.05t2+0.5t+0.6<1-0.05t^2 + 0.5t + 0.6 < 1
−0.05t2+0.5t−0.4<0-0.05t^2 + 0.5t - 0.4 < 0

Dividing by −0.05-0.05 (which flips the inequality sign):
t2−10t+8>0t^2 - 10t + 8 > 0

4. Solve the quadratic inequality to find the critical value of $t$.

First, find the roots of t2−10t+8=0t^2 - 10t + 8 = 0 using the quadratic formula:
t=10±(−10)2−4(1)(8)2=10±682=5±17t = \frac{10 \pm \sqrt{(-10)^2 - 4(1)(8)}}{2} = \frac{10 \pm \sqrt{68}}{2} = 5 \pm \sqrt{17}
t≈0.877ort≈9.123t \approx 0.877 \quad \text{or} \quad t \approx 9.123

Since the new model starts at t=6t = 6, we take the root t=5+17≈9.123t = 5 + \sqrt{17} \approx 9.123.
The inequality t2−10t+8>0t^2 - 10t + 8 > 0 for t≥6t \ge 6 gives:
t>9.123t > 9.123

5. Interpret the value of $t$ to state the specific year.

Since tt represents the number of years from the start, the 1st year is 0<t≤10 < t \le 1, the 2nd year is 1<t≤21 < t \le 2, and so on.
The time t=9.123t = 9.123 falls in the interval 9<t<109 < t < 10.

Therefore, the business will become unprofitable during the 10th year of operation.

Answer

10th year

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