A teacher conducts a survey on 7 students to investigate the relationship between the number of hours (hh) of "screen-time" per week and the average scores (ss) they obtained in a recently concluded examination. She records her findings as shown in the following table.
hh8.514202710.51723
ss68614412α\alpha5831

  1. (a)

    Given that the regression line of ss on hh is s=−3.00799h+100.27974s = -3.00799h + 100.27974, show that α=67.0\alpha = 67.0.

  2. (b)

    Draw a scatter diagram for the data.

  3. (c)

    Explain why s=kh2+cs = kh^2 + c is the better model compared to the one in part (a), by giving appropriate reasons. State the values of kk and cc.

  4. (d)

    Using the better model, estimate the score a student can expect to obtain if he spends 7 hours of screen-time a week. Comment on the reliability of the estimate obtained.

  5. (e)

    The teacher observes a trend from her findings and concludes with a statement: Increased screen-time will cause the exam scores to decrease. Comment on the validity of the statement.

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Worked solution

9(a)

1. Find the sample mean of $h$ and express the sample mean of $s$ in terms of $\alpha$.

hˉ=8.5+14+20+27+10.5+17+237=1207\bar{h} = \frac{8.5 + 14 + 20 + 27 + 10.5 + 17 + 23}{7} = \frac{120}{7}

sˉ=68+61+44+12+α+58+317=274+α7\bar{s} = \frac{68 + 61 + 44 + 12 + \alpha + 58 + 31}{7} = \frac{274 + \alpha}{7}

2. Substitute $(\bar{h}, \bar{s})$ into the given regression line equation and solve for $\alpha$.

The regression line s=−3.00799h+100.27974s = -3.00799h + 100.27974 must pass through the mean point (hˉ,sˉ)(\bar{h}, \bar{s}).

274+α7=−3.00799(1207)+100.27974\frac{274 + \alpha}{7} = -3.00799 \left(\frac{120}{7}\right) + 100.27974

Multiplying by 77 throughout:
274+α=−3.00799(120)+7(100.27974)274 + \alpha = -3.00799(120) + 7(100.27974)
274+α=−360.9588+701.95818274 + \alpha = -360.9588 + 701.95818
274+α=340.99938274 + \alpha = 340.99938
α=66.99938\alpha = 66.99938

Rounding to 3 significant figures:
α≈67.0 (shown)\alpha \approx 67.0 \text{ (shown)}

Answer

α≈67.0\alpha \approx 67.0 (shown)

9(b)

1. Set up axes and plot the data points.

Set up a Cartesian coordinate system with hh on the horizontal axis and ss on the vertical axis using appropriate scales (e.g., hh from 00 to 3030, ss from 00 to 8080).

Plot the 7 data points from the table, using the value α=67.0\alpha = 67.0 from part (a):
(8.5,68)(8.5, 68)
(10.5,67)(10.5, 67)
(14,61)(14, 61)
(17,58)(17, 58)
(20,44)(20, 44)
(23,31)(23, 31)
(27,12)(27, 12)

Answer

[A valid scatter diagram with hh on the horizontal axis, ss on the vertical axis, and 7 correct data points plotted]

9(c)

1. Evaluate and compare the product moment correlation coefficients for both models, and relate back to the scatter diagram.

For the linear model s=ah+bs = ah + b, the product moment correlation coefficient is r1≈−0.961r_1 \approx -0.961.
By tabulating (h2,s)(h^2, s), the product moment correlation coefficient for ss against h2h^2 is r2≈−0.991r_2 \approx -0.991.
Since r2r_2 is closer to −1-1 than r1r_1, there is a stronger negative linear correlation between ss and h2h^2 than between ss and hh.
Additionally, the scatter diagram from part (b) shows that the data points follow a curve downwards rather than a straight line.
Hence, s=kh2+cs = kh^2 + c is a better model for the data.

2. Find the values of $k$ and $c$ using the linear regression of $s$ on $h^2$.

Using a graphing calculator to find the regression line of ss on h2h^2 with data points (h2,s)(h^2, s):
s=−0.0873305h2+77.7268s = -0.0873305 h^2 + 77.7268
Thus, k=−0.0873k = -0.0873 (to 3 s.f.) and c=77.7c = 77.7 (to 3 s.f.).

Answer

The model s=kh2+cs = kh^2 + c is better because its correlation coefficient (r=−0.991r = -0.991) is closer to −1-1 than that of the linear model (r=−0.961r = -0.961), and the scatter diagram shows a curvilinear trend.

k=−0.0873k = -0.0873, c=77.7c = 77.7

9(d)

1. Calculate the parameters of the model $s = kh^2 + c$ from the data, then estimate the score for $h = 7$.

From part (c), by performing a linear regression of ss on h2h^2 using a graphing calculator, we obtain:
k≈−0.087331k \approx -0.087331 and c≈77.727c \approx 77.727

Substitute h=7h = 7 into the model to find ss:
s=−0.087331(7)2+77.727s = -0.087331(7)^2 + 77.727
s=−4.2792+77.727s = -4.2792 + 77.727
s=73.4478≈73.4s = 73.4478 \approx 73.4 (to 3 s.f.)

2. Comment on the reliability of the estimate.

The recorded data values for hh range from 8.58.5 to 2727.
Since h=7h = 7 falls outside the given data range, the prediction requires extrapolation.
Therefore, the estimate is unreliable.

Answer

Estimated score is 73.473.4. The estimate is unreliable as it involves extrapolation.

9(e)

1. Evaluate the validity of the causal claim based on the statistical trend.

The teacher's statement is not valid. While the data shows a negative trend (or correlation) between screen-time and exam scores, correlation does not imply causation. There could be other underlying factors affecting the exam scores.

Answer

The statement is not valid. Correlation does not imply causation.

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